DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/19 11:42
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/19 11:42 Livestock Contracts Jump Higher Wednesday's market has served as an opportunity for the livestock contracts to trade higher and the markets haven't wasted any time in doing so. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It's a strong day for the livestock contracts as the markets are rallying in an aggressive manner. The only market trading mixed is the feeder cattle contracts; with corn prices shooting higher it makes sense that the market is teetering in its position. March corn is up 13 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96.17 points and NASDAQ is up 78.18 points. LIVE CATTLE: Wednesday's cattle slaughter is anticipated to hit 117,000 head, which would be the second time this week the market has achieved that level. The live cattle complex is relieved to see progress being made on the packing front as feedlots desperately want to maintain the currentness the market sought in the latter part of 2021. February live cattle are up $1.32 at $139.00, April live cattle are up $1.70 at $143.55 and June live cattle are up $1.55 at $138.62. Thankfully this hiccup in the market has come at a time when boxed beef prices are very lucrative for packers, so while they don't like paying generously in the cash cattle market, they will likely support the market as they want to keep enough cattle in the pipe to chase the dividends that boxes are giving right now. The disappointing piece about this week's trade is that the cash trade puked cattle early in the week, so packers have gotten cattle bought at weaker prices. If feedlots would have waited until later in the week to trade, the market may have been able to hold prices steady with a week ago. Another round of light trade is being reported in the South at $137, which is $1.00 to $1.50 lower than last week. More trade has also been noted in the North for $218, which is steady with last week's trade, but a large percentage of the cattle trading dressed are also trading with time. The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 3,580 head, of which none actually sold, 159 were scratched from the auction and 3,421 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices, that ranged from $125 to $139.50 Opening prices ranged from $122 to $136, high bids ranged from $134 to $138. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 1,008 total head, all of which went unsold; Kansas 1,301 total head, 1,142 head went unsold and 159 head were scratched from the auction; Nebraska 1,233 total head, all of which went unsold; California 38 total head, all of which went unsold. Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.56 ($291.05) and select up $1.32 ($279.71) with a movement of 78 loads (42.87 loads of choice, 11.50 loads of select, 10.66 loads of trim and 13.43 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle contracts are walking a tightrope Wednesday as the complex would love to trade higher along with the rest of the livestock sector, but with corn prices well above $6.00 a bushel (and trading closer to the $6.10 to $6.14 mark in the nearby contracts) feeders are again weighing the pros and cons of the market. January feeders are down $0.45 at $161.00, March feeders are up $0.02 at $165.45 and April feeders are up $0.05 at $169.62. It wouldn't be surprising to see order buyers take a removed position in sales this week as they look to see what further develops in the market before jumping into more cattle. LEAN HOGS: After rallying Wednesday, the lean hog contracts are really taking to moving bullishly as the market has seen strong interest in the cash market, midday pork cutout values are higher and it looks as though the day may be able to process more hogs as well. February lean hogs are up $0.85 at $82.45, April lean hogs are up $1.87 at $91.15 and June lean hogs are up $1.45 at $101.80. With the hog market eager to rally, any additional export support the market could get would only support the market further in its aspirations. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 1/18/2022 is up $0.07 at $76.85 and the actual index for 1/17/2022 is up $0.88 at $76.78. On the National Direct Morning Hog Report 7,403 head of hogs have traded for a weighted average of $70.07, ranging from $60.00 to $74.00 and the five-day rolling average has now moved to $66.95. Pork cutouts total 230.98 loads with 207.16 loads of pork cuts and 23.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.29, $93.50. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Early Word Grains 01/19 05:56
DTN Early Word Grains 01/19 05:56 Grains Push Higher Early Wednesday March corn was up 8 1/4 cents, March soybeans were up 15 3/4 cents and March KC wheat was up 17 cents. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: March corn was up 8 1/4 cents, March soybeans were up 15 3/4 cents and March KC wheat was up 17 cents. CME Globex Recap: Early Wednesday, Dow Jones futures are trading a little higher, trying to stabilize after Tuesday's 1.5% loss. This is earnings report season and Goldman Sachs was one of Tuesday's disappointments with several more reports due out Wednesday. Rising interest rates are also a concern after the yield on 10-year T-Notes hit a new two-year high Tuesday. According to the Wall Street Journal, the yield on Germany's 10-year bond turned positive for the first time in over two and a half years. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 543.34 at 35,368.47 and the S&P 500 down 85.74 at 4,577.11 as the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at a new two-year high of 1.86%. Early Wednesday, March Dow Jones futures are trading up 25 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 index down 2.80% and China's Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33%. European markets are mixed with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading down 0.07%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading down 0.02% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading up 0.57%. The March euro is up $0.0015 at $1.1354. The March U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.12 at 95.60. The March 30-year T-bond is down 9/32nds, while February gold is up $4.60 at $1,817.0 and March crude oil is up $1.10 at $86.53. On China's Dalian exchange, May corn was up 0.4%, March soybeans were up 0.2%, May soybean meal was down 0.3% and May soybean oil was up 0.8%. March Malaysian palm oil is trading up 1.3%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/19 06:08
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/19 06:08 Packers Need Hogs, Not Afraid to Bid Up for Them Cattle were under pressure with feeder cattle leading the way. Futures just could not find buying interest when cattle began trading early in the week at steady to lower prices. Hogs were impressive even though cutouts were lower. Strong cash provided support. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Lower. Futures: Mixed. Live Equiv: $215.95 +$3.39* Hogs: Steady. Futures: Higher. Lean Equiv: $94.16 -$1.86** *Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: As anticipated, feedlots wanted to sell some cattle earlier rather than later. They had no desire to hold out for later due to the potential that buyers may finish earlier in the week and they will need to hold cattle another week. Cattle in the North were traded at steady money while the South traded cattle $1.00 to $1.50 lower. This sets that stage for the week as some of the cattle purchased were for deferred delivery, leaving packers with the upper hand. Boxed beef closed higher with choice up $1.63 and select up $1.34. Consumer demand is strong and with shortages showing up in grocery stores, consumers are purchasing more in order to stock up a little when it is available. This is giving the impression of stronger demand. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as sellers of 10,405 futures bringing their net long to 61,941 contracts.
National Lean Hog Values 09/01
DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/19 10:58
DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/19 10:58 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 21 to 23 cents higher; wheat futures are 20 to 25 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow off 40 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mostly higher with crude up 1.75. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 28.00. CORN: Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade trying to consolidate back over $6.00 nearby with spillover support from wheat and soybeans and firmer spread trade. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by tepid short-term demand with production expected to slide further as demand looks to remain soft in the short term with the weekly report delayed until Friday. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term with weather likely to slow short-term movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head towards second-crop planting and development. The daily export wire has been quiet this week. On the March contract, we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.01; the upper Bollinger band at $6.13 is further resistance. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 21 to 23 cents higher at midday with trade snapping back to the middle of the recent range after rebounding from early selling Tuesday as trade continues to weigh rains and forecasts for the dry areas of South America along with broad spillover commodity support. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 higher and oil is 130 to 140 points higher. Basis remains mostly flat in the short term. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil going forward. The daily export wire was quiet Wednesday. Early harvest in under way in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high of $14.15, with trade back above the 20-day moving average at $13.68 overnight with the lower Bollinger Band well below the current action at $13.20. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 20 to 25 cents higher at midday with oversold conditions and political worries helping push trade back off the lower end of the range with action heading back towards the $8.00 area nearby. The dollar is giving back a bit of the rebound from Tuesday. Plains weather looks drier with a little snow cover out of the last system, while temps continue to fluctuate, keeping stress intact with other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns fading for the moment while political fears ramp up again. Spring wheat is firmer vs. Chicago, moving the premium to $1.42 on the March, with KC at a 5-cent premium in lightly firmer action as well. KC March chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $7.36 with the 20-day moving average at $8.00, just above the market. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 01/19 13:50
DTN Closing Grain Comments 01/19 13:50 Grains Stampede Higher Led by Canola, Wheat, Bean Oil March contracts of all grain futures closed higher Wednesday, led by increases in canola, wheat and soybean oil. Corn and soybeans also closed sharply higher, in spite of rain in the forecast for Argentina. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: March corn closed up 11 cents and July corn was up 10 3/4 cents. March soybeans closed up 30 cents and July soybeans were up 29 1/2 cents. March KC wheat closed up 27 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 27 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 30 cents. The March U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.18 at 95.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 151.20 points at 35,217.27. February gold is up $30.20 at $1,842.60, March silver is up $0.71 at $24.21 and March copper is up $0.0750. March crude oil is up $1.00 at $85.83, March heating oil is up $0.0211, March RBOB gasoline is up $0.0281 and March natural gas is down $0.254.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 01/19 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 01/19/22
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 3,281 WEEK TO DATE: 9,710
STEERS LIVE FOB
2,203 136.00-137.00 136.00-137.00 136.73
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
603 137.00-137.00 137.00-137.00 137.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 3,467 WEEK TO DATE: 14,781
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
1,241 218.00-218.00 218.00-218.00 218.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
686 218.00-218.00 218.00-218.00 218.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,615 WEEK TO DATE: 2,811
STEERS LIVE FOB
1,143 137.00-137.00 137.00-137.00 137.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not reported due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Not reported due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 556 WEEK TO DATE: 4,461
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
383 217.00-218.00 217.00-218.00 217.61
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Another round of light business took place today, at
steady money with Tuesday's trade. So far this week, Northern dressed deals
have been marked at mostly $218, fully steady with last week's weighted
averages, a good many of these cattle are set for delivery the week of
January 31st and February 7th. Southern live transactions have been at mostly
$137, $1 to $1.50 higher than last week's weighted averages.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $136.70(1502) HIDE&OFFAL: $14.03 -0.01
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $199.88 $189.25 58,650
BOX BASED $279.60 $268.43 41,935
AVE INDEX $239.74 +0.95 $228.84 +0.92 100,585
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$291.60 +2.11 $280.43 +2.04
64.28 LDS CH CUTS / 17.30 LDS SEL CUTS / 10.96 LDS TRIM / 22.88 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $11.17 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 115
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 01/14 $280.40 +10.22
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $229.81 -0.88
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 41.31 lds / Shrply lr on lt dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 13 lds: Wtd Avg $277.48 / Moderately lower
FI KILL(WTD) WED 115(345) WK AGO 114(341) YR AGO 121(351) MIX: TUE SH89/CB28
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 01/08/22 1,766 11,163
Week Ending: 01/01/22 1,543 5,043
Change from prev week: +223 +6,120
Year ending 2021 143,690 451,084
Year ending 2020 118,181 491,738
Change from prev year +25,509 -40,654
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/19 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/19 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 1/19/22 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAR 796.50 763.44 760.92 770.97 793.46 62.19 56.53 52.95 74 52 30 26 CBTWT MAY 799.00 765.69 763.33 774.13 797.74 62.13 56.39 52.83 73 50 29 25 KC WT MAR 800.00 769.38 774.33 795.58 816.56 54.48 51.08 50.74 55 34 18 17 KC WT MAY 803.50 772.31 776.03 796.68 817.13 55.47 51.77 51.11 57 36 19 17 MN WT MAR 939.75 905.13 914.50 953.11 997.58 48.82 44.60 45.22 55 32 16 10 MN WT MAY 935.50 902.88 912.14 948.83 989.12 48.75 44.74 45.67 55 31 15 10 CORN MAR 610.50 598.44 600.44 601.39 591.82 60.99 58.85 57.29 70 48 42 44 CORN MAY 611.00 599.44 601.61 602.60 593.93 60.75 58.55 56.97 69 48 40 43 CORN JUL 607.25 596.25 598.75 600.32 592.93 60.16 57.91 56.52 66 46 35 38 OATS MAR 655.50 633.56 648.78 671.94 703.09 46.34 44.37 47.58 53 29 20 13 OATS MAY 624.50 605.56 621.11 640.63 680.54 44.71 42.47 45.87 47 24 16 6 BEANS MAR1391.251374.881385.281374.131312.92 59.98 61.00 59.46 39 31 75 81 BEANS MAY1400.751384.631394.531383.001321.14 60.37 61.39 59.85 40 32 76 82 BEANS JUL1406.501391.061400.251388.111326.92 60.64 61.72 60.19 41 34 77 83 S MEAL MAR 398.30 400.73 409.39 408.49 380.14 45.77 51.44 56.61 13 14 53 68 S MEAL MAY 395.90 398.60 406.87 405.63 379.24 45.34 51.19 56.45 14 17 56 72 B OIL MAR 60.76 59.19 58.97 57.96 56.97 70.81 65.07 56.62 75 62 90 89 B OIL MAY 60.75 59.23 59.03 58.01 56.82 71.24 65.77 57.42 73 61 91 90 CATTLE FEB 138.55 137.80 137.38 138.28 138.19 55.99 53.50 52.59 69 59 33 28 CATTLE APR 143.35 142.08 141.68 142.81 142.14 59.16 56.22 54.84 82 63 30 23 FEEDER JAN 161.40 162.12 162.00 163.20 163.20 41.43 44.74 48.47 46 64 39 39 FEEDER MAR 165.63 166.04 166.09 166.45 165.47 47.65 49.68 51.55 41 46 53 55 HOGS FEB 82.30 80.66 80.04 81.19 81.05 58.12 54.91 52.07 94 63 41 26 HOGS APR 91.35 88.60 87.26 87.37 86.28 70.10 65.07 58.82 98 73 70 49 COTTON MAR 123.95 120.39 117.81 115.42 111.89 80.66 73.97 65.51 93 83 94 89 COTTON MAY 120.45 117.24 115.12 112.86 109.92 82.08 74.65 65.33 93 85 95 92 RICE MAR 14.66 14.50 14.51 14.57 14.39 59.22 57.62 56.05 74 53 60 58 RICE MAY 14.85 14.69 14.68 14.74 14.55 60.99 58.97 57.01 73 44 63 60
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/19 16:24
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/19 16:24 Technical Support, Higher Meat Prices Boost Livestock Futures Livestock futures all closed higher Wednesday amid excellent technical interest and fundamental interest, as both pork and beef prices jumped. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a strong day throughout the livestock contracts as the entire marketplace closed higher. It was especially surprising to see the feeder cattle contracts close higher amid the corn market's jump in prices well above $6.00 a bushel. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.09 with a weighted average of $70.28 on 9,911 head. March corn is up 11 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 339.82 points and NASDAQ is down 166.64 points.
