DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/27 10:48
DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/27 10:48
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 5 to 6 cents higher and wheat is 2
to 11 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 20. The dollar index is 20
points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude
down $0.20. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with
gold down $23.
CORN:
Corn trade is 3 to 5 cents higher with light buying to close the week, along
with 302,160 metric tons sold to Mexico adding support as the December contract
heads toward delivery. Ethanol margins are seeing pressure from firmer corn
values and a softer energy complex. Basis remains generally strong. Export
sales were strong at 1.67 million metric tons. On the December contract,
support is the 20-day at $4.13 with the lower Bollinger band at $3.94 as the
next level down with the fresh high scored at $4.29 3/4 scored Monday and the
upper Bollinger band at $4.31 above that.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans trade is 5 to 6 cents higher with mixed weather and expected demand
keeping action range bound into the weekend. Meal is mixed, and oil is 55 to 65
points higher. The daily wire has remained quiet for soybeans, as well, with
concerns about China crush margins and cancellations rumored but unconfirmed.
South America has some dry pockets remaining with rains expected to work into
the south while the north dries out short term. Basis remains strong as we
continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export
bushels with freight issues remaining in play. Weekly export sales were a
marketing-year low at 768,100 metric tons of beans, with meal at 138,100 and
oil at 26,300 metric tons. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high
of $12 scored Monday, with the upper Bollinger band at $12.22. Support is the
20-day at $11.32.
WHEAT:
Wheat trade is 2 to 11 cents higher with a marketing-year high for export
bookings helping trade bounce back from Wednesday's selling with spread action
very mixed. The dollar remains at the lower end of the range. World export
tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin, for the most part, with little
change in overall conditions there. The western Plains remaining dry short term
as we head toward dormancy after some midweek snows. KC is at a 36-cent
discount to Chicago with spreads collapsing into delivery after testing the
upper end of the range. Minneapolis is at -43. Weekly export sales were strong
at a marketing-year high of 795,700 metric tons. KC December chart resistance
is the 20-day at $5.52, which we are just above at midday, and support is the
lower Bollinger band at $5.40.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
**
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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/27 12:05
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/27 12:05 Livestock Contracts Trade Mixed Following Thanksgiving Livestock contracts continue to trade in a lackadaisical fashion on Friday as a lot of traders are soaking up a long weekend. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Heading into the afternoon, the livestock contracts are trading in a slow, methodical post-Thanksgiving fashion. With the markets closing early Friday afternoon and a lot of traders already checked out for the week for a long weekend, Friday's trade throughout the futures market and in the cash cattle market has developed in an unhurried cadence. March corn is up 5 cents per bushel, and January soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 26.25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 93.46 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle market couldn't pick up where it left off Thursday and rally into Friday's trade. December live cattle are down $0.60 at $110.77, February live cattle are down $0.82 at $113.32 and April live cattle are down $0.45 at $117.02. Friday's unsupported trade really stems from the shortened holiday week. The cash cattle market is still mostly quiet with a few bids being renewed in Nebraska at $111 and a few cattle sold Friday morning in Texas for $112. Some feedlots in eastern Nebraska have upped asking prices to $175 as they know that packers need cattle and are in position to wait until the market pays up. Beef net sales of 15,500 metric tons (mt) were reported for 2020 -- a marketing-year low -- up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for China (2,000 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Japan (1,800 mt, including decreases of 2,700 mt) and Kuwait (100 mt). Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.21 ($243.85) and select up $0.04 ($220.94) with a movement of 27 loads (11.58 loads of choice, 2.97 loads of select, 4.80 loads of trim and 7.16 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: While live cattle contracts are trading lower, the feeder cattle market is hoping to round out the week with the bullish attitude that's been supported since Monday. January feeders are up $0.15 at $140.32, March feeders are up $0.02 at $139.30 and April feeders are up $0.07 at $140.47. The corn market is seeing some support that has elevated nearby contracts to $0.03 to $0.04 higher; thus far, the corn market's gain hasn't derailed the feeder cattle contracts. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog market isn't being supported following the big Thanksgiving holiday. December lean hogs are down $0.15 at $66.02, February lean hogs are down $0.72 at $66.95 and April lean hogs are down $0.75 at $70. Following Thursday's stronger close, the market was hopeful to keep scaling higher and to eventually push out of the market's recent sideways trade. But based on Friday's trade thus far, the hog market isn't looking prime to finding midafternoon support before closing. Pork net sales of 18,800 mt reported for 2020 were down 35% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three primary increases were for Mexico (9,400 mt, including decreases of 600 mt), Japan (3,900 mt, including decreases of 200 mt) and China (2,500 mt, including decreases of 600 mt). The projected lean hog index for 11/24/2020 is down $0.32 at $67.38, and the actual index for 11/23/2020 is down $0.13 at $67.70. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.41 with a weighted average of $57.48, ranging from $57 to $58.50 on 3,840 head and a five-day rolling average of $57.94. Pork cutouts total 129.64 loads with 116.86 loads of pork cuts and 12.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.45, $78.80. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com ** Editor's Note: See DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's complete 2021 market outlook live by attending the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 7-9. This year's event is virtual, and as a DTN subscriber you can attend for FREE. Our premier farmer and rancher event features markets updates from ShayLe, DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman and a weather outlook by Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. Other speakers include: U.S. Ambassador Kip Tom; Ken Eriksen and Paul Hughes of IHS Markit; Microsoft Chief Scientist Ranveer Chandra; personal development speakers David Horsager and Jon Gordon; farmers Reid and Heather Thompson; farm blogger Meredith Bernard, and many more. You can take part, and ask live questions, all from the comfort of your home, shop or tractor cab. 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DTN Closing Grain Comments 11/27 12:50
DTN Closing Grain Comments 11/27 12:50 Grains Finish Week Higher March contracts of corn and all three wheats plus January contracts of soybeans, meal and soybean oil all closed higher in light volume trading the day after Thanksgiving. March KC wheat posted the largest percentage gain, finishing up 14 3/4 cents after a suspicious, 20 1/4 cent drop on Wednesday.
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 11/27 15:44
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 11/27 15:44 Livestock Contracts Fade Lower Into the Weekend Friday slowly rolled to a close and, although the contracts all closed lower, substantial gains were secured earlier in the week. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a good week for the livestock contracts as steady gains were achieved early in the week and Friday's weaker close didn't deteriorate too much of the market's position. Hog prices were lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average of $56.73 on 5,444 head. March corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.90 points and NASDAQ is up 111.45 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 11/27 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 11/27 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 11/27/20 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 596.50 598.69 596.75 598.99 598.84 48.29 49.12 52.37 39 51 36 32 CBTWT MAR 606.00 606.13 604.11 605.89 603.22 50.54 51.01 53.53 42 50 38 33 KC WT DEC 561.50 554.38 553.86 554.67 543.09 56.32 56.02 57.23 57 50 42 41 KC WT MAR 565.25 561.75 561.97 562.43 551.06 53.39 54.04 56.20 48 48 45 46 MN WT DEC 550.75 546.88 547.92 551.88 551.21 50.30 49.68 50.99 50 37 16 12 MN WT MAR 570.00 565.56 565.47 568.14 564.99 53.74 52.63 52.87 62 46 21 17 CORN DEC 425.50 424.44 422.86 416.36 403.19 61.49 61.81 62.43 54 61 85 85 CORN MAR 433.75 431.75 429.33 423.38 409.53 64.44 64.16 63.78 64 66 88 84 CORN MAY 436.75 434.81 432.25 426.68 412.81 64.31 64.24 63.86 65 68 89 85 OATS DEC 288.50 287.25 292.67 296.61 294.19 36.83 41.86 48.84 25 20 16 22 OATS MAR 299.50 301.44 306.89 305.64 298.13 37.57 45.50 52.82 23 25 49 69 BEANS JAN1191.751189.631179.561148.571088.05 80.15 78.07 73.73 67 71 92 91 BEANS MAR1192.751191.061179.861147.251080.75 81.98 80.29 75.79 72 76 93 93 BEANS MAY1191.001189.501177.811144.681077.44 82.13 80.98 76.98 73 77 94 94 S MEAL DEC 398.50 397.15 395.22 390.99 374.64 67.84 66.56 65.85 62 58 82 79 S MEAL JAN 396.30 395.53 393.86 389.11 371.52 69.00 68.20 67.27 61 57 83 81 B OIL DEC 38.70 38.37 38.26 37.01 34.74 74.27 71.89 66.29 43 48 86 90 B OIL JAN 38.43 38.09 38.00 36.81 34.64 73.46 71.39 65.98 42 46 85 89 CATTLE DEC 110.63 110.79 110.21 110.15 109.46 54.40 53.89 52.22 87 77 72 70 CATTLE FEB 113.25 113.57 112.69 112.85 112.30 53.90 53.31 51.59 84 78 71 67 FEEDER JAN 139.83 139.11 137.95 137.84 135.03 60.99 58.87 54.44 87 74 75 72 FEEDER MAR 139.00 138.42 137.42 137.24 134.50 60.74 58.67 54.30 88 75 76 72 HOGS DEC 65.88 65.57 65.18 65.38 65.86 53.45 52.04 53.86 78 63 36 24 HOGS FEB 67.25 67.20 65.83 66.24 67.62 54.87 52.48 51.93 79 78 65 43 COTTON DEC 71.68 71.54 70.52 70.00 69.19 61.23 59.63 59.05 61 69 72 55 COTTON MAR 73.24 73.10 72.41 71.73 70.34 61.67 61.04 60.91 50 63 80 75 RICE JAN 12.68 12.49 12.44 12.40 12.51 68.94 61.75 55.49 83 82 72 57 RICE MAR 12.84 12.64 12.61 12.58 12.67 68.26 61.74 55.83 79 75 73 60
US Direct Feeder Pigs 11/27
DTN Early Word Grains 11/30 05:57
DTN Early Word Grains 11/30 05:57 Grains Mixed to Close Out November March corn is up 2 cents per bushel, January soybeans are down 5 3/4 cents, and March KC wheat is down 5 cents. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: March corn is up 2 cents per bushel, January soybeans are down 5 3/4 cents, and March KC wheat is down 5 cents. CME Globex Recap: Mixed to weaker equity trade overnight with U.S. futures suggesting a lower open Monday morning. The past two Monday's have witnessed positive vaccine news boost equity trade early in the week, although we doubt the market will go three for three. That said, equity markets are on an impressive run with the month of November likely to feature several records for a monthly gain. Energy markets are softer overnight with crude and products down near 2.0%. The U.S. Dollar Index is breaking to fresh 2 1/2-year lows, which should support the overall commodity sector. Grains are mixed overnight with corn hanging on to gains while the soy complex and wheat trade weaker. South American forecasts and weekly demand from China should remain the focus this week as the slower pace of trade from Thanksgiving to Christmas sets in. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 37.90 at 29,910.37 and the S&P 500 up 8.70 at 3,629.65 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 0.842%. Early Monday, the December DJIA futures are down 161 points. Asian markets are lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 211.09 (-0.79%) and China's Shanghai Composite down 16.55 points (-0.49%). European markets are mixed with London's FTSE 100 up 13.86 points (0.22%), Germany's DAX up 25.03 points (0.19%) and France's CAC 40 down 13.26 points (-0.24%). The December Euro is up 0.003 at 1.200 and the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.161 at 91.640. The December 30-Year T-Bond is up 2/32nds, while December gold is down $13.60 at $1,768.30 and January crude oil is down $0.82 at $44.71. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.19% while soybean meal was up 0.06% and corn was up 0.74%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 11/30 06:33
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 11/30 06:33 Livestock Trade Attempts to End November Strong Following a volatile but lightly traded Thanksgiving holiday week, traders are now focused on end-of-the-month positioning as trade returns to normal Monday. Outside market moves will continue to be a major focus at traders return from holiday schedules.
DTN Cattle Prices/Trends 11/30 07:55
DTN CATTLE PRICES/TRENDS 11/30 07:55 WEEKLY TOTALS REPORTED TO DTN FOR THE WEEK OF: 11/23-11/27 STATE HEAD SOLD LIVE PR RANGE DRESSED PR RANGE KS 2,100 110.00-111.00 . NE 2,500 111.00 172.00-174.00 TX 700 111.00 . CO . . . IA 700 110.00 172.00-174.00 LAST WEEK'S ROUND UP: Business took place mostly on Wednesday with a little cleanup on Friday last week. Southern live deals had a full range of $110 to mostly $111, generally $1 higher than the prior week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals ranged from $170 to mostly $174, generally $2 higher than the previous week's weighted average basis Nebraska. According to Wednesday's Mandatory summary reports weekly accumulated average price totals are as follows (the prior week's weighted averages are listed in parentheses): KS $110.98($109.93); NE $173.36($171.87); TX $110.96($110.02); IA $173.36($171.46); CO Not available due to confidentiality. Friday's slaughter was estimated at 115,000 head, even with the prior week, but 2,000 head above a year ago. Saturday's kill was estimated at 88,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 564,000 head, 101,000 head less than the previous non- holiday week, but 9,000 head more than 2019. DTN MORNING COMMENTS: The country is typically quiet this Monday morning with both buyers and sellers busy taking inventory. Bids and asking prices have yet to be established. Beef cutouts are expected to be mixed with generally light box movement. For the week ending November 21, 2020, Imported Beef Passed for Entry in the U.S. totaled 37,488, 93.84% of the previous week and 95.66% of the 4-week average. NOTE: The price and volume information listed on this page is supplied by DTN subscribers in the interest of general cash market awareness. All cattle feeding subscribers are encouraged to report sales in a timely fashion in order to compensate for the systematic delays of mandatory reporting. While all transactions will be posted on an anonymous basis, callers are required to identify themselves and the location of the actual sales. DTN believes this data to be accurate but cannot guarantee its specific reliability or whether it fairly represents the larger cash market. Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at 1-800-369-7675, ext. 3678. All sales will be listed anonymously and organized by state. General trends and summaries from this data will also be posted on the Daily Sales Reported to DTN page.
