DTN Early Word Grains 09/23 05:50
DTN Early Word Grains 09/23 05:50 Commodity Prices Nearly All Lower Early Friday December corn was down 8 cents, November soybeans were down 9 cents and December KC wheat was down 11 cents. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst EARLY GLOBEX PRICES: December corn was down 8 cents, November soybeans were down 9 cents and December KC wheat was down 11 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: Early Friday, stock futures in the U.S., Europe and Asia are all trading lower, while the December U.S. Dollar Index climbs to new heights, continuing to play off the Federal Reserve's strong commitment to higher interest rates in the effort to squelch inflation. According to the Wall Street Journal, Wednesday's U.S. rate hike was followed by more rate increases from central banks in the U.K., Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Africa. Later Friday, USDA will release its cattle on-feed report for September 1. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 107.10 at 30,076.68 and the S&P 500 down 31.94 at 3,757.99 as the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 3.71%, its highest yield in 11 years. Early Friday, December Dow Jones futures are trading down 265 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 index down 0.58% and China's Shanghai Composite Index down 0.66%. European markets are lower with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading down 0.78%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading down 0.93% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading down 0.81%. The December euro is down $0.0075 at $.9817. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.70 at 111.80. The December 30-year T-bond is up 5/32nds, while December gold is down $11.10 at $1,670.0 and November crude oil is down $1.72 at $81.77. On China's Dalian exchange, January corn was down 0.4%, November soybeans were up 0.2%, January soybean meal was down 0.2% and January soybean oil was down 0.9%. November Malaysian palm oil is trading down 1.6%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/23 06:14
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/23 06:14 Choppy Trade Expected Ahead of Report Live cattle futures retreated even though cash traded higher. The higher trade was factored in with traders looking ahead to the Cattle on Feed report. Hogs showed further weakness as packers were unwilling to pay up for hogs in the attempt to improve margins.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/23 11:08
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/23 11:08 Grains Lower at Midday Corn trade is 9 to 11 cents lower; beans are 24 to 26 cents lower and wheat is 18 to 21 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is sharply lower with the Dow down 470 points. The dollar index is 135 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are sharply weaker with crude down 4.30. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are sharply lower with gold $28 lower. CORN: Corn trade is 9 to 11 cents lower at midday with risk off trade as we head towards the weekend with expanding harvest and negative outside markets bringing pressure to start; trade worked a little off the early lows. Short-term forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier with higher-than-normal temperatures again into the weekend. The export wire was quiet after yesterday's action. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with lower driving demand and corn values keeping pressure on for now, with natural gas fading a little to add support. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest footing, and how aggressively the West will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest. Some areas are starting to show more strength. On the December chart, trade remains below the Upper Bollinger band at $7 as the next level up, with the 20-day at $6.78, which we are testing at midday. SOYBEANS: Soybean trade is 24 to 26 cents lower at midday with trade falling back into the lower end of the recent range with risk off action and harvest pressure continuing. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 225 to 235 points lower. South America is moving towards planting preparation with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window with the stronger dollar potentially pushing that further out and Brazil seeing better rain than Argentina to start. Basis will continue to shift towards harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into October. The daily wire remained quiet again today. On the November soybean chart, trade has the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.01 as resistance, and the 20-day at $14.40 which we are below at midday. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 21 to 25 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from the recent highs with the risk off action, and stronger dollar offsetting political and weather concerns for now. Spring wheat harvest should be effectively wrapped up, with winter wheat planting expanding with needed rains in some of the growing areas. The dollar is at fresh highs after the guidance remains for increasing rates with MATIF prices snapping back to the upper end of the range on the political concerns before fading in the risk off trade. The Kansas City December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.20, and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.84 as resistance. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/23 11:39
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/23 11:39 Lower Tones Settle into the Livestock Complex With a depressed tone settling into all of the livestock contracts as the market heads into the day's afternoon, a lower close could be expected for the contracts. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: With a depressed tone settling into all of the livestock contracts as the market heads into the day's afternoon, a lower close could be expected for the contracts. LIVE CATTLE: Friday's market continues to trade with a doggish and skeptical tone as the market anxiously awaits Friday's Cattle on Feed Report. Traders and cattlemen alike would love to believe analysts' estimates for the report but given that they've gotten their hopes up in months past believing that placements will be lower only to see on Friday afternoon that they're reported higher has everyone leery. Regardless of how the on-feed and placement data fairs, the market is at least going to be able to appreciate the marketing portion of the report as analysts believe marketings could be as much as 6.5% higher than a year ago. October live cattle are down $0.55 at $144.30, December live cattle are down $0.70 at $148.67 and February live cattle are down $0.87 at $152.90. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any bids renewed at this time and it's looking like the vast majority of the week's business is done. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for $143 which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $228 which is also $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average. Friday's Imported Meat report shares that for the week fresh beef imports totaled 23,568 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the biggest importers. Year-to-date fresh beef imports total 867,310 metric tons, which is 8% greater than when compared to a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week total 2,528 metric tons with Brazil contributing 67% of that shipment. Year-to-date processed beef imports total 69,966 metric tons which is 21% greater than when compared to a year ago. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.11 ($248.29) and select down $1.52 ($220.59) with a movement of 64 loads (41.73 loads of choice, 9.51 loads of select, 5.37 loads of trim and 7.47 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The feeder cattle market continues to sell out despite the corn complex trading as much as $0.12 to $0.13 lower in its nearby contracts. September feeders are down $0.17 at $178.02, October feeders are down $0.02 at $177.95 and November feeders are down $0.20 at $177.90. The market would like to rest its hat on the wins the fat cattle market saw earlier this week, but until the market can see exactly how Friday's Cattle on Feed report pans out, all are hesitant. However, if the report can indeed display what analyst's projected, then the market sits in a fine position to rally as early as next week. LEAN HOGS: With the rest of the livestock complex taking a hesitant stance in Friday's market, the lean hog market has opted to follow suit even though it saw strong export sales on Thursday and pork cutout values closed $3.53 higher Thursday afternoon. October lean hogs are down $1.22 at $92.90, December lean hogs are down $2.45 at $83.22 and February lean hogs are down $2.30 at $87.45. It's likely that the market keeps with this lower trend through closing, but it won't likely pressure the market support plane of $82.25. The projected lean hog index for 9/22/2022 is down $0.42 at $97.59, and the actual index for 9/21/2022 is up $0.05 at $98.01. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $7.71 with a weighted average of $86.21, ranging from $84.00 to $105.00 on 3,241 head and a five-day rolling average of $93.03. Pork cutouts total 210.13 loads with 197.19 loads of pork cuts and 12.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.30, $101.58. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/23 14:11
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/23 14:11 Friday's Commodity Board Nearly All Red Nearly the entire commodity board was showing lower prices Friday afternoon, a day dominated by investor-selling after several central banks around the world raised interest rates. November contracts of feeder cattle and orange juice with a tropical storm headed toward Florida. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: December corn closed down 11 1/2 cents and July corn was down 12 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 31 1/4 cents and July soybeans were down 30 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 29 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 30 1/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 28 1/2 cents. The December U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 1.69 at 112.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 710.99 points at 29,365.69. December gold is down $29.00 at $1,652.10, December silver is down $0.78 at $18.84 and December copper is down $0.1265. November crude oil is down $4.61 at $78.88, November heating oil is down $0.1632, November RBOB gasoline is down $0.1205 and November natural gas is down $0.283.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 09/23 15:45
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 09/23/22
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 10,350
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,619 WEEK TO DATE: 28,348
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
518 228.00-228.50 228.00-228.50 228.35
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 516 WEEK TO DATE: 12,422
STEERS LIVE FOB
268 143.00-143.00 143.00-143.00 143.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
110 143.00-143.00 143.00-143.00 143.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NO COMP WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 5,562 WEEK TO DATE: 41,323
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Just a little cleanup was reported here and there today.
This week Southern live business was marked at mostly $143, $1 higher than
last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly
$228, also $1 higher than last week's weighted average, basis Nebraska.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $144.50(1470) HIDE&OFFAL: $14.81 +0.19
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) HEAD
SUPPLY (Live) $212.49 $189.30 101,642
DEMAND (Box) $236.63 $207.31 57,374
INDEX VALUE $224.56 +0.54 $198.30 -0.98 159,016
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$248.63 +0.23 $219.31 -2.80
50.65 LDS CH CUTS / 28.17 LDS SEL CUTS / 8.46 LDS TRIM / 12.27 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $29.32 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 100
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 09/16 $256.83 -3.23
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $210.06 -0.85
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 45.65 lds / Unevenly stdy on lt dem & offers
90% TRIM: 08 lds: Wtd Avg: $262.65 / Weak to lower
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 125(634) WK AGO 118(622) YR AGO 111(588) MIX: THU SH98/CB29
SAT 33(667) WK AGO 45(667) YR AGO 55(643)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 09/10/22 1,622 7,830
Week Ending: 09/03/22 2,333 7,962
Change from prev week: -711 -132
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/23 15:55
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/23 15:55 Traders Run From Market Ahead of Friday's Close The markets closed with panic and uncertainty laced throughout their innermost core as higher interest rates concern everyone involved. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Friday's market lent the livestock complex no favors as the contracts dived lower upon the onset of higher interest rates which created uncertainly throughout the entire marketplace. The cattle complex had even more anxiety heading into the afternoon as it awaited Friday's Cattle on Feed Report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $7.69 with a weighted average of $86.34 on 3,395 head. December corn is down 11 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 486.27 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/23 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/23 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 9/23/22 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 880.50 897.19 872.97 851.79 822.38 56.00 55.65 51.53 77 78 80 80 CBTWT MAR 893.75 909.56 887.19 866.54 838.09 55.94 55.60 51.61 76 78 80 80 KC WT DEC 950.50 965.00 945.78 922.26 889.90 56.61 56.30 51.85 76 78 81 82 KC WT MAR 947.25 961.44 943.78 921.63 891.61 56.05 55.79 51.55 77 78 81 82 MN WT DEC 949.25 962.63 945.06 926.33 915.78 55.55 54.53 49.61 77 80 81 82 MN WT MAR 954.75 967.00 951.39 935.64 926.73 54.70 53.75 49.20 78 81 81 81 CORN DEC 676.75 685.63 683.39 678.81 643.64 50.45 54.21 53.77 51 61 75 78 CORN MAR 681.75 690.50 688.42 683.89 649.82 50.32 54.14 53.78 50 61 76 79 CORN MAY 682.25 691.06 688.97 684.68 651.99 50.06 53.92 53.67 52 63 77 80 OATS DEC 395.00 410.75 404.00 395.90 406.89 44.78 45.55 43.53 67 81 76 67 OATS MAR 399.75 414.00 407.64 399.79 408.61 45.54 46.25 44.11 70 85 79 70 BEANS NOV1425.751455.691457.531436.491423.23 43.96 47.70 49.37 31 47 61 63 BEANS JAN1431.751461.631463.581442.001429.37 43.92 47.71 49.43 30 47 63 65 BEANS MAR1434.501463.381464.611443.611430.16 44.17 47.96 49.80 32 50 65 67 S MEAL OCT 439.90 447.83 439.12 429.92 420.67 55.01 55.56 54.66 58 74 78 77 S MEAL DEC 423.30 432.60 428.48 422.13 415.30 49.03 51.22 52.08 47 65 72 70 B OIL OCT 67.00 68.21 68.04 67.27 65.60 47.92 50.10 50.77 53 62 74 73 B OIL DEC 63.68 65.26 65.34 65.09 64.48 43.35 46.09 48.11 43 53 59 61 CATTLE OCT 144.25 145.32 145.25 144.78 144.15 43.44 48.00 51.43 22 48 71 78 CATTLE DEC 148.55 149.93 150.38 150.19 149.88 34.90 41.49 48.01 13 28 48 66 FEEDER SEP 178.13 178.33 179.02 180.88 182.30 32.90 38.81 46.13 11 17 8 11 FEEDER OCT 178.35 178.89 180.22 182.29 184.24 32.78 37.26 44.27 14 21 14 19 HOGS OCT 92.63 94.29 95.23 93.53 95.05 41.63 44.98 47.78 4 25 67 77 HOGS DEC 82.80 85.78 86.43 84.97 86.18 35.02 39.95 44.72 8 37 64 77 COTTON OCT 94.49 95.53 99.95 105.02 108.03 27.59 32.16 39.44 30 20 5 3 COTTON DEC 92.54 94.83 98.11 101.69 103.58 28.81 33.94 41.32 29 24 8 7 RICE NOV 17.38 17.53 17.66 17.59 17.43 40.15 45.66 50.43 13 20 63 76 RICE JAN 17.67 17.80 17.93 17.84 17.63 41.79 47.18 51.69 5 11 68 80
