US Direct Feeder Pigs 08/19
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 08/23 06:14
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 08/23 06:14 Cattle Trade Looking Toward Cash Trade The firm undertone in live cattle trade is developing through the week, and could help to solidify additional gains Friday. Lean hog futures continue to remain weak, fueled by renewed concerns of additional fundamental pressure. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady to Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv $154.12 -0.87* Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv $ 84.80 -1.30** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: The lion's share of cash cattle trade has been delayed until Friday since limited packer interest showed up just in the last couple of days. So far, most feeders are unwilling to accept current bids that are steady-to-firm with last week's price levels. Given the recent surge in beef values and this week's slow but steady growth in futures trade, it is expected that prices will show improvement unless overall futures markets would happen to fall apart through the day. Futures trade is expected to remain generally firm as follow-through support is moving back into the complex. Traders will get their first chance to trade Thursday's Cold Storage report, which reported 455 million pounds of beef in warehouses. This is a 12% jump from June levels but is 6% under year-ago levels. The indication that year-over-year clearance remains good, with the larger amount of cattle inventory through the year remaining positive, but traders are likely to be uneasy at the size of month-over-month growth, and what this may indicate for short-term beef demand. It is expected that traders will not spend much time on the Cold Storage report with the Cattle on Feed report released after trade closes Friday. This will likely cause some additional market adjustments ahead of the report.
DTN Early Word Grains 08/23 05:57
DTN Early Word Grains 08/23 05:57 Grains Mixed as Price Limps into Weekend December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 1 1/2 cents, and December K.C. wheat is up 1/4 cents. By Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 1 1/2 cents, and December K.C. wheat is up 1/4 cents. CME Globex Recap: Mostly higher global equity markets overnight as the U.S. continues its recovery from the early August meltdown. Investors were counting on the Federal Reserve to provide another rate cut at its September meeting following one at its August meeting, but comments from Fed officials surrounding the Jackson Hole symposium seem to suggest opinions are much more split about further cuts. Grains are mixed on the final trading session of the week with most contracts carrying losses into the weekend. The Ag space has witnessed lower weekly closes in five of the last six weeks, bringing prices down to the spring lows before any of the late-planting premium was added. Bulls desperately need to see signs of fresh demand at this lower price structure to avoid further losses. Regardless of how small this crop is, there will be no shortage of grain anywhere in the United States on November 1. What the producer chooses to sell vs. store at harvest will have a big impact on cash and spreads, signals the market will need in coming weeks. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 49.51 at 26,252.24 and the S&P 500 down 1.48 at 2,924.43 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.61%. Early Friday, the September DJIA futures are up 89 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 82.9 (0.4%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 13.99 points (0.49%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 54.04 points (0.76%), Germany's DAX up 61.46 points (0.52%) and France's CAC 40 up 31.11 points (0.58%). The September Euro is down 0.002 at 1.110 and the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.206 at 98.270. The September 30-Year T-Bond is down 23/32nds, while December gold is down $2.90 at $1,505.60 and October crude oil is down $0.06 at $55.29. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.53% while soybean meal was up 1.03%.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/22 11:03
DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/22 11:03 Corn, Beans Lower at Midday Broad selling at midday except for wheat. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 380 lower. The dollar index is 40 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are weaker with crude down 1.50. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 27.30 higher. CORN Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower with choppy trade continuing amid fresh intensification of the trade war. Weather should continue to remain a short-term non-issue with continued cool weather the biggest concern at this point. Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders in the best position currently, with more plants likely to be idled with rumors of the refinery waivers to be reversed again refuted. Basis remains mixed overall with harvest getting closer. On the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.57 1/2 low with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.47 below that with resistance the 10-day at $3.65. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents lower with early buying disappearing again with trade slipping further into the lower end of the range amid the trade war intensification. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower, and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Crush margins remain positive overall, with oil staying towards the upper end of the range, and meal finding support at $2.90. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian real is at the lows again with the dollar strength, ensuring strong prices to domestic producers there, even with the midday dollar reversal. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans as well coming forward. The trade situation remains little changed as well. September chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.41, with the next round up the 10-day $8.61 which we tested again today. WHEAT Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade seeing light choppy action after the strong finish yesterday. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 78 after a high of 90 cents last week and a low of 71 cents this week with Kansas City gaining slightly overnight. The corn/HRW spread is wider, back to 31 cents. Kansas City wheat is now back to competitive on the world market trading as well as into feed rations, although that has faded in recent days. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe progressing as well. The dollar remains near the upper end of the range, limiting upside potential. The September Kansas City chart support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 10-day at $3.89 which we are just above at midday, and the 20-day at $4.06. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/23 11:55
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 08/23 11:55 Sharp Losses Flood Livestock Trade Livestock futures are holding sharp losses midday Friday as continued fundamental weakness is combined with aggressive outside market pressure based on China tariff announcements. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst General Comments Livestock futures are holding triple-digit losses in all contracts as the focus on increased beef inventory on a month to month level has reversed recent buyer interest through the complex. Hog futures tumbled through long-term support levels, creating a market free-fall as prices are testing daily limit losses. Corn futures are lower in light morning trade. September corn futures are 4 1/2 cents lower. Stock markets are lower in active trade. Dow Jones is 440 points lower with NASDAQ down 168 points. LIVE CATTLE: Traders quickly reacted to a combination of fundamental and outside market factors Friday morning, leaving a wake of sharp losses in its path. A strong increase in beef inventory in July compared to June took the industry and market by surprise. While announcements by China that it would increase tariffs on $75 billion of imports has left outside markets struggling late in the week. This has created active pressure in all contracts with nearby futures holding $2 per cwt losses. Despite limit losses in feeder cattle trade, so far there has been no attempt to test daily limits, but the general weakness in the complex could quickly spark additional late day pressure in all live cattle futures. Cash cattle trade is starting to slowly develop through the morning with Northern regions posting dressed trade at $175 per cwt. This is generally $4.50 per cwt above last week's average. There are a few delayed delivery deals bought by regional packers at $176 to $178 per cwt through the morning. Increased activity is expected in all areas through the rest of the day. Some of this trade may be delayed until after the cattle on feed report in case of any surprises. The bearishness in futures trade may limit the amount of cattle sold once again, causing feeders to carry cattle over to next week's offerings. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $1.89 lower (select) and down $1.40 (choice) with light movement of 49 total loads reported (26 loads of choice cuts, 10 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 13 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Sharp morning losses have flooded the feeder cattle complex Friday morning. A combination of increased beef inventory during July from June levels and uncertainty of the upcoming cattle on feed report has turned September futures limit lower and sharp pressure in all contract months. As we have seen over the last two weeks, it has taken very little momentum to create sharp market reactions. This is likely another one of those examples of how any sense of fear is being multiplied by already nervous traders. Given the extremely wide market swings over the last two weeks, this aggressive market move leaves prices still well above support levels, limiting technical direction shifts at the end of the week. LEAN HOGS: The general bearish tone seen through the lean hog complex through most of the week continues to get worse as sharp triple digit losses are testing daily trading limits, and have also blown through long term support levels that had been holding by a thread over the last couple of days. October futures posted a $2.85 per cwt loss, moving prices well below support levels of $62 per cwt and quickly pushing prices under $59.50 per cwt. This is sparking additional technical liquidation across the complex and with combination of weakening fundamentals, trade pressure may continue early next week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.02 at $65.10 per cwt with the range from $56 to $70.00 on 6,166 head reported sold. Pork values trickled higher with gains in most primals offsetting sharp losses in rib cuts. Pork cutouts added $0.19 per cwt at $80.13 per cwt with 103 loads traded. Lean hog index for 8/21 is $77.04, down 0.36, with a projected two-day index at $75.94, down 1.10. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/23 13:45
DTN Closing Grain Comments 08/23 13:45 China Retaliates; Soybeans, Other Commodities Mostly Lower Friday's trading in grains was dominated by China's announcement of a new tariff on $75 billion of U.S. goods and by concerns as to how the U.S. will respond. Not only were November soybeans 12 1/4 cents lower and December corn 3 1/4 cents lower, most other commodities and U.S. stocks were also trading lower.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 08/23 15:30
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 08/23/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 8,517 WEEK TO DATE: 8,926
STEERS LIVE FOB
3,808 105.00-106.00 105.00-106.00 105.98
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
2,160 105.00-106.00 105.00-106.00 105.81
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 12,727 WEEK TO DATE: 21,510
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
3,965 175.00-178.00 175.00-178.00 175.92
STEERS DRESSED FOB
470 175.00-175.00 175.00-175.00 175.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
1,685 175.00-175.00 175.00-175.00 175.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
92 175.00-175.00 175.00-175.00 175.00
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 4,060 WEEK TO DATE: 4,060
STEERS LIVE FOB
1,684 106.00-106.00 106.00-106.00 106.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
1,577 105.00-106.00 105.00-106.00 105.71
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Not reported due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 5,373 WEEK TO DATE: 14,121
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
2,243 174.00-178.00 175.00-176.00 175.55
STEERS DRESSED FOB
261 175.00-175.00 175.00-175.00 175.00
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
1,309 174.00-176.00 174.00-176.00 175.61
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
25 175.00-175.00 175.00-175.00 175.00
COMMENTS: A light to moderate developed in most areas today. Dressed
deals in Nebraska and Iowa were at mostly $175, generally $4.50 higher than
last weeks weighted average basis Nebraska. A few Regionals in Nebraska have
paid $176 to $178, these are set for delayed delivery (the week of September
2nd). Southern live trade was at mostly $106, generally $1 higher than last
week's weighted averages.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $No Test HIDE&OFFAL: $9.15 -0.11
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $166.82 $142.82 30,676
BOX BASED $225.52 $200.71 32,351
AVE INDEX $196.17 -0.33 $171.76 -0.40 63,027
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$237.52 -1.76 $212.71 -3.20
37.06 LDS CH CUTS / 17.57 LDS SEL CUTS / 0.00 LDS TRIM / 22.11 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Lr/Shrply lr on lt-mod dem & offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 08/16 $218.12 +6.61
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $176.16 -0.17
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 33.75 lds / Not fully established
90% TRIM: 10 lds: Wtd Avg $224.30 / Slightly lower
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 115(577) WK AGO 114(577) YR AGO 114(584) MIX: THU SH91/CB24
SAT 77(654) WK AGO 74(651) YR AGO 58(642)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 08/10/19 1,748 6,802
Week Ending: 08/03/19 1,386 4,867
Change from prev week: +362 +1,935
DTN Chart Technical Points 08/23 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 08/23 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 8/23/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT SEP 475.25 466.25 468.44 478.13 498.49 48.38 45.45 46.04 63 38 16 11 CBTWT DEC 477.75 471.00 473.61 482.19 506.47 45.17 42.66 44.11 59 38 15 11 KC WT SEP 391.50 389.44 389.03 402.88 430.27 37.47 36.70 40.11 57 51 13 12 KC WT DEC 404.75 402.88 403.69 418.69 448.80 32.70 32.88 37.89 41 39 9 9 MN WT SEP 498.75 500.88 502.97 511.33 526.16 25.54 30.00 37.50 15 18 5 7 MN WT DEC 514.50 514.75 515.92 523.82 539.21 28.93 31.27 37.61 24 22 6 7 CORN SEP 359.75 361.25 362.97 382.31 412.66 29.53 31.45 37.98 34 31 6 7 CORN DEC 367.75 369.44 372.31 391.26 419.82 27.20 29.90 37.20 25 22 5 6 CORN MAR 380.00 381.69 384.81 402.71 428.93 26.85 29.76 37.08 23 21 4 6 OATS SEP 264.75 268.56 272.00 269.43 272.01 39.70 42.70 45.31 17 17 51 67 OATS DEC 267.00 268.88 269.58 269.08 273.14 44.50 45.48 47.08 27 43 50 55 BEANS SEP 843.25 853.88 859.61 860.72 883.11 34.58 37.90 42.54 21 21 21 27 BEANS NOV 856.50 866.63 872.28 873.39 895.54 34.93 38.17 42.72 21 21 21 27 BEANS JAN 871.25 880.63 886.03 886.94 908.34 35.39 38.54 43.01 22 21 22 28 S MEAL SEP 289.90 293.08 293.87 295.16 304.72 35.47 36.98 40.69 30 32 11 13 S MEAL OCT 291.80 295.00 295.73 296.96 306.48 35.73 37.24 40.87 32 34 12 13 B OIL SEP 28.34 28.51 28.81 28.61 28.38 43.16 47.00 49.20 24 21 43 54 B OIL OCT 28.45 28.63 28.93 28.73 28.50 43.12 46.94 49.15 24 22 43 54 CATTLE AUG 104.63 103.52 101.68 104.51 105.85 53.93 49.43 46.71 91 83 31 15 CATTLE OCT 99.40 100.18 99.25 103.04 105.96 32.40 32.50 36.48 67 67 15 9 FEEDER AUG 137.35 137.36 135.29 137.40 138.65 50.16 48.57 47.26 82 83 57 49 FEEDER SEP 133.25 134.67 133.02 136.11 138.37 41.77 42.07 43.19 64 69 40 35 HOGS OCT 59.30 62.47 63.58 65.40 70.67 28.90 32.56 37.87 9 22 8 11 HOGS DEC 58.78 61.79 62.48 63.47 69.26 30.68 33.61 38.49 16 32 15 18 COTTON OCT 57.97 58.97 59.31 59.40 62.28 34.66 36.27 37.71 28 40 32 37 COTTON DEC 58.21 59.06 59.36 59.58 62.63 34.76 35.75 37.01 31 41 24 29 RICE SEP 10.98 10.94 11.14 11.35 11.61 30.63 33.16 41.19 8 4 2 3 RICE NOV 11.28 11.24 11.44 11.63 11.83 30.83 33.85 42.53 9 4 2 3
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 08/23 17:12
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 08/23 17:12 Cattle on Feed Numbers Steady Cattle on feed numbers remained steady with July 2018 levels, according to USDA's report on Friday. Sharp losses across the entire complex Friday limited the focus on the report. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Sharp losses flooded the entire livestock market Friday as traders continued to focus on larger-than-expected beef supplies in July and the bearish market tone continued as traders adjusted from earlier-week gains. Nearby hog futures closed limit down, breaking through long-term support levels. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Aug LC, up $4.70; Oct LC, up $1.35; Aug FC, up $2.78; Sep FC, up $0.88; Oct LH, off $2.70; Dec LH, off $2.00. Cash cattle trade developed through the second half of Friday with Southern live trade seen mostly $106 per cwt. This is generally $1 per cwt higher than last week, but still continues to focus on the underlying market weakness seen in the entire cattle complex. Dressed trade in the North developed with most trade to major packers at $175 per cwt. This is $4.50 per cwt higher than last week. A few deals were reported to regional packers with delayed delivery agreements at $176 to $178 per cwt. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $1.57 lower ($55-$70.00, weighted average $64.55 per cwt) on 13,468 head sold. Corn futures inched lower in light trade with September down 3 1/2 cents lower. Stock markets were lower in active trade with the Dow down 623 points and the NASDAQ down 239 points.
