DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 05/03 06:17
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 05/03 06:17 Further Strength Likely in Cattle Friday Cattle futures received positive news from numerous avenues Thursday, pushing contracts higher. Maybe traders can put the avian flu concerns behind them for now. Hog futures struggled throughout Thursday, resulting in a mixed close. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $216.91 -$0.39* Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $103.70 -$0.11** *Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue. GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle had a strong open and higher trade throughout Thursday. Initial support came from good beef exports totaling 22,500 metric tons (mt), which was a marketing year high. Then there was the announcement that no avian flu matter was found in ground beef that had been tested. On top of that, cash cattle began trading $1.00 to $2.00 higher. What was there not to like about the fundamental news? Traders supported the market aggressively, but maybe not as aggressively as one would have thought based on not finding traces of avian flu in ground beef. There remains the matter of consumer perception and whether this will put the concern of the avian flu in beef behind us. It certainly is a step in the right direction. The weakness of boxed beef remains a concern with choice down $0.64 and select down $0.09.
DTN Early Word Grains 05/03 06:32
DTN Early Word Grains 05/03 06:32 Grain Markets Higher Again Friday, Primarily on U.S., Global Weather July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 8 3/4 cents, July KC wheat is up 17 cents, July Chicago wheat is up 13 1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is up 4 3/4 cents. Kent Beadle, DTN Contributing Analyst EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 8 3/4 cents, July KC wheat is up 17 cents, July Chicago wheat is up 13 1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is up 4 3/4 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: World equity markets are mostly higher after Thursday's rally in U.S. markets that regained much of what was lost in the late session selloff on Wednesday. The rally on Thursday was primarily driven by the dovish comments from Fed Chairman Powell and his insistence that any rate increases are still off the table. Friday morning, we will get the April employment report and the trade is looking for 240,000 jobs. That will be the key driver of price action after its release. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 322.37 at 38,225.66 and the S&P 500 up 45.81 at 5,064.20, The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.643%. Early Friday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 318 points. European markets are mixed/higher/lower with the spot futures of London's FTSE 100 trading up 0.49%, spot futures of Germany's DAX is trading up 0.49% and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index up 0.73%. Asian markets are mixed/higher/lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is steady and the China's Shanghai Composite Index remains closed on holiday.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/03 10:46
DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/03 10:46 Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Higher by Midday Friday Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher. Beans are 5 to 7 cents higher and wheat trade is 11 to 25 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is firmer at midday with the S&P 50 points higher. The dollar index is 30 points lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energies have crude .40 cent lower and natural gas .07 cent higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher with cattle leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $6.40. CORN: Corn is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade pressing through nearby resistance levels with broad strength in ags to start Friday, but we have started to see spreads and momentum soften. Ethanol margins have narrowed with corn rebounding and unleaded struggling with better spring demand needed to boost production ideas. Near-term weather looks to keep rain chances in play for much of the belt into next week with planting progress likely slower in many areas with cooler temps for many as well. The daily wire was quiet again today. The recent patterns in South America continue with some short-term dryness for double-crop corn areas along with excess rain causing disease issues in other first-crop areas. On the July chart, the 20-day at $4.48 is nearby support with the fresh higher at 4.68 the next level of resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybeans are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade pushing past $12 upfront again with meals leading to the product complex starting to ease at midday again after the big early strength. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. South American bushels should continue to attract the most export attention as harvest rolls on in South America with excess rains hindering some areas. The daily wire saw 122,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown. Planting progress is likely slow due to rains but there is plenty of window at this point before major concerns would show up. July soybean futures have resistance at the $12.40 recent high. Chart support is at the 20-day moving average at $11.77 which we moved back above at midweek. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 11 to 25 cents higher with winter wheat action leading as we move back to the upper end of the range after the midweek struggles with broad ags buying this morning and spillover support from European prices surging again. The Plains will see seasonal to above-normal temps to push the crop along with better overall rain chances into the next week with the west the least favored, while Black Sea forecasts have dried a bit again short term. The dollar continues to drift lower with MATIF wheat sharply higher to close the week. On the KC July Chart support is the 20-day at $6.07, with the fresh high at 6.64 as further resistance. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/03 11:40
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/03 11:40
Southern Feedlots Hold Out for More Money
Packers have offered bids of $184 in the South, but with feedlot's asking
prices firm at $186 plus, no Southern live cattle have traded yet.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are trading higher as the
cash cattle market's higher trend is encouraging to the entire cattle complex.
Southern cattle have yet to trade, but feedlots seem determined to get more
money again this week. July corn is down 1 cent per bushel and July soybean
meal is up $3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 436.46 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
With cash cattle prices trending higher and midday boxed beef prices higher
-- it wasn't hard for traders to decide to trade the live cattle contracts
higher. The Southern Plains still hasn't seen any cattle trade, but bids are
currently being offered. Bids of $184 are currently being offered in both Texas
and Kansas, but with feedlots firm in their $186 asking price -- packers are
going to need to get more aggressive in order to get any cattle bought. There
were some cattle traded on Thursday in the North at $295, which is $1.00 higher
than last week's weighted average, but now Northern feedlots have upped their
asking price to $296. June live cattle are up $0.20 at $177.00, August live
cattle are up $0.87 at $174.82 and October live cattle are up $1.00 at $178.37.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.02 ($294.92) and select up $0.51
($288.49) with a movement of 59 loads (28.04 loads of choice, 10.64 loads of
select, 7.51 loads of trim and 12.79 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the cash cattle market again seeing higher prices -- the feeder cattle
complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's afternoon. With the big
summertime videos scheduled to begin in about six weeks, feeders find it very
encouraging that cash cattle prices are trending higher which could trickle
down and support upcoming feeder cattle sales. May feeders are up $0.15 at
$243.75, August feeders are down $0.02 at $255.20 and September feeders are up
$0.27 at $256.25.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is once again trading lower as the market can't seem to
gain momentum. Yes, midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders seem
unwilling to support the complex ahead of the week's close. Next Friday the
market will receive the latest WASDE report which could help shine light onto
the lean hog market's immediate direction as both production and export
forecasts will be shared for the upcoming months. June lean hogs are down $0.70
at $99.22, July lean hogs are down $0.50 at $103.05 and August lean hogs are
down $0.42 at $101.77.
The projected lean hog index for 5/2/2024 is up $0.04 at $90.96, and the
actual index for 5/1/2024 is up $0.32 at $90.92. Hog prices are higher on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.10 with a weighted average price of
$90.53, ranging from $87.50 to $95.00 on 1,538 head and a five-day rolling
average of $90.69. Pork cutouts totaled 159.07 loads with 143.98 loads of pork
cuts and 15.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.49, $99.37.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs
DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/03 14:05
DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/03 14:05 Winter Wheat Prices Lead Grains Higher, While Soybean Oil Ends Near New 3-Year Low July Chicago wheat closed up 18 1/4 cents at $6.22 1/2, Friday's largest percentage gainer in the grain-related sector with more rain expected on a soggy SRW wheat crop next week. November soybeans closed up 13 1/4 cents at a new one-month high, but July soybean oil fell to its lowest weekly close in over three years. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: July corn closed up 1/2 cent and December corn was up 3 1/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 16 cents and November soybeans were up 13 1/4 cents. July KC wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 18 1/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 5 1/4 cents.
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/03 15:53
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/03 15:53 Cash Cattle Trade $1.00 to $2.00 Higher The cash cattle market scored again this week as sales were marked $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed mostly higher amid stronger cash cattle sales. The lean hog complex didn't see much support as traders were apprehensive of overly supporting the market ahead of the weekend. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.40 with a weighted average price of $89.38 on 1,990 head. July corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 454.71 points.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 05/02 15:45
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 05/02/24
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 6,893 WEEK TO DATE: 7,996
STEERS LIVE FOB
3,333 184.00-184.50 184.00-184.00 184.02
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
213 187.00-187.00 187.00-187.00 187.00
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
2,074 184.00-184.00 184.00-184.00 184.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 678 WEEK TO DATE: 22,359
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,963 WEEK TO DATE: 2,100
STEERS LIVE FOB
1,685 184.00-184.00 184.00-184.00 184.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
168 184.00-184.00 184.00-184.00 184.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 733 WEEK TO DATE: 28,812
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
160 295.00-296.00 295.00-296.00 295.75
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: A light trade took place in the South today with live deals
marked at $184, $2 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed
business this week was at mostly $295, $1 higher than the prior week's weighted
averages.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $186.77(1497) HIDE&OFFAL: $11.28 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) HEAD
SUPPLY (Live) $281.10 $271.74 54,242
DEMAND (Box) $282.20 $275.65 49,568
INDEX VALUE $281.65 +0.96 $273.70 +0.15 103,810
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$294.20 +1.30 $287.65 -0.33
52.61 LDS CH CUTS / 16.01 LDS SEL CUTS / 8.22 LDS TRIM / 20.05 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $ 6.55 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 97
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 04/26 $299.19 -1.69
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $269.66 +0.14
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 14.19 lds / Shrply lr on lt dem & lt-mod offers
90% TRIM: 00 lds: Wtd Avg: $No Test/ Unevenly steady
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 119(599) WK AGO 113(601) YR AGO 117(611)
SAT 20(619) WK AGO 12(613) YR AGO 10(621)
Previous Day Breakdown: THU SH96 / CB24
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 04/20/24 5,857 13,273
Week Ending: 04/13/24 4,038 14,274
Change from prev week: +1,819 -1,001
DTN Chart Technical Points 05/03 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 05/03 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 5/03/24 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAY 606.00 589.75 592.69 572.01 558.21 69.58 65.37 57.17 40 29 69 76 CBTWT JUL 622.50 607.31 610.69 588.81 572.98 69.03 65.45 57.91 38 29 69 76 KC WT MAY 660.00 636.31 633.36 609.35 591.28 73.44 69.01 60.48 49 42 74 80 KC WT JUL 650.25 636.75 637.39 610.18 587.32 68.17 65.87 59.37 35 37 75 83 MN WT MAY 708.25 707.31 697.58 669.99 659.28 73.43 69.22 59.32 68 76 90 93 MN WT JUL 714.50 707.56 699.72 674.35 664.49 79.70 72.98 60.53 77 84 93 94 CORN MAY 447.00 445.44 442.53 437.44 436.01 61.31 58.45 52.56 74 72 79 76 CORN JUL 460.25 454.38 452.19 447.82 447.60 67.17 61.51 53.81 77 63 78 71 CORN SEP 469.25 462.75 461.06 456.72 456.67 67.39 61.75 54.35 79 62 79 73 OATS MAY 396.00 383.50 375.58 363.68 359.35 83.51 75.21 61.56 55 44 67 72 OATS JUL 387.25 380.19 367.58 354.99 352.70 84.29 75.75 61.05 91 82 89 86 BEANS MAY1201.751173.251167.721161.441174.84 68.61 61.82 53.09 82 55 59 45 BEANS JUL1215.001186.811183.311176.361188.43 67.94 61.58 53.23 82 57 64 51 BEANS AUG1215.501188.061185.441177.581187.13 68.22 62.15 54.00 81 56 67 55 S MEAL MAY 366.50 353.13 348.43 343.63 338.93 74.98 69.67 59.53 80 66 83 76 S MEAL JUL 372.20 359.50 353.32 346.55 342.18 77.20 71.75 61.03 78 66 83 79 B OIL MAY 42.42 42.46 43.70 44.54 46.43 25.16 29.92 37.78 15 13 5 11 B OIL JUL 43.08 43.15 44.34 45.14 46.97 25.16 30.06 38.03 15 14 6 12 CATTLE JUN 176.68 175.58 176.47 175.58 178.82 51.67 49.75 48.64 45 36 60 62 CATTLE AUG 174.58 173.18 174.46 173.40 176.97 51.63 49.65 48.11 41 33 58 65 FEEDER MAY 243.30 243.23 245.11 242.44 248.21 47.76 47.21 47.16 28 29 67 73 FEEDER AUG 254.75 254.31 256.82 254.11 259.24 48.04 47.61 47.22 31 29 65 75 HOGS MAY 92.43 93.17 94.69 95.08 93.71 34.49 41.59 49.74 9 11 7 27 HOGS JUN 98.95 100.44 103.01 103.42 102.91 28.35 36.00 45.70 4 8 7 26 COTTON MAY 77.36 76.50 78.30 79.81 87.41 36.50 34.28 37.67 16 12 8 10 COTTON JUL 78.06 77.16 79.43 81.41 88.06 34.46 33.17 37.33 18 12 8 8 RICE MAY 18.74 18.69 18.91 18.55 17.79 54.91 56.46 55.34 31 32 82 86 RICE JUL 18.85 18.93 19.12 18.67 17.97 53.34 55.41 55.03 32 45 83 87
