US Direct Feeder Pigs 04/15
DTN Early Word Grains 04/18 06:02
DTN Early Word Grains 04/18 06:02 Grains Mixed Ahead of Export Sales, Better Planting Weather May corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel, May soybeans are up 1 1/2 cents, and July K.C. wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: May corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel, May soybeans are up 1 1/2 cents, and July K.C. wheat is down 2 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Global equity markets are mostly lower Thursday morning with the most focus likely to be on the release of the Mueller Report due later today. Markets are braced for volatility but like most of the investigation, unlikely to be anything to truly roil markets. Grains are mixed to firmer this morning with contracts still in recent ranges. Social media continues to slowly fill up with planting pictures with widespread progress probably another week away. So far, planting delays are not providing bulls the edge they need, and funds continue to add to their record net short position. Winter wheat contracts continue to stare at contract lows with mainly beneficial weather and competitive export offers out of the Black Sea and Europe this summer. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Wednesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 3.12 at 26,449.54 and the S&P 500 down 6.61 at 2,907.06 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 2.592%. Early Thursday, the June DJIA futures are down 39 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 187.85 (-0.84%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 12.92 points (-0.4%). European markets are mixed with London's FTSE 100 down 12.46 points (-0.17%), Germany's DAX up 59.4 points (0.49%) and France's CAC 40 up 10.54 points (0.19%). The June Euro is down 0.005 at 1.130 and the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.312 at 96.970. The June 30-Year T-Bond is up 12/32nds, while June gold is up $0.10 at $1,276.90 and May crude oil is down $0.04 at $63.72. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were down -0.51% while soybean meal was down -0.55%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 04/18 06:21
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 04/18 06:21 End of the Week Adjustments Expected Thursday trade is expected to be limited ahead of the three-day weekend. Traders are looking for additional long-term direction in hog futures, focusing on results from Thursday's Export Sales report. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $152.64 +0.02* Hogs: Steady Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 91.86 -0.47** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cash cattle trade is expected to continue to develop Thursday with both sides apparently desiring to wrap up business before Good Friday. Light-to-moderate trade that developed in the South on Thursday, may have moved enough cattle for the week in Texas and Kansas. These sales developed at $126 per cwt, which is $2 per cwt higher than last week. Trade in the North has yet to develop, but the firming tone is causing stronger asking prices of $128 to $130 live and $208 and higher dressed. The expectation is that cash cattle prices will be higher in all areas by the end of the week. Futures trade is expected to be mixed with additional narrow trading shifts likely Thursday morning. The release of the March 1 Cattle on Feed report Thursday afternoon could add some additional pre-report positioning into the complex. Although the report is not expected to deliver any huge surprises or revelations, the general tone of light-to-moderate supply growth and reduced marketing during the month of March is likely. Most of these expectations have already been factored into the complex, and may not bring about any significant price shifts Thursday.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/18 11:33
DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/18 11:33 Wheat, Corn Lower at Midday Wheat is the downside leader at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 50 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 38 points higher. Energies are narrowly mixed. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold flat. CORN Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with light selling during the day session as we head to the long weekend The Western Corn Belt should be more open in the near term with the central part looking more open, and most rains concentrated to the east with forecasts showing more consistency, and the extended forecasts trending warmer. Ethanol blender margins have remained strong with ethanol futures edging slightly lower this morning. South American harvest should continue to move along at a good clip. The weekly export sales were improved at 947,600 metric tons old crop, and 18,400 of new. On the May nearby chart, support is the recent low at $3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at $3.61 nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.66. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with quiet midday trade going into the three-day market weekend. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 10 to 20 point higher. Crush margins have faded this week with basis trying to firm in spots of the central U.S. South American currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down, which should limit harvest pressure. On the trade front, further negotiations were announced with a projected end date in late May with trade remaining in show me mode. The weekly export sales were soft at 382,100 metric tons of old crop, 21,100 of new, meal 295,300 metric tons, and 24,200 of oil. On the May chart support is the recent low at $8.76 1/2, and then the six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.93 to $8.95 range. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower with early short covering giving way to renewed fund selling with the spreads favoring the higher protein wheats. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched closely for further rains, with a mixed start to the year with Romanian conditions off 20% from last year. The U.S. high Plains look drier in the near term, but moisture is very good for the moment with warmer temps to boost growth, with progress in the north likely to remain behind pace but should be more open into next week. The dollar is sharply higher this morning. The weekly export sales were mixed at 317,700 metric tons of old crop, and 227,800 of new. On the May KC chart support the fresh lows at $4.14, with the lower Bollinger band at $4.15, and resistance the 10-day at $4.26. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/18 11:41
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/18 11:41 Hog Futures Slip Lower Despite additional pork sales to China reported, traders pulled back from earlier support as export expectations remain high. Limited movement is seen in all markets ahead of the long weekend. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst General Comments Hog prices are mixed to mostly lower through morning trade with traders slowly but steadily backing away from the market at the end of the week. Additional sales of pork to China was not enough to spark buyer interest Thursday morning. Cattle trade remains mixed with limited activity seen ahead of the April 1 cattle on feed report. Corn futures are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 1 1/4 cent lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 109 points higher with Nasdaq down 6 points. LIVE CATTLE: Outside the lightly traded and soon-to-expire April live cattle futures, which have posted a firm bounce higher, light pressure is seen through the rest of the complex. Live cattle futures are generally steady to 20 cents lower, indicating an overall lack of direction in the market as interest has quickly eroded through the last couple of days. Traders seem to be showing little interest in the upcoming cattle on feed report which will be released Thursday afternoon. With markets closed Friday, traders will have an extra day to process and analyze report numbers before Monday's trade. Cash cattle activity remains sluggish with bids seen in parts of the north at $127 live and $204 dressed. Asking prices are holding at $128 to $130 live and $208 and higher dressed. Following light to moderate trade in Kansas and Texas Wednesday at $126 per cwt, most business is expected to be done in those areas. Cleanup trade may develop through the end of the week, although the tone of the market is likely set. It is uncertain if trade will develop in the North through the afternoon after the cattle on feed report, or if both sides will have to return Friday to finish business. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.65 lower (select) and up $0.45 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 54 total loads reported (27 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 8 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Firm nearby support is slowly moving into feeder cattle trade Thursday morning. With markets closed Friday and the release of April 1 cattle on feed report shifting to Thursday afternoon due to the Good Friday market holiday, traders are starting to adjust positions at the end of the week. Although estimates expect cattle placements during March to increase, most traders feel that these increases have already been factored into prices, and any placement levels lower than early estimates are expected to be neutral to bullish for the market. Limited buying may continue to trickle into the complex through the end of the session, although the direction remains unchanged. LEAN HOGS: Light to moderate pressure swiftly moved through lean hog futures despite additional pork sales to China. According to Thursday's export sales report, an additional 23,500 metric tons of pork was sold to China. This accounts for a two-week total of over 100,000 mt sold. The market was not encouraged by this amount of sales reported, allowing for prices to generally erode through the morning. Although the limited volume in the market on the last day of trade for the week may limit interest. The fact that current price levels have apparently factored in even larger sales is concerning. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.79 at $76.22 per cwt with the range from $71.00 to $77.47, on 6,043 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $2.09 at $76.37 per cwt with the range from $75.00 to $77.47, on 540 head reported sold. Pork values stabilized Thursday with very limited volume. Pork cutouts fell $0.01 per cwt at $86.99 per cwt with 139 loads traded. Lean hog index for 4/16 is $80.24 up 0.40, with a projected two-day index is $80.63 up 0.39. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 04/18 13:55
DTN Closing Grain Comments 04/18 13:55 Grains Quietly Mixed Ahead of a Long Weekend After starting the day with bearish export numbers for soybeans and wheat, and faced with Thursday's higher U.S. dollar, markets showed little response. Corn and soybeans finished slightly higher, while the three U.S. wheats ended with small losses.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 04/18 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 04/18/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 362 WEEK T0 DATE: 21,434
STEERS 84 126.00-126.00 126.00-126.00 126.00
HEIFERS No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 26,204 WEEK TO DATE: 30,598
STEERS 9,275 205.00-208.00 207.00-208.00 207.82
HEIFERS 1,572 207.00-208.00 207.00-208.00 207.77
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 609 WEEK TO DATE: 11,744
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable dressed trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 15,740 WEEK TO DATE: 19,220
STEERS 5,893 207.00-208.00 207.00-208.00 207.88
HEIFERS 2,276 207.00-208.00 207.00-208.00 207.74
COMMENTS: A light to moderate trade in the North today with dressed biz at
mostly $208, $3 hr than last week's weighted average live deals were at mostly
$130, also about $3 hr.
5-AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $126.03(1336) HIDE&OFFAL: $9.06 -0.12
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED 193.21 181.94 67,349
BOX BASED 221.06 207.46 49,975
AVE INDEX 207.14 +0.60 194.70 +0.10 117,324
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
233.06 +0.30 219.46 -0.70
64.45 LDS CH CUTS / 26.41 LDS SEL CUTS / 7.16 LDS TRIM / 15.60 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Frm on Ch & wk on Sel on lt-mod dem & mod offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 04/12 $225.72 +0.64
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $170.00 +0.66
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 40.95 lds / Unevenly stdy on lt dem & offers
90% TRIM: 22 lds: Wtd Avg $220.41 / Generally steady
FI KILL(WTD) THU 122(485) WK AGO 111(471) YR AGO 115(471) MIX: WED SH94/CB27
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 04/06/19 9,602 11,758
Week Ending: 03/30/19 8,324 10,574
Change from prev week: +1,278 +1,184
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 04/18 15:35
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 04/18 15:35 Livestock Futures Mixed in Quiet Trade Livestock futures ended mixed in quiet trade Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend. Increased cattle placements and more cattle in feed yards detailed in Thursday's USDA Cattle on Feed report may affect market direction early next week. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Livestock futures ended mixed Thursday in light trade, leaving traders to ponder further directional shifts early next week. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Apr live cattle up $1.60; Jun live cattle up $0.30; Apr feeder cattle up $0.38; Aug feeder cattle up $0.23; Jun lean hogs up $0.63; Jun lean hogs up $0.63. Markets will be closed Friday in observance of Good Friday, opening at normal times Monday. Light-to-moderate cash cattle trade developed in the North Thursday with prices at $130 to $132 live and $208 dressed. This is $3 per cwt higher than last week. Combined with Southern trade Wednesday at $126, $2 per cwt higher, the tone of the market appears to be set. There may be some additional clean-up trade late Thursday or sometime Friday, but most business needing to be done is likely in the books late afternoon Thursday. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.96 higher ($71-$81, weighted average $77.93) on 11,248 head sold. Corn futures were mixed in light trade with May up 1/4 cent per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 111 points higher with Nasdaq up 2 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 04/18 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 04/18 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 4/18/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAY 444.25 448.94 455.94 461.15 463.82 30.97 35.62 39.03 17 23 19 33 CBTWT JUL 448.25 452.56 459.83 465.36 468.88 30.17 34.74 38.25 16 22 16 28 KC WT MAY 420.00 421.19 426.08 431.47 441.15 35.89 37.31 38.09 23 30 17 21 KC WT JUL 425.75 427.00 432.61 438.39 449.28 34.94 36.28 37.15 22 27 15 18 MN WT MAY 523.25 527.44 527.94 537.81 550.27 28.64 32.01 37.42 30 42 13 15 MN WT JUL 529.50 531.56 533.50 542.63 553.48 26.80 30.43 36.34 31 31 11 12 CORN MAY 358.50 359.63 360.14 363.14 369.79 37.18 38.63 41.01 22 43 18 20 CORN JUL 367.25 368.38 368.83 372.17 378.68 36.96 38.40 41.01 21 42 17 19 CORN SEP 375.00 376.38 377.03 380.22 385.38 35.55 37.90 41.32 20 41 15 18 OATS MAY 292.00 293.94 287.86 282.50 276.11 59.99 59.47 55.99 75 85 86 78 OATS JUL 278.25 278.38 276.33 274.67 272.77 58.26 55.76 51.77 71 77 78 70 BEANS MAY 880.50 886.56 892.92 894.33 903.52 32.52 36.59 41.90 9 15 24 40 BEANS JUL 894.25 900.25 906.36 907.74 917.10 33.07 36.91 42.04 8 15 24 40 BEANS AUG 900.00 906.00 912.06 913.60 923.00 32.83 36.73 41.96 9 15 22 38 S MEAL MAY 303.20 306.15 307.57 308.19 308.55 35.50 39.74 43.94 4 23 23 35 S MEAL JUL 306.80 309.80 311.26 311.86 312.29 35.16 39.47 43.85 5 23 23 35 B OIL MAY 28.80 28.70 28.86 28.83 29.45 46.44 44.85 45.42 27 22 35 40 B OIL JUL 29.09 29.00 29.17 29.14 29.78 45.44 44.16 45.15 25 20 33 39 CATTLE APR 128.52 127.23 126.56 126.46 127.83 65.60 58.66 54.07 83 75 37 25 CATTLE JUN 122.68 122.24 121.30 120.60 120.50 66.17 61.51 58.31 84 79 54 41 FEEDER APR 145.70 145.59 145.70 145.67 145.93 49.16 49.08 49.27 57 43 25 25 FEEDER MAY 151.52 151.09 150.52 149.82 148.76 61.69 59.03 56.08 65 71 50 46 HOGS MAY 90.20 89.54 88.78 87.37 77.73 65.29 66.15 64.63 68 72 75 74 HOGS JUN 96.75 97.08 97.14 95.36 86.41 57.89 61.30 62.29 47 60 82 84 COTTON MAY 77.31 77.46 77.73 77.51 75.43 50.05 52.31 52.74 70 58 58 62 COTTON JUL 78.27 78.21 78.37 78.21 76.38 51.83 53.34 53.10 76 62 63 65 RICE MAY 10.43 10.49 10.41 10.62 10.64 39.85 41.52 44.84 60 69 26 18 RICE JUL 10.68 10.72 10.62 10.81 10.81 43.05 43.70 46.13 72 77 30 20
