US Direct Feeder Pigs 07/26
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 12/14 05:37
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 12/14 05:37 Cattle Paper Open Mixed Tied to Uncertain Friday Cash Magic Live and feeder contracts are likely to open cautiously mixed as traders consider the likelihood of late-week cash strength. Lean hog issues should also begin with uneven price action as spot December prepares to expire. By John Harrington DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures mixed. Live Equiv: $139.79 - 0.23* Hogs: Steady Futures: mixed Lean Equiv $77.98 +0.73** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cattle traders have arrived back on a Friday with cash business undecided. Look for that question to be answered by late this afternoon. If recent history provides a reliable clue, the fed market will print. closer to asking prices ($121-122/$190) than bids ($115/$185-187). But time wiill tell. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed basis thanks to a combo of short covering and slow long liquidation as traders position ahead of actual cash news.
DTN Early Word Grains 12/14 05:53
DTN Early Word Grains 12/14 05:53 Grains Weaker on Export Sales March corn was down 3/4 cents, January soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents, and March KC wheat was down 3 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn was down 3/4 cents, January soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents, and March KC wheat was down 3 cents. CME Globex Recap: The global equity rout is back on with weakness from Asia to Europe to the U.S. Friday morning. Growth concerns are spreading from China to France as riots in Paris threaten productivity. Also worth noting, the U.S. Dollar Index has traded back up near 18-month highs. Grains are limping into the weekend with weakness in the soy complex leading the way down. Dalian futures were also sharply weaker overnight. A lot of buying occurred on rumored Chinese purchases so markets will be skeptical until the desired amount is announced. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 70.11 points at 24,597.38, the S&P 500 down 0.53 points at 2,650.54 while the 10-yr Treasury yield ended at 2.899%. Early Friday, DJIA futures are down 234.00. Asian markets were lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 441.36 points (-2.02%) and China's Shanghai Composite was down 40.31 points (-1.53%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 64.47 points (-0.94%), Germany's DAX down 130.41 points (-1.39%), and France's CAC 40 down 50.87 points (-1.04%). The euro was up 0.00715 at 1.12950 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.3940 at 97.4870. December 30-year T-Bonds were up 8/32nds while February gold was down $3.80 at $1243.50 and February crude oil was down $0.17 at $52.63. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange closed down 0.85% and soymeal closed down 1.37%.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/14 11:34
DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/14 11:34 Soybeans, Wheat Lower at Midday Corn leads at midday, with soybeans and wheat drifting lower. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are softer with the Dow futures down 360. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 40 higher. Energies are weaker with crude down $1.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are lower with gold down $4.10. CORN Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with action remaining just below the recent highs scored midweek. Corn basis looks to be flat in the near term with better weather improving movement potential. Ethanol margins remain under pressure with energies remaining at the lower end of the range and ethanol futures remaining flat. USDA announced 125,000 metric tons of corn sold to Japan, and there is talk China could be in the import market after the first of the year. Milder weather should allow harvest to wrap up overall. On the March chart the 20,50, and 100-day moving averages at $3.78-$3.80 is our chart support area with resistance at the new high scored at $3.87 3/4. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents lower with trade coming back from the 6-8 cent lower trade earlier in the overnight session with overall rangebound action still continuing. Meal is flat to $1 higher and bean oil is 10 to 20 points lower. South America continues to make good progress with early harvest approaching fast with a few dry pockets in Brazil drawing more worry. Basis will provide signals on the quantity of nearby cash business getting done with flat to slightly firmer trade so far this week. China purchases look to be in the 1.5 to 2.0 million metric tons the last couple days with 300,000 more confirmed today, along with 130,000 to unknown. Big picture, US origin is the economic choice for China in the three-month horizon, but once the bulk of the 2019 Argentine and Brazilian crop is harvested that likely will not be the case. January support is the 20-day at $8.96, with the 10-day at $9.11 just above the market with the recent high at $9.29 above that. WHEAT Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower with trade holding the recent gains with improving exports helping to support the market, and spread unwinding favoring the Kansas City contract. The dollar has firmed sharply this morning with trade remaining near the upper end of the range. Australian harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat is seeing milder weather, helping late emergence. Russian/Ukrainian tensions have ramped up again. On the March Kansas City chart support is at the 50-day at $5.18 that we closed above yesterday with the upper Bollinger Band at $5.21 just above the market and the 100-day the next round up at $5.44. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/14 11:59
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/14 11:59 Cattle Futures Back Away From Early Gains Moderate to strong support in nearby lean hog prices have pulled the focus away from the lightly traded cattle market that has eroded at midday Friday. Light trade is expected to be seen through the rest of the session. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst General Comments After posting light gains for most of the morning, buyer support is limited in cattle trade, allowing prices to shift lower in live cattle and feeder cattle markets. Hog futures are mixed to mostly higher with firm support still seen nearby contracts. Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 2 cents higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 417 points lower with Nasdaq down 98 points. LIVE CATTLE: Firm losses have developed midmorning Friday with prices steady to 52 cents per cwt lower in limited trade. The focus on moderate pressure quickly developing in the feeder cattle trade as the morning continues has sparked additional underlying support through the entire market. Cash cattle are starting to improve with bids in all areas midday Friday. Live bids are seen from $115 to $119 per cwt live with $118 to $119 seen in the South. Dressed bids are developing at $185 to $187 with $187 seen through most of Nebraska. At this point there still remains a moderate gap between asking prices and bids, but deals may start to develop within the next few hours. Asking prices remain at $120 to $122 live and $192 and higher dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $3.24 higher (select) and up $0.25 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 45 total loads reported (30 loads of choice cuts, 7 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Despite trade firming through most of the morning, there continues to be some late-morning pressure developing in front month futures. A portion of the latest market softness is focusing on the firming corn market gains seen through the complex. Front-month futures are holding a 45 cent loss at midday, while other contracts are mixed in moderate range from 50 cents lower to 50 cents higher. LEAN HOGS: Mixed trade is seen in lean hog futures as moderate to strong buyer support continues to hold in nearby trade as soon to be spot month February futures are trading $1.05 per cwt higher. Other spring and summer contracts are mixed in a narrow range from 20 cents lower to 20 cents higher as limited overall direction continues to be seen through the entire market. The pullback from early support in the cattle complex is eroding deferred market support in the lean hog complex, as traders may continue to focus on overall limited market activity through the end of the session. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.27 lower at $46.33 per cwt with the range from $42.00 to $47.21 on 8,607 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.33 lower at $46.05 per cwt with the range from $42.00 to $47.00 on 5,272 head reported sold. Pork carcass values added $0.32 per cwt at $73.76 per cwt on 136 loads. Lean hog index for 12/11 is $55.54, down 0.44, with a projected two-day index is $55.36, down 0.18. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/14 14:32
DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/14 14:32 Soybeans Sink Further on Risk-Off Day January soybeans fell 6 1/2 cents Friday, still not impressed by a second day of export sales to China and also influenced by a commodity board that was nearly all red. March corn was one of the few commodities that survived with a slight gain, while all three wheats showed modest losses in the face of Friday's higher U.S. dollar.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 12/14 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 12/14/18
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 12,998 WEEK T0 DATE: 13,095
STEERS 5,888 118.00-119.00 119.00-119.00 118.74
HEIFERS 4,902 118.00-119.00 119.00-119.00 118.91
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 6,067 WEEK TO DATE: 6,455
STEERS 4,236 188.00-188.00 188.00-188.00 188.00
HEIFERS 1,433 187.00-188.00 187.00-188.00 187.89
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 3,251 WEEK TO DATE: 3,251
STEERS 1,371 118.00-119.00 119.00-119.00 118.89
HEIFERS 1,288 118.00-119.00 119.00-119.00 118.97
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,065 WEEK TO DATE: 7,715
STEERS 485 187.00-188.00 187.00-188.00 187.41
HEIFERS 267 187.00-188.00 187.00-188.00 187.30
COMMENTS: A light to moderate trade developed this afternoon with Southern
Live business at mostly 119, generally steady with last week's weighted
Averages. Northern dressed deals were at mostly 188, about $1.00 higher than
Last week's weighted average basis Nebraska.
5-AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $117.00(1400)Light Test HIDE&OFFAL: $8.82 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED 179.38 164.96 105,018
BOX BASED 198.96 191.14 45,248
AVE INDEX 189.17 -0.71 178.05 +1.11 150,266
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
210.96 -1.51 203.14 +2.14
39.54 LDS CH CUTS / 12.31 LDS SEL CUTS / 19.66 LDS TRIM / 13.54 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Lr on Ch & shrply hr on Sel on lt-mod dem & lt offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 12/07 $209.57 +0.14
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $155.63 -0.61
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 45.84 lds / Shrply lr on lt dem & hvy offers
90% TRIM: 08 lds: Wtd Avg $195.15 / Weak to lower
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 121(604) WK AGO 121(602) YR AGO 118(590) MIX: THU SH98/CB24
SAT 50(654) WK AGO 65(667) YR AGO 38(628)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 12/01/18 5,557 9,158
Week Ending: 11/24/18 3,773 8,874
Change from prev week: +1,824 +284
DTN Chart Technical Points 12/14 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 12/14 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 12/14/18 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 527.75 520.13 517.08 510.22 509.08 64.26 60.14 53.52 88 72 78 69 CBTWT MAR 530.00 528.38 525.11 518.07 521.51 58.06 55.69 50.70 75 70 78 74 KC WT DEC 492.50 486.50 482.47 476.22 491.11 60.98 55.42 48.46 59 56 68 57 KC WT MAR 518.25 513.56 508.36 500.90 515.44 62.19 56.47 48.95 83 80 82 66 MN WT DEC 580.50 580.50 581.97 579.04 580.17 50.75 50.66 49.08 21 24 56 61 MN WT MAR 584.00 582.63 579.08 575.83 582.66 56.79 53.81 49.16 86 78 70 52 CORN DEC 376.75 375.88 374.69 368.07 368.80 69.81 63.58 55.30 69 74 91 87 CORN MAR 384.75 384.75 384.47 378.81 380.22 62.53 58.90 53.24 56 61 86 83 CORN MAY 392.25 392.25 391.75 386.18 387.78 63.31 59.32 53.39 59 65 87 84 OATS DEC 278.50 282.25 282.39 284.08 287.97 41.82 44.85 49.03 42 57 29 30 OATS MAR 287.50 291.88 290.39 291.44 287.39 44.71 48.26 52.17 57 68 31 31 BEANS JAN 900.50 910.63 911.53 898.04 885.66 49.00 52.42 52.43 30 53 77 82 BEANS MAR 913.75 923.94 924.31 911.13 898.69 49.17 52.58 52.66 32 56 77 82 BEANS MAY 927.00 936.75 937.11 924.14 911.94 49.42 52.74 52.81 32 56 78 83 S MEAL DEC 309.40 309.63 310.01 308.48 309.69 51.49 50.75 48.02 44 39 57 58 S MEAL JAN 307.30 309.83 311.26 310.23 311.50 39.39 43.40 45.45 19 26 42 50 B OIL DEC 28.39 28.64 28.58 28.09 28.23 53.28 53.28 50.23 57 77 91 91 B OIL JAN 28.49 28.83 28.81 28.32 28.45 49.41 50.89 49.23 40 59 82 87 CATTLE DEC 119.58 119.13 118.45 117.56 116.96 75.02 67.32 58.78 92 85 92 90 CATTLE FEB 122.40 122.58 122.09 121.28 121.07 60.81 58.55 55.39 82 81 88 87 FEEDER JAN 147.58 147.61 145.99 146.65 147.70 57.33 52.59 49.23 83 86 58 42 FEEDER MAR 145.77 145.47 143.71 144.12 145.59 61.77 55.15 49.58 87 89 73 50 HOGS DEC 54.95 54.73 55.02 56.63 56.58 39.18 42.57 47.21 57 36 8 8 HOGS FEB 64.50 65.06 66.18 66.31 64.53 42.10 46.37 49.61 17 21 47 65 COTTON MAR 79.60 79.75 79.91 79.19 79.30 51.32 51.41 49.03 45 48 55 58 COTTON MAY 80.67 80.81 80.96 80.29 80.43 51.22 51.34 49.19 42 46 54 56 RICE JAN 10.58 10.56 10.70 10.76 10.81 38.84 41.87 46.11 20 14 13 28 RICE MAR 10.69 10.71 10.87 10.93 10.97 34.00 39.03 45.20 16 12 12 29
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 12/14 16:26
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 12/14 16:26 Generally Speaking, Livestock Futures Close Friday Modestly Lower Live and feeder contracts concluded the week with slow volume and moderately lower settlements. Though traders seemed patiently awaiting cash news, neither side acted with much anticipatory expectation. Lean hog issues closed on a mixed basis as spot December expired, cautiously making room to consider the tall premium of the new leader February. By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Light-to-moderate trade volume developed Friday afternoon in cattle country. Live sales in the South are mostly marked at $119, roughly $1 higher than last week. Some dressed steers and heifers are tagged at $188, also a buck higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.29 higher compared with the Prior Day settlement ($42-$47.21, weighted average $46.71). March corn traded higher most the day, but ended just fractionally in the green. While nearby corn dug in fairly well since Monday, most of this week's market focus was on the return of China to the U.S. soybean market (and with soy fireworks kept to a minimum). From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Dec LC, up $1.67; Feb LC, up $0.88; Jan FC, up $3.20; Mar FC, up $3.90; Dec LH, up $0.70; Feb LH, off $3.37. The stock market crashed sharply lower with the Dow failing by 496 points (sinking to its lowest close since May - 24,100). The Nasdaq retreated by as much as 159 points.
