DTN Early Word Grains 10/15 05:49
DTN Early Word Grains 10/15 05:49 Softer Tone as Prices Consolidate, Harvest Progress Eyed December corn was down 1 3/4, November soybeans were down 2 3/4, and December MPLS wheat was down 1 1/4. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn was down 1 3/4, November soybeans were down 2 3/4, and December MPLS wheat was down 1 1/4. CME Globex Recap: Global equities are weaker as the combination of trade war fears and potential retaliation toward Saudi Arabia on the missing journalist keep investors nervous. Fears Saudi Arabia could use oil prices as an economic weapon supported energy markets overnight. Weaker grain markets to start the week with expectations for harvest to resume in a big way by the end of the week. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 287.16 points at 25,339.99 and the S&P 500 up 38.76 points at 2,767.13 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 3.167%. Early Monday, DJIA futures were down 121.00. Asian markets were lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 423.36 points (-1.87%) and China's Shanghai Composite was down 38.81 points (-1.49%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 23.70 points (-0.34%), Germany's DAX down 7.89 points (-0.07%), and France's CAC 40 down 21.66 points (-0.43%). The euro was down 0.00095 at 1.15865 and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.00180 at 95.0780. September 30-year T-Bonds were down 9/32nds while December gold was up $14.10 at $1236.10 and November crude oil was up $0.40 at $71.74. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange closed down 0.19% and soymeal closed down 0.75%.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 07/26
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/15 05:52
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/15 05:52 Cattle Paper Staged to Open Mixed Live and feeder futures seemed geared to open on a mixed basis thanks to residual selling and early-week short-covering. Lean hogs should also begin with mixed price action with nearbys gaining on deferreds. By John Harrington DTN Livestock Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $135.75 + .08* Hogs: Steady-$1 HR Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 85.07 +1.45** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Feedlot country should start out Monday morning with the typical assortment of new showlists. Our guess is that ready numbers will be found to be about steady with last week. Early asking prices are likely to be around $112 to $114 in the South and $175 plus in the North. Live and feeder futures seem likely to open on a mixed basis thanks to follow-though selling and early-week short-covering.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/15 11:03
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/15 11:03 Soybeans Leading Grains at Midday Corn and soybeans score new highs for the move, wheat narrowly mixed. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 70. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 18 lower. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.25. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 8.60. CORN Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade scoring new highs for the move with support from soybeans and weather. More open weather should return this week, but will take a bit to get everyone back up to speed. Ethanol margins remain under pressure with the firmer corn trade and weaker recent action in the energy complex with ethanol futures still holding the $1.31 area. Corn basis is expected to stay sideways with wet weather limiting weakness in some areas. The weekly export inspections were a bit disappointing at 996,643 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show harvest falling behind normal, with steady conditions. On the December chart support is at the $3.67 10-day with trade above the 100-day at midday at 3.73, and the 200-day next resistance at $3.88. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 13 to 16 cents higher at midday with damage concerns helping to boost trade with the recent highs being taken out this morning. Meal is 6.00 to 7.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Soybean basis has found some footing with the delays, although it remains abnormally wide with more focus on quality losses with aggressive discounts seen along the river system. Crop losses from the weather will likely take awhile for trade to sort out which will likely trigger volatile trade. Crush margins remain strong. South America should continue to see fairly normal early season progress in the near term. Weekly crop progress will likely show harvest well behind average now. Weekly export inspections were stronger at 1.157 million metric tons. On the November chart, support is the 10-day at $8.63 with resistance the 100-day at 8.89. WHEAT Wheat trade is mixed at midday with trade trying to build on the Friday gains, led by the winter wheats. The U.S. dollar has faded back below 95 with some light selling to start the week. World spring wheat harvest is nearing completion, while winter wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the Plains. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with some relief in the drier areas. Weekly crop progress is expected to show planting and emergence near average. Weekly export inspections were inline with recent weeks at 450,980 metric tons. On the December Kansas City chart, we are just above at the 10-day and 20-day at 5.20 with the lower Bollinger Band support at 5.09, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $5.30. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/15 11:39
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/15 11:39 Hog Futures Rally Monday Morning Strong triple-digit gains have flooded the lean hog complex. This is pushing nearby lean hog trade to gains near $2 per cwt at midday as buyers quickly and aggressively step back into the complex. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Strong renewed buyer support has quickly swept through lean hog futures with prices holding gains from $1 to $2 per cwt through the morning. Cattle markets are much more subdued, although the firming support in live cattle futures could help to bring additional interest to the entire complex. Corn markets are higher in light trade. December corn futures are 3 cents higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 40 points lower while Nasdaq is down 45 points. LIVE CATTLE: Buyer support has redeveloped in live cattle trade at midday following narrow losses seen during most of the morning. Prices are mostly higher with prices still holding a moderate range from 27 cents lower to 50 cents higher. December contracts have been able to develop the most aggressive buyer activity, helping to bring additional support to the complex. Despite strong pressure last week, prices still remain well within the wide sideways range seen through the past two months. Cash cattle activity appears to be done for the week following light to moderate trade in all areas Thursday. Cash cattle interest is quiet Monday following light to moderate trade that developed through the last half of the week last week. Both sides are unlikely to show much interest with show list distribution and inventory taking focus of the day. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.61 lower (select) and up $1.48 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 51 total loads reported (33 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Follow-through price pressure has been seen through most of the morning despite an early attempt to bring some stability back to the complex during the first few minutes of trade. Feeder cattle futures are focusing on the renewed buyer support in the grain complex that has pushed corn and soybean markets higher through morning activity. Losses through the complex have held in a moderate range from 70 cents to $1 per cwt, with very limited interest in market stability through the end of the session. LEAN HOGS: Sharp gains continue to hold across all lean hog futures with triple-digit gains seen in all remaining 2018 and all 2019 contracts. Spot month December contracts are leading the complex higher with a $1.97 per cwt rally. The sharp losses seen last week has left the entire complex oversold, with the focus on increased buyer support moving back into the complex through the entire session. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $1.03 lower at $60.37 per cwt with the range from $55.00 to $61.40 on 5,158 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $1.82 lower at $58.76 per cwt with the range from $55.00 to $61.25 on 1,780 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 118 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values gained $1.42 per cwt at $81.46 per cwt. Lean hog index for 10/11 is at $68.99 down 0.29 with a projected two-day index of 68.75, down 0.24. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (SK) Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/15 13:58
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/15 13:58 Soybeans, Meal Lead Crop Prices Higher November soybeans jumped up 24 cents and December soybean meal finished up $10.10, getting boosts from crop concerns in the field and commercial buying. Corn and wheat posted more modest gains but did end higher as did most other commodities on Monday.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 10/15 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 10/15/18
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK T0 DATE: 0
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 67 WEEK TO DATE: 67
STEERS No reportable trade
HEIFERS No reportable trade
COMMENTS: A typical Monday with the cash trade at a complete standstill.
5-AREA LV STR AVE PR&WT: $108.60(1454) HIDE&OFFAL: $9.09 -0.01
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED 166.12 154.33 84,074
BOX BASED 192.80 179.89 45,320
AVE INDEX 179.46 +0.88 167.11 -0.46 129,394
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
204.80 +2.09 191.89 -0.39
62.01 LDS CH CUTS / 22.85 LDS SEL CUTS / 0.00 LDS TRIM / 9.07 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Shrply hr on ch & wk on sel on lt-mod dem & offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 10/12 $201.19 -0.11
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $155.82 -0.17
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 9.21 lds / Not fully established
90% TRIM: 04 lds: Wtd Avg $192.07 / Unevenly steady
FI KILL(WTD) MON 119 WK AGO 114 YR AGO 111 MIX: FRI SH92/CB23 SAT SH48/CB8
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 09/29/18 2,253 8,8573
Week Ending: 09/22/18 2,708 8,959
Change from prev week: -455 -86
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/15 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/15 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 10/15/18 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 525.00 515.19 516.00 516.99 526.57 59.13 53.48 49.53 53 29 49 51 CBTWT MAR 543.75 535.44 535.86 536.21 546.88 58.95 53.20 49.36 55 32 52 53 KC WT DEC 531.75 521.50 520.92 520.83 532.68 61.42 54.62 49.46 65 39 59 56 KC WT MAR 555.50 545.50 544.47 544.44 555.64 62.08 55.15 49.91 69 43 62 60 MN WT DEC 600.50 594.44 592.33 587.00 588.32 66.70 59.85 52.80 62 51 84 80 MN WT MAR 608.25 602.88 602.89 599.42 602.49 61.58 56.37 51.23 45 33 73 74 CORN DEC 378.25 371.00 368.39 364.82 363.95 70.57 64.04 55.03 90 66 89 87 CORN MAR 390.25 383.00 380.33 376.78 376.01 70.87 64.32 55.33 91 69 90 88 CORN MAY 397.25 390.13 387.47 384.21 383.53 70.89 64.29 55.38 92 69 89 86 OATS DEC 300.25 289.75 286.36 273.43 261.96 83.55 78.47 68.53 67 58 86 86 OATS MAR 288.50 279.81 278.08 270.40 263.54 78.54 73.41 64.33 58 42 83 83 BEANS NOV 891.50 867.38 865.78 858.36 853.84 71.21 64.89 54.57 75 51 82 82 BEANS JAN 905.75 881.50 879.67 872.29 867.26 71.53 65.22 54.94 77 53 83 83 BEANS MAR 918.00 894.06 892.17 884.99 879.80 72.03 65.64 55.45 80 55 84 84 S MEAL DEC 327.00 319.10 317.30 314.24 315.90 71.62 63.61 53.27 67 55 79 76 S MEAL JAN 328.40 320.03 317.94 314.93 315.88 73.43 65.19 54.29 74 62 82 79 B OIL DEC 29.76 29.27 29.43 29.12 28.66 64.59 62.02 55.53 71 43 74 76 B OIL JAN 30.00 29.51 29.66 29.36 28.90 64.76 62.10 55.51 72 43 74 76 CATTLE OCT 113.38 112.60 113.17 113.16 111.23 54.64 55.10 54.88 29 20 52 71 CATTLE DEC 117.97 116.85 117.52 117.94 115.72 55.14 55.56 55.78 35 21 36 54 FEEDER OCT 155.10 155.61 156.63 157.21 154.02 40.23 46.27 51.96 25 20 31 53 FEEDER NOV 155.23 155.69 157.05 157.40 154.12 40.23 46.23 51.99 22 21 37 61 HOGS DEC 56.75 55.53 56.25 57.02 55.18 51.68 52.22 52.58 35 26 31 41 HOGS FEB 63.90 63.27 64.84 65.29 63.56 45.66 48.34 51.56 14 10 23 45 COTTON DEC 78.72 77.68 77.09 77.45 80.19 58.78 50.15 45.09 73 62 30 21 COTTON MAR 79.84 78.90 78.15 78.26 80.71 62.14 52.55 46.36 79 73 35 23 RICE NOV 10.75 10.76 10.77 10.34 10.51 61.25 57.41 50.64 33 50 82 84 RICE JAN 10.93 10.92 10.95 10.52 10.67 60.34 57.22 50.81 37 50 79 84
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/15 16:07
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/15 16:07 Prices Surge on Late-Day Support Strong late-day buyer support moved into live cattle futures, which helped to offset active pressure seen through most of the session. Triple-digit gains in hog futures are helping to spark renewed underlying trade activity. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Cash cattle markets are undeveloped Monday afternoon with asking prices and bids unavailable at this point. This is what is typically expected for a Monday, as traders focus on active trade being delayed until the second half of the week. Showlists for the week appear to be mixed with larger offerings seen in Nebraska offsetting lower numbers in Kansas. Texas and Colorado are generally steady with last week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1.07 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($55.00-$61.40, weighted average $60.33). Corn futures were higher in light activity with the December contract closing 4 1/2 cents higher. The Dow Jones Index was 2 points lower with Nasdaq down 43 points.
