DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/03 11:37
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/03 11:37 Livestock Futures Higher at Midday With support beaming from both the market's technical and fundamental points of view, higher prices are being achieved again on Tuesday. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The market has kept up with the pace set Monday as the live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog contracts all trade higher. What helped the market confidently trade higher into Tuesday's debut was the fact that both pork cutouts and boxed beef prices closed higher Monday afternoon. If that can be accomplished again Tuesday afternoon, the market may stand a chance at continuing this rally into Wednesday. December corn is down 10 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $10.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 143.30 points and NASDAQ is up 26.49 points. LIVE CATTLE: Traders haven't tip-toed into the nearby live cattle futures Tuesday morning as both the August and October contracts see gains well over $1.00. As the market comes up against resistance, the rubber is going to have to meet the road to move the complex above longer-term resistance. Thankfully with boxed beef prices showing no immediate signs of retracting, the market sits in a fine position to rally, as the cash cattle market is the only side of the market that's been lacking. August live cattle are up $1.32 at $123.45, October live cattle are up $1.35 at $128.62 and December live cattle are up $0.92 at $133.67. The countryside sits quietly heading into Tuesday afternoon without any bids being noted. Asking prices in the South are marked at $122-plus and in the North at $199-plus. The market isn't expecting to see much develop until Wednesday or later. Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $4.06 ($285.06) and select up $2.63 ($266.01) with a movement of 56 loads (27.06 loads of choice, 11.95 loads of select, 10.61 loads of trim and 6.52 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: With corn prices trending lower, boxed beef prices scaling higher and live cattle futures rallying, why shouldn't the feeder cattle market be rallying? The feeder cattle contracts are rallying amid phenomenal technical and fundamental support. It's a great week for the market to be seeing such confidence from all sides as Superior hosts their big Video Royale sale where over 184,000 head of cattle will be offered. It's important that the market trades strong for those who are consigned to the sale, but also for those who are looking to better understand where the market sits and are looking to price their calves in the next week to 10 days. And with corn continuing to chop sideways and the April 2022 live cattle contract hitting Tuesday's noon hour at $140.00, buyers are thankfully feeling quite confident. August feeders are up $1.22 at $159.47, September feeders are up $1.15 at $163.12 and October feeders are up $1.10 at $165.57. LEAN HOGS: With slaughter anticipated to be back to normal running capacity, packers buying close to 6,000 head in the morning's cash hog market and pork cutouts showing positive signs for a higher close -- the hog market is rallying! August lean hogs are up $0.77 at $108.27, October lean hogs are up $1.12 at $90.62 and December lean hogs are up $0.57 at $83.45. The support that's buzzing throughout the cattle futures has picked up momentum in the lean hog market as well and is allowing for the complex to rally confidently. If the market can round out the day with a higher pork cutout, this rally is very likely to continue. The projected CME lean hog index for 8/2/2021 is down $0.45 at $111.59, and the actual index for 7/30/2021 is down $0.04 at $112.04. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.54 with a weighted average of $100.45, ranging from $98.00 to $104.00 on 5,680 head and a five-day rolling average of $101.97. Pork cutouts total 176.57 loads with 158.26 loads of pork cuts and 18.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.05, $131.76. ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/03 14:06
DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/03 14:06 Soybeans, Meal Lead Grains Mostly Lower November soybeans closed down 33 3/4 cents and December soybean meal was down $9.90, a bout of selling on Tuesday pressured by chances for timely and favorable rains in the seven-day forecast. September KC wheat ended up 4 cents, the only gain in Tuesday's grain sector. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: September corn closed down 8 1/4 cents and December corn was down 7 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed down 26 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 33 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 5 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 3 cents. The September U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.03 at 92.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 240.23 points at 35,078.39. August gold is down $8.70 at $1,813.50, September silver is up $0.03 at $25.61 and September copper is down $0.0495. September crude oil is down $0.78 at $70.48, September heating oil is down $0.0114, September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0070 and September natural gas is up $0.107.
DTN Chart Technical Points 08/03 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 08/03 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 8/03/21 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT SEP 724.50 715.75 697.72 683.15 672.45 68.57 63.86 57.55 87 85 88 76 CBTWT DEC 734.75 725.19 707.17 691.88 680.22 69.86 64.93 58.30 88 86 88 76 KC WT SEP 707.50 689.69 666.50 651.13 634.93 76.96 69.72 60.22 93 91 94 82 KC WT DEC 718.75 700.75 677.67 662.10 645.35 77.49 70.25 60.67 93 91 94 82 MN WT SEP 919.75 916.44 901.56 892.71 832.49 64.18 63.94 62.68 76 76 81 72 MN WT DEC 907.00 903.13 889.14 880.46 825.55 64.33 64.11 62.79 78 78 80 72 CORN SEP 550.50 553.56 552.64 554.88 571.61 45.97 46.47 48.31 52 52 38 31 CORN DEC 551.75 553.19 551.00 550.18 560.44 49.74 49.56 50.41 58 60 52 44 CORN MAR 560.25 561.25 558.86 557.90 567.56 50.30 49.95 50.65 60 62 53 45 OATS SEP 445.00 450.63 456.94 443.11 404.26 54.33 60.43 61.95 12 31 84 91 OATS DEC 445.00 451.56 455.58 440.33 402.96 55.43 60.86 62.49 17 38 86 92 BEANS AUG1392.251415.001415.581422.471420.23 40.62 44.72 47.57 33 52 58 62 BEANS SEP1323.751355.191360.581370.891374.57 34.90 40.75 46.14 24 44 40 50 BEANS NOV1319.751350.061354.721362.761363.43 35.99 41.70 47.23 25 42 43 52 S MEAL AUG 347.80 353.53 355.49 358.71 367.81 37.17 39.89 41.86 35 43 19 23 S MEAL SEP 347.50 352.93 354.90 358.52 368.54 37.56 39.98 42.13 35 43 19 22 B OIL AUG 63.27 65.16 65.62 65.75 63.96 38.06 45.22 51.33 14 37 61 69 B OIL SEP 62.45 64.20 64.36 64.48 63.01 41.47 46.66 51.78 21 45 62 67 CATTLE AUG 123.25 122.49 122.41 121.40 121.10 62.63 58.70 54.86 31 39 71 69 CATTLE OCT 128.15 127.69 127.86 126.85 126.69 57.70 55.99 54.59 18 29 65 68 FEEDER AUG 158.90 158.46 159.46 158.39 156.19 52.36 53.11 53.19 18 17 55 68 FEEDER SEP 162.52 162.06 162.64 161.18 158.73 56.74 56.48 55.36 29 30 66 76 HOGS AUG 109.08 107.27 107.07 105.91 107.61 67.76 60.57 54.99 69 48 85 87 HOGS OCT 91.38 89.47 90.82 90.09 89.97 57.39 55.52 53.73 37 21 57 69 COTTON OCT 90.30 90.24 90.39 89.72 88.06 56.35 56.65 55.98 41 52 78 86 COTTON DEC 89.87 89.80 89.90 89.23 87.46 56.88 57.21 56.69 43 56 80 85 RICE SEP 13.40 13.56 13.57 13.34 13.27 48.98 51.16 51.26 27 45 76 78 RICE NOV 13.67 13.83 13.80 13.57 13.49 50.92 52.64 52.51 33 52 79 79
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 08/03 16:00
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 08/03 16:00 Livestock Contracts Keep Technical Support Through Closing Tuesday The livestock contracts were able to close higher again Tuesday afternoon, but the market's biggest gains were undoubtedly seen in the boxed beef market. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a good day for the livestock complex as the futures contracts continued with Monday's rally. The boxed beef market continues to see robust gains as demand is truly exceptional, but Tuesday's pork cutout value closed lower, with ham prices seeing the steepest regression. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.60 with a weighted average of $100.40 on 5,841 head. December corn is down 7 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $9.90.
DTN Early Word Grains 08/04 05:56
DTN Early Word Grains 08/04 05:56 Mixed Trade on Forecasts, Slow Exports December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 2 3/4 cents, and September KC wheat is up 1/2 cent. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 2 3/4 cents, and September KC wheat is up 1/2 cent. CME Globex Recap: Mixed equity trade overnight with quiet U.S. futures at midweek. Investors are awaiting the ADP private payroll report later Wednesday morning which is expected to show 650,000 jobs added which would be just below the 692,000 added Friday. The report usually helps set the tone for Friday's larger employment situation report which is expected to show 875,000 jobs added which would be stronger than either of the previous three months. Energy markets are weaker overnight as crude oil slides back toward the $70.00 mark after slipping below that level Tuesday before recovering. The U.S. Dollar Index remains in recent ranges while metals are mixed. Grain markets are mixed with soybeans and winter wheat firmer while corn and Minneapolis spring wheat are weaker. Wetter forecasts for next week remain threatening to bulls while bears aren't confident about Western Corn Belt and Northern Plains yield ideas. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 278.24 at 35,116.40 and the S&P 500 up 35.99 at 4,387.16 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.176%. Early Wednesday, the September DJIA futures are down 29 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 57.75 (-0.21%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 29.23 points (0.85%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 23.31 points (0.33%), Germany's DAX up 124.79 points (0.8%) and France's CAC 40 up 35.15 points (0.52%). The September Euro is down 0.000 at 1.190 and the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.002 at 92.090. The September 30-Year T-Bond is down 1/32nds, while December gold is up $2.50 at $1,816.60 and September crude oil is down $0.40 at $70.16. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were down 0.49% while soybean meal was down 0.88% and corn was down 0.08%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 08/04 06:24
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 08/04 06:24 Traders May Be Less Aggressive The livestock complex extended gains Tuesday, but those gains stemmed from the optimism of traders and not from underlying cash. Futures were low enough to entice traders to step in on the anticipation of the trend turning back up. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $212.12 +3.26* Hogs: Steady Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $134.48 -1.04** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle showed further strength Tuesday driven by the hopes that cash cattle will trade higher this week. Feedlots are offering upwards to $2.00 higher in the anticipation that soaring boxed beef prices will bring packers to the table more aggressively. Cattle trade may not develop until later in the week as packers may want to wait it out. Strong futures gains Tuesday may influence packers to some degree as they determine what type of leverage they may have going forward. Marketings are current and the continued increase of boxed beef prices may result in higher bids and higher trade. Boxed beef jumped $4.84 for choice cuts and $4.11 for select cuts. Demand looks favorable heading into Labor Day.
National Lean Hog Values 08/04
DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/04 10:42
DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/04 10:42 Corn Slightly Lower, Soybeans Slightly Higher Midday Wednesday Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat is 1 to 14 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 275 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.20 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are mostly lower with crude off $1.60. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $5.70. CORN: Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with trade continuing to migrate to the $5.50 area as range-bound action continues with flat spread action and little fresh news. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure with energies sliding, along with the coming shift to cheaper fall blends, while corn remains rangebound with the weekly report showing production down 1,000 barrels a day and stocks down 84,000 barrels. Brazil will continue to move along with the end of the second crop season and estimates still trending lower. Corn basis continues to fade with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as early harvest gets going to the south. On the September contract, resistance remains at $5.53 20-day moving average, which we are below at midday, with further support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.33. SOYBEANS: Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade finding light buying after washing out on Tuesday with improvement expected in the extended forecast and meal leading products Wednesday. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is 0.70 cent to 0.80 cent lower. The weather pattern looks dry short term with better rains the second week. South America has a declining ship line up while the run in canola values turned more sideways, keeping a lid on oil values as well, along with crude oil weakness. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. On the September soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at $13.66, which we fell below last week, with the lower Bollinger Band at $13.17 as support with $13.00 below that. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 1 to 14 cents lower with Chicago action leading as winter wheats fade from the fresh highs scored again Wednesday morning. The dollar has settled into a range around 92 points on the index. The U.S. has pushed above world values, which should limit exports and upside short term unless continental values can catch up further. KC holds at 22-cent discount to Chicago, widening a bit with Minneapolis at a 182-cent premium, fading back to the lower end of the range. KC September on the chart has support at the 20-day at $6.51 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.17. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Cattle Prices/Trends 08/04 10:55
DTN CATTLE PRICES/TRENDS 08/04 10:55
HEAD SOLD LIVE STEERS DRESSED LIVE HEIFERS DRESSED
KANSAS . . . . .
NEBRASKA 1,800 125.00 198.00 125.00 198.00
TEXAS . . . . .
COLORADO . . . . .
IOWA . . . . .
*PRIVATE SOURCES
DTN COMMENTS: A light trade is beginning in parts of the North, at $198, $1
higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Note that most of
these deals are set for delivery the week of August 16th. So far, the South
remains rather quiet. Asking prices are around $122 plus in the South, and
$199 plus in the North. Beef cutouts are expected to be higher with light to
moderate box movement.
The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction today listed a total of 6,078 head, of which
1,393 actually sold, and 4,685 head were listed as unsold, as they did not
meet the reserve prices, that ranged from $118 to $123. Opening prices ranged
from $118 to $119, high bids ranged from $118 to $122. The state-by-state
breakdown looks like this: TX 5,897 total head, with 1,393 head sold at $118
to $122, and 4,504 head went unsold; KS 181 total head, all of which went
unsold.
NOTE: Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at
1-800-369-7675, ext. 3678. All sales will be listed anonymously and
organized by state. All live sales are FOB and set for 1-9 day delivery.
General trends and summaries from this data will also be posted on the Daily
Sales Reported to DTN page.
