DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/20 10:52
DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/20 10:52 Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 7 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are 22 to 48 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the S&P down 25 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude up .55 and natural gas down .17. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 3.50. CORN: Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with flat spread action as trade fades further back to the middle part of the range with little fresh news. The daily export wire has been quiet, while basis is showing some signs of life again. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by input costs with soft driving demand and still-burdensome stocks into late spring. The second crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch with drier weather in much of Brazil with some potential early frost threats short term. U.S. weather remains challenging for many in the short term with the north seeing a more-open, short-term forecast while remaining cool. On the July contract chart, we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.93 with the lower Bollinger Band at $7.67 as support. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 7 to 15 cents higher at midday with spread action continuing to firm with July working just above the $17.00 area Friday morning. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 higher and oil is 170 to 180 points higher with crush margins working to rebalance after meal led this week. South America is moving toward post-harvest footing at this point, with planting in the U.S. to continue to progress well in some areas with emergence catching up with the warm stretch. New-crop November is gaining against corn this morning, with time running short to hold acres. On the July soybean chart, we are well above the 20-day moving average at $16.50 with the upper Bollinger band at $17.19 the next round up. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 22 to 48 cents lower with spring wheat the downside leader with better planting progress expected short term; however, we see little change to Northern Hemisphere weather and the political situation. The U.S. dollar has faded off the top of the range as well. Warmer weather is helping maturity to catch up a bit, while the Kansas wheat tour finds generally disappointing yields with an average below 40 bushels per acre (bpa). KC wheat is back to a 21-cent discount to Minneapolis in narrower action, and at an 82-cent premium to Chicago, narrowing a bit as well. The KC July chart has resistance at the upper Bollinger band at $13.73, with the 20-day moving average well below the market at $12.04. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Early Word Grains 05/20 05:55
DTN Early Word Grains 05/20 05:55 Corn, Wheat Sag Lower Early Friday; China Cuts Interest Rate July corn was down 5 1/2 cents, July soybeans were up 1 cent and July KC wheat was down 16 cents. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: July corn was down 5 1/2 cents, July soybeans were up 1 cent and July KC wheat was down 16 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: Early Friday, U.S. stocks on the Dow Jones Industrials are trading higher, along with gains in Europe and Asia after the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut its prime rate on five-year loans from 4.60% to 4.45%. Surprisingly, China's yuan is also trading higher, at 6.68 per U.S. dollar early Friday. Deere is in line for Friday's earnings reports and wheat is starting lower in spite of freeze warnings in the northwestern Plains this weekend. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 236.94 at 31,253.13 and the S&P 500 down 22.89 at 3,900.79 as the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 2.85%, down from the highest level in three and a half years. Early Friday, June Dow Jones futures are trading up 309 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 1.27% and China's Shanghai Composite Index up 1.60%. European markets are higher with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading up 1.91%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading up 2.06% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading up 1.16%. The June euro is down $0.0023 at $1.0586. The June U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.19 at 102.95. The June 30-year T-bond is down 7/32nds, while June gold is up $2.00 at $1,843.20 and June crude oil is down $0.56 at $111.65. On China's Dalian exchange, September corn was down 0.2%, July soybeans were up 0.7%, September soybean meal was up 0.6% and September soybean oil was up 0.2%. June Malaysian palm oil is trading up 0.4%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 05/20 06:28
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 05/20 06:28 Mixed Trading Ahead of Report Nearby live cattle contracts closing positive along with deferred hog contracts. Live cattle showed limited price fluctuations. Feeder cattle were under pressure again despite lower corn futures. Hogs saw lower cash and cutouts. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $194.69 +$0.61* Hogs: Steady Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $110.88 -$0.15** *Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Most of the cash business has been done for the week at $2.00 lower. Traders are somewhat concerned over next week as packers again may not need to be aggressive due to a number of cattle already contracted. The other concern is a rising fear over a recession and the impact it would have on beef demand. Cattle futures may not see much volatility Friday as the Cattle on Feed report will be released after the close. Estimates for the report are for on feed at 101.4%, placements at 96.1% and marketings at 98%. Weekly export sales of 23,300 metric tons (mt) were 18% below the previous week. Boxed beef showed gains with choice up $1.23 and select up $0.04. Feeder cattle continue to struggle with steers and heifers being sold at lower prices. New contract low closes even in the face of weaker corn prices do not bode well for the market.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/20 11:37
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/20 11:37 Cattle Dig a Deeper Hole Friday Morning Heading into Friday's afternoon, the cattle market is desperate for support while the lean hog contracts keep their modest rally. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The livestock complex is a dreary place to be if you're in the cattle market, but the lean hog contracts are holding their own heading into Friday's afternoon. Friday afternoon the cattle market will see another Cattle on Feed report released, which will be the center of the market's attention Friday afternoon. July corn is down 7 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 354.02 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle market hasn't seen much support through Friday's trade and it's likely that the day rounds out the week with this lower tone. June live cattle are up $0.05 at $131.60, August live cattle are down $0.40 at $131.62 and October live cattle are down $0.47 at $137.52. The combination of the marketplace's worrisome tone, as it watches our economy crumble, along with the cash cattle market's measly interest and questionable boxed beef demand has the live cattle market quivering. But to be fair to the market and understand its seasonality, keep in mind that prices all fall lower heading into the summer months as supplies of market-ready cash cattle become ample. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any renewed interest and it's likely that the week's business is done with. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $136 to $138 ($2.00 lower) and Northern dressed cattle traded for $223 to $228 ($3.00 lower). Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.08 ($262.78) and select down $1.03 ($245.03) with a movement of 58 loads (25.61 loads of choice, 8.50 loads of select, 12.35 loads of trim and 11.92 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The recent change in corn/feeder cattle prices has shifted as the feeder cattle market watches the deferred live cattle contracts venture lower. When the live cattle market's deferred 2022 contracts held substantial premium to the spot market, feeders were hopeful that the input prices that it requires to feed cattle today would be compensated with stronger fat cattle prices toward the year's end. However, as the live cattle market falls under pressure, feeders are thankful to see the corn market's regression but are uneasy as the live cattle market isn't seeing the support it had earlier. August feeders are down $1.00 at $164.20, September feeders are down $0.85 at $167.05 and October feeders are down $0.70 at $169.50. LEAN HOGS: While the rest of the livestock complex trends lower, the lean hog contracts are grabbing all they can take heading into Friday's afternoon. June lean hogs are up $2.10 at $107.40, July lean hogs are up $0.85 at $107.82 and August lean hogs are up $0.60. The market has seen tremendous support both technically and fundamentally as pork cutout values and the cash hog market has been supportive. Traders are looking at the market and analyzing their positions, so long as support continues to flow into the marketplace, it's likely that they continue to support it as well. The projected lean hog index for April 19 is up $0.80 at $101.17, and the actual index for May 18 is up $0.29 at $100.37. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.02 with a weighted average of $112.25, ranging from $104.00 to $118.00 on 5,870 head and a five-day rolling average of $108.26. Pork cutouts total 160.27 loads with 148.31 loads of pork cuts and 11.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.18, $108.64. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/20 13:54
DTN Closing Grain Comments 05/20 13:54 Wheat Prices Lower a Third Day; Dow Jones Falls to New Low New-crop contracts of all three U.S. wheats were sharply lower Friday, finishing lower on a week that saw new highs Tuesday. Dow Jones futures were trading down over 500 points at its lowest level in over a year, pressured by fears of recession, explained CNBC.com. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: July corn closed down 4 1/2 cents and December corn was down 4 cents. July soybeans closed up 14 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 7 1/4 cents. July KC wheat closed down 42 1/2 cents, July Chicago wheat was down 31 3/4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 50 1/4 cents. The June U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.51 at 103.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 513.71 points at 30,739.42. June gold is down $0.80 at $1,840.40, July silver is down $0.27 at $21.64 and July copper is down $0.0125. July crude oil is up $0.45 at $110.34, July heating oil is down $0.0445, July RBOB gasoline is up $0.0060 and July natural gas is down $0.222.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 05/20 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 05/20/22
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 14,289
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 22,935
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 7,508
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 955
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 347 WEEK TO DATE: 29,268
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Some light scattered trade was reported in Iowa today.
This week Southern live trade has had a range of $136 to $138, mostly $138,
$2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals have had
a range of $223 to $228, mostly $226, $3 lower than last week's weighted
average basis Nebraska.
The May 1 on feed report listed 12.0 million head, up 2% from May 2021, the
highest May 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in April
totaled 1.81 million head, 1% below last year; marketing's in April totaled
1.89 million head, 2% less than the prior year; other disappearance in April
totaled 54,000 head, 2% under the same time last year.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $141.25(1438) HIDE&OFFAL: $13.46 +0.11
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $208.49 $194.54 72,374
BOX BASED $250.17 $231.02 39,357
AVE INDEX $229.33 Unchg $212.78 -1.75 111,731
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$262.17 +0.47 $243.02 -3.04
41.68 LDS CH CUTS / 15.65 LDS SEL CUTS / 17.56 LDS TRIM / 14.75 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $19.15 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 90
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 05/06 $261.25 -4.86
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $219.40 +0.44
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 48.63 lds / Shrply lr on lt dem & hvy offers
90% TRIM: 04 lds: Wtd Avg: $274.53 / Firm
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 123(622) WK AGO 120(615) YR AGO 119(593) MIX: THU SH96/CB29
SAT 58(680) WK AGO 42(657) YR AGO 80(672)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 05/07/22 5,033 9,060
Week Ending: 04/23/22 5,128 9,650
Change from prev week: +792 -242
DTN Chart Technical Points 05/20 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 05/20 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 5/20/22 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT JUL1168.751219.381187.441133.611094.08 52.81 55.54 56.90 40 66 78 86 CBTWT SEP1174.501223.061191.081136.221088.37 53.76 56.81 58.42 41 67 79 87 KC WT JUL1252.751310.061279.971208.141148.71 53.35 56.82 58.66 39 66 80 90 KC WT SEP1256.751313.001282.531210.821146.67 53.83 57.47 59.52 40 67 81 91 MN WT JUL1279.001338.941316.811251.631170.72 51.77 56.99 59.96 31 60 77 89 MN WT SEP1278.751337.131313.671246.041156.58 53.04 58.53 61.87 33 62 79 90 CORN JUL 778.75 786.06 787.81 793.03 771.02 43.97 48.38 54.81 18 39 39 41 CORN SEP 747.00 755.88 756.64 755.67 732.68 45.72 50.30 56.72 17 45 65 69 CORN DEC 732.00 742.25 743.44 740.40 717.82 45.43 50.25 57.03 18 47 69 77 OATS JUL 612.75 634.00 624.47 639.79 683.01 36.91 38.94 44.09 40 64 31 27 OATS SEP 584.25 594.63 584.61 585.82 583.62 47.90 49.66 52.25 44 67 71 63 BEANS JUL1705.251684.131650.251649.171653.74 66.92 61.25 57.67 85 85 66 47 BEANS AUG1641.751625.881598.391598.711606.42 64.15 59.12 56.37 84 84 64 48 BEANS SEP1567.001556.631534.171531.321531.08 62.39 58.54 56.42 78 81 71 56 S MEAL JUL 429.90 420.25 411.03 417.33 443.25 60.77 52.40 49.00 86 81 34 21 S MEAL AUG 424.20 415.68 406.39 411.47 434.40 62.59 53.58 49.66 86 83 36 22 B OIL JUL 80.93 81.13 82.03 82.17 77.19 48.84 52.38 56.65 20 32 38 51 B OIL AUG 77.99 78.34 78.77 78.78 74.37 49.75 53.39 57.43 23 39 47 57 CATTLE JUN 131.58 131.89 132.27 133.19 135.09 38.67 40.72 43.69 11 25 13 15 CATTLE AUG 131.55 132.19 132.95 134.63 136.46 31.76 35.37 40.96 11 22 9 9 FEEDER MAY 153.40 155.14 156.64 158.18 161.28 25.73 32.21 38.79 4 9 5 11 FEEDER AUG 163.93 165.42 167.28 170.17 173.60 26.69 32.21 38.28 16 16 7 11 HOGS JUN 108.88 106.36 103.32 104.57 113.16 58.56 51.97 48.87 92 93 37 23 HOGS JUL 109.00 108.06 104.51 106.50 114.26 54.12 49.56 48.13 92 93 41 26 COTTON JUL 142.27 145.73 145.65 146.43 138.82 44.83 49.41 54.67 29 45 60 60 COTTON OCT 131.78 135.45 134.67 133.07 125.79 46.87 52.83 58.84 13 46 78 84 RICE JUL 17.17 17.03 17.16 17.13 16.64 53.09 54.37 56.03 18 24 48 63 RICE SEP 17.38 17.24 17.30 17.23 16.62 56.77 58.67 62.08 24 28 54 68
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/20 16:07
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 05/20 16:07 Cattle Lower While Hogs Grow Stronger Friday Friday's market was a mixed bag as for the cattle contracts -- it couldn't end soon enough, but for the lean hog complex support was easily found. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: While the cattle contracts kept with their descend through closing Friday, the lean hog complex opted to grow stronger as the day traded on. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.46 with a weighted average of $112.97 on 7,040 head. July corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 49.67 points.
