DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/18 06:42
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/18 06:42 Momentum in Hog Markets Continue Lean hog markets continue to remain in the spotlight with the focus on changes in global demand sparking additional interest in U.S. pork. Underlying support is expected to continue through the end of the week, potentially helping to bring spillover support to cattle futures.
DTN Early Word Grains 09/18 05:49
DTN Early Word Grains 09/18 05:49 Soybean Rally Presses Higher, More Aid Announced December corn is up 1 3/4 cents, November soybeans are up 11 cents and December KC wheat is up 4 cents. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: December corn is up 1 3/4 cents, November soybeans are up 11 cents and December KC wheat is up 4 cents. CME Globex Recap: Early Friday, Dow Jones futures are trading modestly lower and the December U.S. Dollar Index is also a little lower with stock markets mixed overseas. According to several news sources, U.S. President Donald Trump announced $13 billion of aid to farmers at a political rally in Wisconsin with further details expected to be released later Friday. Crude oil is slightly higher after the world's major oil producers met and agreed Thursday to comply with the production cuts started in August and designed to run into December, acknowledging that coronavirus concerns continue to weaken oil demand. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 130.40 at 27,901.98 and the S&P 500 down 28.48 at 3,357.01 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 0.68%. Early Friday, December Dow Jones futures are down 42 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 40.93 points (0.2%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 67.65 points (2.1%). European markets are mixed with London's FTSE 100 down 21.38 points (-0.4%), Germany's DAX up 19.80 points (0.1%) and France's CAC 40 down 17.74 points (-0.4%). The December euro is up $.0019 at $1.1880. The December U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.12 at 92.85. The December 30-year T-bond is down 1/32nd, while December gold is up $12.70 at $1,962.60 and October crude oil is up $0.09 at $41.06. On China's Dalian Exchange, soybeans, corn and soybean meal are all trading higher. November palm oil is trading up 3.0% Friday near its highest spot prices in 2020.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/18 12:32
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/18 12:32
Cattle Contracts Take Friday's Momentum
Seeing the opportunity to jump higher before the week's close, cattle
contracts rally modestly and a bump in cash prices helps support the movement.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
General Comments
The board's midmorning shift to higher prices complemented the cash cattle
market and sent dressed cattle prices in Nebraska $2.00 higher than Thursday's
trade and $4.00 higher than last week's average. The cattle market's support is
coming as a pleasant surprise and even though the lean hog market is trading
lower, its losses remain mild and with news about another round of CFAP
payments, widespread support could carry over into the lean hog complex before
the day is over. December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December
soybean meal is up $6.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 76.04 points
and NASDAQ is down 128.42 points.
The other important news is that on Friday morning USDA released details
about another round of CFAP payments. DTN's Ag Policy Editor Chris Clayton
shared the specifics of the announcement, which can be found here in the Ag
News section on DTN subscription products.
http://online.dtn.com/online/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/news/template1&pane
ContentId=5&paneParentId=50017&product=/ag/news/topstories&vendorReference=4fb56
b91-6376-4a7b-ad41-ef73067a03fe. But for beef cattle, hogs and pigs the payment
will be of the inventory owned (excluding breeding stock) from April 16,2020 to
August 31,2020.
LIVE CATTLE
Just when we thought the week's price range had been established - feedlots
in the North continued to market their cattle vigorously, not caving early in
the week and lo-and-behold they pulled another $2.00 (on top of what the market
already gained earlier in the week) from packers Friday morning. Early Friday
morning the board was indecisive on how it was going to trade but midmorning
support continued to build and now the complex enters Friday afternoon fully
higher. It was also interesting to see that of some of the cattle that traded,
packers called for delivery as early as next week. Maybe packers need more
cattle than assumed? With their willingness to pay higher prices at the end of
the week and need of cattle delivered next week, it seems likely. October live
cattle are up $0.45 at $107.22, December live cattle are up $0.75 at $112.05
and February live cattle are up $0.55 at $116.32. It was surprising to see the
morning boxed beef prices higher as consumer demand continues to pressure the
beef sector.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.57 ($215.62) and select up $0.60
($203.99) with a movement of 74 loads (48.27 loads of choice, 10.86 loads of
select, 5.06 loads of trim and 9.79 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts jumped on the bandwagon; trading fully higher in
Friday's afternoon trade. September feeders are up $1.05 at $140.95, October
feeders are up $1.32 at $142.77 and November feeders are up $0.70 at $142.90.
Even though the corn market is seeing a two to three cent rally, the optimism
building in the cattle sector is outweighing the concern in the corn market.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog market would like to trade higher but is merely stuck trading
sideways as traders sway back and forth. October lean hogs are up $0.20 at
$66.72, December lean hogs are down $0.32 at $63.30 and February lean hogs are
down $0.05 at $68.15. As the complex keeps trading sideways, more resistance is
being built at the $68.00 threshold.
The projected lean hog index for 9/17/2020 is up $1.74 at $69.58 and the
actual index for 9/16/2020 is up $1.42 at $67.84. Hog prices are lower on the
National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.00 with a weighted average of
$60.61, ranging from $50.00 to $64.00 on 7,465 head with a five-day rolling
average of $58.36. Pork cutouts total 252.54 loads with 220.62 loads of pork
cuts and 31.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.16, $88.19.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 07/24
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 15:09
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 15:09 Grains Trending Higher at Midday Corn is flat to 1 cent higher, soybeans are 10 to 12 cents higher, and wheat is 5 to 13 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst The U.S. stock market weaker with the Dow down 55 points. The dollar index is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $12. CORN Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with trade following soybeans higher again with fresh highs being scored again overnight with spreads softer at midday, and 210,000 metric tons of corn sold to China. Ethanol margins continue to see pressure with the firm corn trade with unleaded bouncing slightly. Basis has remained fairly flat with steady action expected to start the week. On the December contract, trade has support at the $3.60 20-day moving average, with the recent high at $3.79 as resistance. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 10 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade scoring new highs with more export sales showing up of 132,000 metric tons of beans to China, and 100,000 mt of meal to unknown. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The real remains in the lower end of the range ahead of South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine farmer selling remains slow. Export offers continue to get tighter in availability as well. The November chart has resistance at the upper Bollinger band at $10.44 which is also where the overnight high was with support the 20-day at $9.67. WHEAT Wheat trade is 5 to 13 cents higher at midday with the row crops pulling wheat along while European dryness will remain supportive short term. The dollar remains steady vs. the ruble with little change in world export competitiveness. Kansas City is at a 66-cent discount to Chicago with spreads near the recent lows, while Minneapolis is back to a 16-cent discount with wider action to start. Wheat drilling progress should expand across the plains short term with OK moisture for most. Weekly export sales were softer at 335,700 metric tons. Kansas City December chart resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.93 with $5.00 the next round up which we are testing at midday, and support is the 20-day at $4.72. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/18 15:10
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/18 15:10 Grains Rally Into Weekend Led By Winter Wheat, Soybeans Friday's trade showed no sign of profit-taking in the grain sector as U.S. winter wheat contracts and November soybeans posted double-digit gains at the close. December soybean meal also had a bullish day, closing up $6.80 after USDA reported an export sale of 100,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown destinations.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 09/18 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 09/18/20
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 358 WEEK TO DATE: 17,239
STEERS LIVE FOB
173 103.00-103.00 103.00-103.00 103.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
185 103.00-103.00 103.00-103.00 103.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 6,465 WEEK TO DATE: 24,902
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
1,814 163.00-165.00 163.00-165.00 164.90
STEERS DRESSED FOB
183 165.00-165.00 165.00-165.00 165.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
873 163.00-165.00 163.00-165.00 164.63
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
200 165.00-165.00 165.00-165.00 165.00
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 12,340
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,706 WEEK TO DATE: 28,705
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
151 162.00-164.00 162.00-164.00 163.51
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Some light trade in the North today at fully steady money,
and a little cleanup in Texas, also at fully steady money. This week's
business has been at $103 to $105, mostly $103 in the South, $2 higher than
last week's weighted averages. Northern dress trade ranged from $162 to
$165, mostly $163, $2 higher than the prior week's weighted average basis
Nebraska.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $103.97(1493) HIDE&OFFAL: $8.03 +0.13
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $156.31 $140.21 80,708
BOX BASED $203.64 $191.94 62,861
AVE INDEX $179.98 +0.55 $166.08 +0.53 143,569
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$215.64 +0.59 $203.94 +0.55
83.84 LDS CH CUTS / 20.79 LDS SEL CUTS / 28.42 LDS TRIM / 13.45 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Not available due to changes on USDA reports
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 09/11 $219.37 -4.04
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $178.10 -0.97
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 48.07 lds / Stdy/frm on mod dem & hvy offers
90% TRIM: 06 lds: Wtd Avg $216.88 / Sharply lower
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 111(590) WK AGO 119(479) YR AGO 116(587) MIX: THU SH95/CB24
SAT 55(645) WK AGO 95(574) YR AGO 73(661)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 09/05/20 2,753 8,289
Week Ending: 08/29/20 1,262 6,801
Change from prev week: +1,491 +1,488
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/18 15:53
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/18 15:53 Cattle Contracts Secure Late Gains Friday Friday's trade was worth watching as cash cattle trade jumped higher yet again and allowed the cattle contracts to close stronger. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Earlier this week it seemed like the week's sole attention was going to align with the lean hog complex, leaving the cattle complex to drift merely lower. But as the week's cash cattle trade developed for stronger money, traders noticed the underlying support and upon Friday's $4.00 cash cattle jump, the markets rallied. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.35 with a weighted average of $60.26 on 8,722 head. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $6.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 244.69 points and NASDAQ is down 117.00 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/18 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/18 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 9/18/20 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 575.00 552.88 548.39 549.35 534.24 72.50 67.44 60.66 79 53 65 61 CBTWT MAR 582.75 561.19 557.03 557.63 541.73 72.93 68.05 61.25 80 53 68 64 KC WT DEC 504.25 483.69 477.11 474.64 456.68 77.74 71.68 61.88 82 58 77 70 KC WT MAR 515.00 494.44 488.00 485.47 467.40 77.90 71.89 62.04 82 58 77 71 MN WT DEC 551.25 537.13 535.39 538.03 527.08 69.18 64.88 57.95 76 47 55 53 MN WT MAR 563.25 549.50 548.25 550.49 540.10 68.90 64.72 57.94 75 45 56 54 CORN DEC 378.50 372.88 368.50 362.74 344.52 79.37 75.09 65.39 93 86 94 94 CORN MAR 387.50 382.06 378.14 372.89 355.49 79.51 75.22 65.41 94 87 95 95 CORN MAY 392.75 387.25 383.97 379.07 362.49 79.02 75.00 65.46 95 85 95 95 OATS DEC 283.25 274.56 272.25 272.03 269.03 69.13 63.64 57.10 84 70 71 65 OATS MAR 283.00 275.38 272.69 271.35 269.16 72.23 66.14 57.90 88 78 80 71 BEANS NOV1043.501018.69 999.94 974.49 925.91 90.26 87.02 78.34 94 84 94 94 BEANS JAN1047.251022.381003.89 979.50 931.31 90.35 87.17 78.64 94 85 94 94 BEANS MAR1038.001018.001001.00 978.44 930.68 90.98 87.90 79.42 91 85 94 94 S MEAL OCT 337.40 325.72 319.42 311.23 299.71 82.97 78.90 70.58 91 73 89 88 S MEAL DEC 342.10 330.58 324.34 316.37 304.09 82.61 78.54 70.36 91 74 89 88 B OIL OCT 35.23 34.79 34.03 33.44 31.81 78.89 75.36 70.21 89 85 91 86 B OIL DEC 35.14 34.77 34.10 33.55 31.98 77.42 73.92 69.03 86 83 90 86 CATTLE OCT 107.35 106.99 106.21 105.91 106.88 59.43 55.40 54.75 70 76 48 37 CATTLE DEC 111.85 111.68 110.78 110.00 110.67 60.97 57.66 56.23 73 81 68 53 FEEDER SEP 140.88 140.74 140.11 140.08 142.86 51.40 49.08 51.47 44 62 40 33 FEEDER OCT 142.43 142.50 141.21 140.82 143.51 54.20 51.72 52.59 58 73 51 38 HOGS OCT 66.50 65.99 64.53 60.32 54.84 75.99 73.54 65.76 47 53 81 85 HOGS DEC 63.53 63.04 62.57 59.53 55.38 66.92 67.10 62.91 33 40 70 80 COTTON OCT 64.16 64.72 64.32 64.38 63.33 48.79 51.45 53.36 24 52 70 65 COTTON DEC 65.66 66.08 65.42 65.29 63.90 55.44 56.42 56.29 59 73 81 74 RICE NOV 12.52 12.27 12.29 12.30 12.01 63.72 60.90 58.00 51 29 32 40 RICE JAN 12.68 12.45 12.47 12.46 12.15 64.11 61.52 58.57 55 32 39 46
