US Direct Feeder Pigs 10/14
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/14 12:21
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/14 12:21 Wavering Trade Agreements, But Still Pressing On Although most of the marketplace was somewhat disappointed in the China-U.S. trade dealings, livestock markets have seized higher prices Monday morning. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst General Comments "Good morning, Monday," livestock markets shouted as Monday morning has opened to a surprisingly eager and optimistic livestock complex. Spurred by the excitement generated in the late cash cattle trade, markets have performed well for a Monday morning, especially considering that many Wall Street firms found the trade conversations with China somewhat disappointing. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.06 points and NASDAQ is down 2.47 points. LIVE CATTLE Live cattle markets are posting gains early Monday as markets are still fueled by higher cash cattle prices last week. Last week, cash cattle prices saw a $3.13 jump in prices in the five-area feeding region; and all in all, the cash market has rallied a substantial $12 since the Tyson fire and it looks like pressure will continue early this week. Packers will have to continue to partake in the negotiated market as they need cattle and are keeping processing plants plenty busy. Prices will likely dip down and cool off a bit sometime in November as Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays don't center around beef dishes and are obviously days that the futures market is closed. December live cattle are up $1.22 at $113.37, and all live cattle contracts are showing support of $0.67 to $1.17 gains. Midday boxed beef prices are up: choice up $0.03 ($215.69) and select up $0.05 (188.73). Monday's offering of boxed beef movement totaled 40 loads (19.06 loads of choice cuts, 8.96 loads of select cuts, 5.04 loads of trim and 7.28 loads of ground beef). Formula totals for last week were mixed, higher in Nebraska and lower in Kansas and Texas: Kansas 76,766(down 4,641), Nebraska 60,587(up 6,540), Texas 95,329(down 2,284). Total trade volume was also mixed higher in Nebraska and lower in the South: Kansas 87,523(down 5,784), Nebraska 90,864(up 4,965), Texas 100,913(down 4,244). New showlists appear to also be mixed, slightly higher in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat smaller in Kansas, and lower in Texas. A few early asking prices have been noted in parts of Nebraska at $115 live and $180 dressed. FEEDER CATTLE Countryside feeder cattle markets could be in for a volatile whirlwind this week. First, the sheer amount of snow that accumulated in North Dakota and other parts of the northern region brings great stress to cow/calf producers and their cattle. Even with proper preconditioning shots and vaccinations, calves endure a lot of stress the first initial weeks after being weaned and when hit with a snow storm, sickness is the next thing that managers have on their mind. Secondly, transportation of these newly weaned calves could be an issue as many of the northern raised calves are trucked down the Corn Belt, and even getting calves shipped to local sale barns can be challenging when dealing with slick, icy roads, or mud. Nevertheless, feeder cattle markets are expecting big runs this week, and health, quality and pre-weaning shots will short the calves hard this week on price. Despite the nasty weather and potential shipping complications, the board is in support for higher cattle markets early this week. Spot October live cattle futures are up $1.30 at $145.40 and November feeder cattle are up $1.65 at $145.90. LEAN HOGS Friday's chatter surrounding the Chinese trade agreement left the market hopeful but as more time has passed, more questions seem to be unanswered. We know that some progress has been made, but there is still plenty of time for things to go astray, which is exactly what hog producers fear with their growing numbers and vast supply of market-ready hogs. Thankfully, the fact remains than China and surrounding countries will need a large supply of pork imported to offset the loss of their herds. United States hog producers pray that those imports can be largely from them. December lean hogs are down $0.65 at $68.97 but most of the lean hog market is finding moderate support in other contracts. The projected lean hog index for 10/11/19 is up $0.93 at $62.11, and the actual lean hog index for 10/10/19 came to $61.18 up $0.53. Prices are unchanged on the National Direct Morning Hog Report with a weighted average price of $56.61 ranging from $50.00 to $60.00 on 8,016 head sold, and a five-day rolling average of $54.25. Pork cutouts totaled 119.97 loads with 103.81 loads of pork cuts and 16.17 loads of trim. Pork cutouts values are $0.91 higher at $78.43. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/14 14:03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 10/14 14:03 Soybeans, Wheat Finish Higher; Corn Stays Quiet November soybeans and all three wheats finished higher Monday after crops were afflicted by winter conditions in the northwestern U.S. Plains over the weekend. December corn was unchanged on the day, a curious response to a weekend where crop loss took place.
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/14 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 10/14 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 10/14/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 511.00 503.06 496.67 491.68 481.33 69.75 64.99 56.42 71 68 83 77 CBTWT MAR 516.75 509.38 503.53 498.42 487.78 69.13 64.72 56.14 71 69 84 79 KC WT DEC 425.75 415.44 409.97 409.14 404.33 67.07 61.85 52.40 72 64 71 60 KC WT MAR 437.75 428.13 423.56 422.57 418.68 66.36 61.06 51.45 71 63 71 61 MN WT DEC 552.00 544.25 539.33 539.32 520.47 67.16 64.23 57.47 73 69 73 68 MN WT MAR 566.25 558.19 553.28 552.69 534.45 68.05 65.01 57.93 75 71 76 70 CORN DEC 397.75 392.50 390.44 383.57 374.51 63.11 60.60 53.39 64 59 85 86 CORN MAR 407.50 403.06 401.69 394.93 386.47 62.10 59.87 53.03 63 58 86 86 CORN MAY 412.50 408.38 406.94 401.07 393.83 61.83 59.50 52.70 63 58 85 86 OATS DEC 297.75 289.31 286.56 280.83 275.24 77.94 71.62 62.41 74 52 75 69 OATS MAR 294.75 288.13 286.92 282.82 277.92 74.70 68.80 60.52 61 33 63 61 BEANS NOV 940.50 930.94 922.36 908.33 887.68 78.56 71.45 60.55 78 72 90 90 BEANS JAN 955.00 945.25 936.64 922.31 901.47 79.68 72.45 61.12 80 73 90 90 BEANS MAR 965.00 956.31 947.61 933.50 913.68 81.03 73.37 61.55 80 74 90 91 S MEAL OCT 306.00 305.60 302.13 298.13 295.80 64.37 60.69 53.94 76 77 87 77 S MEAL DEC 310.90 309.80 306.71 302.66 299.79 65.94 61.78 54.56 73 74 84 76 B OIL OCT 29.90 29.77 29.72 29.41 29.10 62.64 59.96 56.06 45 50 71 74 B OIL DEC 30.00 29.87 29.81 29.53 29.27 62.68 59.72 55.62 57 56 67 70 CATTLE OCT 110.63 109.32 108.21 105.40 101.50 87.88 78.43 62.93 92 90 97 97 CATTLE DEC 113.45 112.05 111.39 109.81 106.38 80.91 72.46 59.59 83 71 93 95 FEEDER OCT 145.55 144.61 143.17 142.38 136.83 73.61 68.68 58.89 75 74 88 85 FEEDER NOV 146.08 144.68 142.89 141.55 136.20 77.20 71.37 60.32 78 73 89 87 HOGS OCT 63.08 62.80 62.27 62.62 63.39 52.01 49.52 46.51 90 83 39 31 HOGS DEC 69.13 69.17 68.09 68.81 65.87 53.31 52.95 50.90 78 77 62 59 COTTON DEC 62.22 62.40 61.93 61.28 60.18 55.64 55.77 51.34 51 56 60 62 COTTON MAR 63.18 63.13 62.65 62.00 60.88 58.21 57.70 52.12 54 57 64 68 RICE NOV 11.99 12.02 11.85 11.97 11.86 53.25 52.09 52.21 74 78 47 28 RICE JAN 12.29 12.31 12.13 12.21 12.07 56.55 54.88 54.08 76 80 56 33
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/14 16:06
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 10/14 16:06 Strong Monday Livestock Close Although other markets are apprehensions about the week and where the chips may fall, livestock markets have welcomed the week and captured early gains. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It's a legitimate concern to be worried about where exactly the trade arrangements sit with China and how much longer things are going to take before a signed, sealed and delivered agreement is reached, but despite outside market influence, livestock sectors surge on. Hog prices are up on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.89 with a weighted average of $57.50. December corn is steady and December soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 29.23 points and NASDAQ is down 8.39 points.
DTN Early Word Grains 10/15 05:56
DTN Early Word Grains 10/15 05:56 Grain Setback on Lack of Trade Details December corn is down 1 cent per bushel, November soybeans are down 1/4 cent, and December K.C. wheat is down 2 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn is down 1 cent per bushel, November soybeans are down 1/4 cent, and December K.C. wheat is down 2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Global equity markets are mostly higher overnight with investors shifting focus from U.S.-China trade to 'Brexit,' even if for the moment. The EU's chief negotiator said a new withdrawal deal between the U.K. and EU is still possible this week, although time is running thin. Data out overnight included Chinese inflation statistics which showed the strongest inflation in six years as the pork shortage continues to drive up the cost of living. The nearly 70% rise in Chinese pork prices from a year earlier is an astounding figure, and the acceleration from the last few months proves the People's Republic of China still does not have a handle on African Swine Fever. Grain markets are weaker across the board, easing back from the highs made Monday which included several multi-month highs. Traders are anxiously awaiting producers return to the fields and additional harvest activity so a better assessment on yields can be made. For those in the Northern Plains, progress will be nil the rest of this week as they wait on snow to melt from the fields. Ag prices will remain sensitive to any details about the U.S.-China trade deal, although without confirmation from the USDA or hard details from financial media, our markets could begin discounting the odds of the deal happening in 2019. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Monday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 29.23 at 26,787.36 and the S&P 500 down 4.12 at 2,970.27 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.733%. Early Tuesday, the December DJIA futures are up 93 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 408.34 (1.87%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 16.84 points (-0.56%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 down 5.82 points (-0.08%), Germany's DAX up 54.12 points (0.43%) and France's CAC 40 up 26.44 points (0.47%). The December Euro is down 0.002 at 1.110 and the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.030 at 98.200. The December 30-Year T-Bond is up 15/32nds, while December gold is up $1.70 at $1,499.30 and November crude oil is down $1.13 at $52.46. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.18% while soybean meal was up 0.5%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/15 06:21
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 10/15 06:21 Optimism Sparks Renewed Cattle Buying Active support moving into the cattle complex during early week trade helped to solidify previous week's gains. This is not only expected to spark additional futures interest but stimulate feedlot expectations when it comes to cash cattle trade. By Rick Kment DTN Livestock Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $138.73 +0.75* Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 82.71 +0.42** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cash cattle trade is expected to remain quiet early Tuesday with limited packer interest likely until Wednesday or later. A few asking prices developed late Monday in Nebraska at $115 live and $180 per cwt dressed, but cattle still need to be priced through the South. It is likely that cash cattle trade will be delayed until the end of the week, although the focus on futures gains is whetting the appetite and creating expectations of another strong rally through the end of the week. Futures trade is expected to remain generally higher early Tuesday morning following the momentum shift higher the last couple of weeks and strong triple-digit gains able to hold Monday. December futures closed at $133.45 per cwt Monday afternoon, indicating a generally unchecked rally of $14 per cwt since hitting September lows. A move above $114.30 per cwt would break through July resistance levels, sparking additional technical support through the remainder of October. Although supply tightness is expected during early 2020, the concern that this pace of upward movement in the market may be limited is expected to curb upward market support over the next couple of weeks. Even though firm support is expected the next few months, the short term moves in the market are not likely to follow the aggressive upward trend over the last week. Tuesday slaughter runs are expected at 117,000 head.
DTN Cattle Prices/Trends 10/15 08:00
DTN CATTLE PRICES/TRENDS 10/15 08:00
HEAD SOLD LIVE STEERS DRESSED LIVE HEIFERS DRESSED
KANSAS . . . . .
NEBRASKA . . . . .
TEXAS . . . . .
COLORADO . . . . .
IOWA . . . . .
*PRIVATE SOURCES
DTN COMMENTS: The country is slow to start this morning with bids remaining
very scarce. A few early asking prices have been noted in parts of Nebraska
around $115 live and $180 dressed. Significant trade volume will likely be
delayed until the second half of the week. Beef cutouts are expected to be
higher with light to moderate box movement.
NOTE: Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at
1-800-369-7675, ext. 3678. All sales will be listed anonymously and
organized by state. All live sales are FOB and set for 1-9 day delivery.
General trends and summaries from this data will also be posted on the Daily
Sales Reported to DTN page.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/15 11:12
DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/15 11:12 Grains Trending Lower at Midday Quiet mostly lower trade at midday. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 260. The dollar index is 20 lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs sharply higher. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $12.00. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with harvest pressure and overbought conditions encouraging a pull back at midday. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress through the end of the week before wetter weather returns to the east. The ethanol margins have improved to start the week with ethanol futures lower this morning with idled plants still needing a return to harvest basis to restart. Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn planting is running behind normal. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 470,612 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show slightly lower conditions with maturity still well behind normal. On the December contract support is at the 10-day at $3.91, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 4.03. SOYBEANS Soybeans are narrowly mixed with trade still chopping around the upper end of the range with overbought conditions and harvest pressure battling improved nearby demand. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 60 to 70 points higher. Crush margins remain good. Economically, U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but remains at a steep currency disadvantage to South America with harvest needed to boost competitiveness. Bean basis is should see pressure as combines roll through midweek before rains return. South America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind. Weekly crop progress is expected show slightly lower conditions and maturity still well behind normal, with export inspections softer at 954,881 metric tons, along with 142,579 metric tons. On the November chart support is the 200-day at $9.10 with the upper Bollinger band at 9.45, and the spike high at 9.45 3/4 as resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade giving back the Monday gains with little fresh news. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 85 cents with choppy action continuing with mostly steady to slightly wider. Remaining spring wheat harvest will likely be stopped with the incoming cold front. The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 28 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea origin with weekly inspections range bound at 462,651 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show winter wheat planting and emergence inline with average. The December Kansas City chart support is the $4.07-4.11 area where the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger Band at 4.22 as resistance, then the 4.27 3/4 recent high. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
