US Direct Feeder Pigs 01/13
DTN Early Word Grains 01/17 05:57
DTN Early Word Grains 01/17 05:57 Grains Mostly Recover Ahead of Weekend March corn is up 3 cents per bushel, March soybeans are down 1 1/4 cents, and March KC wheat is up 1 cent. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn is up 3 cents per bushel, March soybeans are down 1 1/4 cents, and March KC wheat is up 1 cent. CME Globex Recap: Equity markets are higher around the globe with U.S. equities eyeing fresh record highs, supported by the relative calm on the global trade front. In focus overnight was Chinese economic data which showed growth in the second largest economy slowing to the lowest rate since 1990. Gross domestic product in China grew at 6.1% in 2019, matching the analyst estimate but also revealing an economy under pressure. GDP growth between October and December was 6.0% from the year before. This was undoubtedly part of the willingness to do something on "phase-one" with the U.S., even if many on the U.S. side aren't completely sold on the agreement. Grains are mostly recovering overnight after a wake-up call on Thursday. The reaction on social media to the CBOT losses was telling and it seemed to reveal a bit more length at the farm gate level than many were previously willing to admit. Trends are still up in wheat, although corn and soybeans have some major blemishes on their charts that need to see recovery soon to avoid revisiting November/December lows. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 267.42 at 29,297.64 and the S&P 500 up 27.52 at 3,289.29 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.809%. Early Friday, the March DJIA futures are up 83 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 108.13 (0.45%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 1.41 points (0.05%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 64.92 points (0.85%), Germany's DAX up 125.65 points (0.94%) and France's CAC 40 up 70.78 points (1.17%). The March Euro is down 0.001 at 1.120 and the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.073 at 97.135. The March 30-Year T-Bond is down 21/32nds, while February gold is up $5.60 at $1,556.10 and February crude oil is up $0.31 at $58.83. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were down 0.17% while soybean meal was down 0.22%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 01/17 06:22
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 01/17 06:22 Market Stability Sought Before Long Weekend Following strong pressure through the last couple of days, traders are searching for market stability Friday morning as they prepare for a three-day weekend. The ability to regain limited to moderate market support through the session would go a long way in rekindling buyer interest early next week. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady to Lower Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $142.97 +0.59* Hogs: Steady Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv $ 80.40 +0.80** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Light-to-moderate cash cattle trade developed during the day Thursday as both sides appear to be trying to wrap up as much business ahead of the widespread winter storm system moving through cattle country Friday. This is likely to impact overall movement of cattle through the end of the week as well as the ability to sell additional cattle before the long weekend. Cattle sold generally steady to $1 per cwt lower Thursday and will likely set the tone for any remaining cattle on showlists that need to be sold before the end of the week. Prices in the South were seen at $123 to $124 per cwt, mostly $124, and steady with last week. Northern dressed cattle held a full range of $197 to $200, with most selling at $199 per cwt. This is $1 per cwt lower than last week and will likely limit the upside potential for any additional selling before the end of the week. Futures trade is expected mixed but generally weak early Friday morning. Although active pressure has developed during the trading week, prices are still above initial support levels, leaving markets hovering in a generally sideways trading range for now. An effort to cover short positions ahead of the weekend is likely to bring about limited market gains Friday. Futures markets will remain closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr., creating some underlying uncertainty with a three-day weekend many times leaving the market generally unsettled. Friday slaughter runs are expected near 119,000 head.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/17 11:01
DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/17 11:01 Grains Trending Higher at Midday The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 30. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are flat. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold 6.30 higher. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments CORN Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents higher at midday with good buying during the day session as we bounce back to the mid-part of the range. Ethanol margins remain tight, with futures just above the lows with export business needing to pick up, or we will likely see plants being idled again soon. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term movement in most areas. Basis has -remained sideways overall this week. On the March contract support is $3.77 recent low, with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.79 just above that, and resistance the 20-day at $3.85. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 1 cent lower higher at midday with trade still grinding near the lows with one more gap area to fill nearby with trade still waiting to see fresh export news. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. The Brazilian ral remains very cheap as well. South American weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans as well. Basis has remained firm at processors with the strong crush margins. The March chart support is at the December gap at $9.15 after trade fell below the $9.27 gap yesterday which is resistance for now. WHEAT Wheat trade is 1 cent to 5 cent higher at midday with Minneapolis taking the lead after Chicago was the overnight leader. Cold threats remain limited for the Plains with most of the moisture staying to the east, with western snow cover remaining limited, while Russia has been warmer and drier while the dollar gains vs. the ruble. Kansas City is at an 80 cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 12 cent discount. The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.79, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 5.03. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (AG) Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/17 12:12
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 01/17 12:12 Finding Some Common Ground Finding some steady ground, livestock contracts trade lower but only in a subtle nature. It appears the emotional shake of Wednesday's trade agreement is starting to subside, and trade is finding comfort at slightly lower, steady sideways prices. It wouldn't be unlikely to see the rest of the day pass by without a whole lot of market action between here and closing. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst General Comments It appears the emotional shake of Wednesday's trade agreement is starting to subside, and trade is finding comfort at slightly lower, steady sideways prices. It wouldn't be unlikely to see the rest of the day pass by without a whole lot of market action between here and closing. March corn is up 10 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 58.03 points and NASDAQ is up 11.36 points. LIVE CATTLE A snow storm is anticipated to hit most of feeding country sometime Friday, which will be accompanied by freezing rain and frigid temperatures. Some of Thursday's early trade could have been because feeders knew that roads were going to be slick over the weekend and cattle were going to be stressed throughout the storm. A few bids; mostly clean-up in nature, have popped up at $199 in Nebraska, and $198 in Kansas, but for the most part packers are sitting back, feeling like most of the business is done for the week at this point. Though the board is still reading losses, it's seeming like common ground has been found and the emotion from Wednesday is wearing off. February live cattle are down $0.20 at $125.92, April live cattle are up $0.45 at $126.87 and June live cattle are up $0.05 at $118.90. Boxed beef cutouts are higher: choice up $1.09 ($213.99) and select up $1.98 ($213.45) with a movement of 60 loads (38.90 loads of choice, 5.14 loads of select, 9.82 loads of trim and 6.60 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE Feeder cattle contracts are still trading on the lesser side of steady, but at least Friday's morning trade isn't a complete nose-dive, plunge lower. January feeders are down $0.60 at $144.82, March feeders are down $0.47 at $144.35 and April feeders are down $0.62 at $147.17. Seeing that fat cattle trade is most likely done for the week, leaves little room for the feeder cattle contracts to latch onto some late-week gains and trade higher. LEAN HOGS After Thursday's lower trade, Friday has opened to a mostly steady market, trading just $0.17 to $0.32 lower on most contracts. February lean hogs are up $0.27 at $67.15, April lean hogs are down $0.32 at $73.45 and May lean hogs are down $0.32 at $80.40. It appears the sourness from Wednesday's trade agreement is starting to settle as contracts trade mostly sideways. Throughout different parts of the morning there has been phases of buyer interest as traders look for opportunities to get into the market. The projected lean hog index for 1/16/2020 is up $0.30 at $60.45, and the actual for 1/15/2020 is up $0.62 at $60.15. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.15 with a weighted average of $51.37, ranging from $48.00 to $51.68 on 4,138 head sold and five-day rolling average of $51.07. Pork cutouts total 234.07 loads with 211.58 loads of pork cuts and 22.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout prices: down $2.82 at $72.63. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 01/17 13:54
DTN Closing Grain Comments 01/17 13:54 Corn Rebounds as Export Hints Surface One day after falling 12 cents, March corn jumped 13 3/4 cents, helped by signs of increased export interest for corn. Soybeans and wheat followed corn's lead with March KC wheat sporting a 9 1/2 cent gain.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 01/17 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 01/17/20
**This report will not be released Monday due to the MLK holiday**
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 379 WEEK TO DATE: 21,978
STEERS LIVE FOB
110 123.00-123.00 123.00-123.00 123.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
269 124.00-124.00 124.00-124.00 124.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,272 WEEK TO DATE: 23,317
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
462 198.00-199.00 198.00-199.00 198.78
STEERS DRESSED FOB
210 199.00-199.00 199.00-199.00 199.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
150 199.00-199.00 199.00-199.00 199.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 6,472
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,330 WEEK TO DATE: 19,630
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
634 198.00-199.00 198.00-199.00 198.76
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
477 198.00-199.00 198.00-199.00 198.39
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Just a little cleanup trade reported today at generally
steady money with yesterday's business (Southern live deals were marked at
$123 to $124, mostly $124, fully steady with last week's weighted averages,
while Northern dressed biz was at $197 to $200, mostly $199 roughly $1 lower
than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska).
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $124.00(1466) HIDE&OFFAL: $9.20 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $188.45 $182.51 113,615
BOX BASED $202.17 $200.75 46,025
AVE INDEX $195.31 +0.58 $191.63 +0.58 159,640
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$214.17 +1.27 $212.75 +1.28
61.49 LDS CH CUTS / 9.86 LDS SEL CUTS / 9.91 LDS TRIM / 15.90 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Hr on mod-gd dem & mod offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 01/10 $211.12 -0.33
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $185.57 -0.97
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 32.46 lds / Shrply hr on gd dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 08 lds: Wtd Avg $242.13 / Unevenly steady
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 116(604) WK AGO 120(608) YR AGO 117(601) MIX: THU SH95/CB27
SAT 27(631) WK AGO 32(640) YR AGO 25(626)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 01/04/20 233 5,024
Week Ending: 12/28/19 7 3,847
Change from prev week: +226 +1,177
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/17 16:12
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/17 16:12 Leaving on a Positive Note As the market prepares for a three-day weekend, it's positive to see two out of the three livestock contracts trading higher. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: If there is a take away that the market can learn from this week, it is that it's wise to not bolster the market with sheer hopefulness and anticipation until the fine details are printed and clear. Thankfully the market seems to be coming around after Thursday's beatdown and is trading higher in both the lean hog and live cattle markets. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.43 with a weighted average of $50.79. March corn is up 13 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 50.46 points and NASDAQ is up 31.81 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/20 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/20 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 1/20/20 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAR 570.50 569.38 563.28 557.49 539.56 65.39 64.38 60.83 60 69 81 84 CBTWT MAY 571.25 570.44 565.31 560.11 542.77 64.59 63.92 60.62 57 67 80 84 KC WT MAR 494.25 493.13 489.47 482.14 456.95 63.22 64.05 61.32 47 62 82 86 KC WT MAY 501.50 500.56 497.06 490.06 464.66 62.84 63.78 61.15 46 62 82 86 MN WT MAR 560.00 555.63 553.61 551.96 532.95 64.64 63.65 58.50 49 56 71 73 MN WT MAY 568.50 563.94 562.14 560.75 541.95 65.41 64.14 58.63 47 52 69 71 CORN MAR 389.25 385.31 385.39 386.78 383.00 55.31 54.06 50.66 56 66 63 66 CORN MAY 395.25 391.94 392.17 393.53 389.24 54.52 53.57 50.48 54 65 63 67 CORN JUL 401.00 398.19 398.58 399.82 394.97 53.95 53.33 50.53 54 66 64 69 OATS MAR 311.75 309.00 305.53 297.83 301.83 64.37 60.25 55.88 45 61 82 82 OATS MAY 306.75 304.13 300.75 294.14 298.20 65.05 60.33 55.51 46 60 83 82 BEANS MAR 929.75 931.19 938.64 942.96 926.12 40.39 45.23 48.87 14 16 28 52 BEANS MAY 943.00 944.44 951.81 956.22 939.58 40.13 45.08 49.04 15 16 28 52 BEANS JUL 955.50 956.75 963.92 968.06 951.58 40.34 45.34 49.41 15 16 29 53 S MEAL MAR 300.60 300.83 301.61 302.64 303.04 43.50 45.28 46.44 17 27 26 37 S MEAL MAY 305.20 305.45 306.06 306.70 306.62 44.87 46.44 47.06 18 29 32 44 B OIL MAR 33.35 33.44 34.00 34.39 32.81 39.63 46.29 53.24 14 14 24 48 B OIL MAY 33.67 33.77 34.32 34.69 33.11 39.66 46.39 53.35 14 14 24 49 CATTLE FEB 126.35 126.48 126.61 126.37 125.79 49.89 51.91 55.46 50 47 61 66 CATTLE APR 127.25 127.26 127.36 127.23 126.58 50.81 52.16 55.06 55 59 64 68 FEEDER JAN 145.35 145.52 146.15 145.54 144.00 48.64 51.52 53.37 41 34 56 71 FEEDER MAR 145.00 145.18 145.80 145.06 144.08 48.61 50.99 53.14 40 36 62 74 HOGS FEB 67.68 67.53 67.61 69.05 69.02 44.94 44.71 45.33 65 51 23 20 HOGS APR 74.10 74.46 74.59 75.98 75.68 39.76 41.56 44.28 56 54 24 24 COTTON MAR 71.25 70.79 70.72 69.92 67.46 67.22 67.09 63.29 40 51 81 89 COTTON MAY 72.19 71.81 71.81 71.03 68.56 65.34 66.20 63.64 35 48 80 89 RICE MAR 13.52 13.39 13.28 13.22 12.82 73.07 71.27 66.56 74 71 77 76 RICE MAY 13.58 13.46 13.35 13.32 12.95 74.67 72.77 67.70 85 85 87 84
