DTN Early Word Grains 09/18 05:48
DTN Early Word Grains 09/18 05:48 Grain Markets Higher as China Returns From Holiday December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 12 1/2 cents, December KC wheat is up 3 cents, December Chicago wheat is up 2 3/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat is up 1 1/2 cents. Kent Beadle, DTN Contributing Analyst EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 12 1/2 cents, December KC wheat is up 3 cents, December Chicago wheat is up 2 3/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat is up 1 1/2 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: World equity markets are mixed but mostly lower as all eyes are on the decision from the Federal Reserve which will be announced at 1 p.m. CDT Wednesday. Traders still seem to be mixed on whether the rate cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. Tuesday's data was mostly better than expected, but not by significant amounts. The retail sales report was the strongest report released Tuesday, with sales up 0.1% compared to expectations at -0.2%. It seems as if consensus Tuesday was moving toward a 25-basis point cut, but the market will be wanting dovish comments from Chairman Powell should that be the decision. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 15.90 at 41,606.18 and the S&P 500 up 1.49 at 5,634.58. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 3.642%. Early Wednesday, the September Dow Jones Futures are up 63 points. European markets are lower with the spot futures of London's FTSE 100 trading down 0.7%, spot futures of Germany's DAX is trading down 0.06% and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index down 0.27%. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index down 0.27% and China's Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/18 06:15
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/18 06:15 Renewed Optimism May Support Futures Traders did not wait for cash cattle to trade and pushed futures higher. The expectations of at least steady cash increased the desire to move futures closer to cash. Hog futures broke out to the upside exceeding Tuesday's high and potentially resuming the uptrend. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $223.29 -$0.31* Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $101.09 +$0.78** *Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue. GENERAL COMMENTS: Traders did not want to wait around to see what cash would do and bought futures aggressively. It seems they wanted to reduce some of the discount the market is holding to cash and felt comfortable buying even though cash may trade steady this week. The increase was not enough to change the trend, but it provides hope for further upside potential. Boxed beef prices did not provide much support with prices mixed with choice down $0.66 and select up $0.08. The upcoming Cattle on Feed report and the potential for steady cash trade may limit upside price potential. Feeder cattle follow the strength of live cattle as usual. There was little else to move the market.
National Lean Hog Values 09/01
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 10:45
DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/18 10:45
Corn and Wheat Mixed at Midday; Soybeans Higher
Corn futures are narrowly mixed; soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher;
wheat futures are narrowly mixed.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are narrowly mixed; soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher;
wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market is weaker at midday
with the S&P 5 points lower. The dollar index is 2 points higher. The interest
rate products are weaker. Energy trade has crude 0.15 higher and natural gas is
0.3 lower. Livestock trade is narrowly mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold up 6.50.
CORN:
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday with early gains fading with
rangebound trade continuing with little fresh news to move action. The weekly
ethanol report saw production off by 31,000 barrels per day, with stocks up by
71,000 barrels. Weather looks to mostly keep maturity moving forward ahead of
wetter weather expected to slow harvest progress late in the week with good
progress likely to be made in the field before then. Basis action will likely
continue to fade into mid-month as more bushels become available. The daily
export wire was quiet today with weekly sales expected to be in the 500,000 to
750,000 metric ton range tomorrow. On the December chart the 20-day at 4.03 is
support with the next round up at the Upper Bollinger Band at $4.19.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday fading off the overnight
highs with meal turning lower and oil fading from the highs with harvest
pressure showing a bit more. Meal is 0.50 to 1.50 lower and oil is 15 to 25
points higher. Warmer weather should continue to push maturity in much of the
belt with early harvest likely to make good progress before moisture expected
late week in the north and west. Better rains will be needed in Brazil to get
early planting underway with the immediate forecast remaining on the dry side
and some moisture in the extended forecast. The daily wire was quiet again with
weekly sales expected to be in the 750,000 to 1.0 million metric ton range.
Basis will see more pressure short term with exports still a couple of weeks
from hitting full stride to offset harvest pressure. The November chart support
is at the 20-day moving average at $9.98, with the Upper Bollinger Band at
10.32 as the next level of resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with early gains fading again with trade
continuing to consolidate the recent range after the Monday pull back. Northern
Hemisphere harvest should continue to wind down easing the remaining harvest
pressure on spring wheat. Early plains wheat drilling is under way with some
wetter conditions expected later this week which should boost early emergence.
Black sea news has remained quieter this week. The dollar has faded back to the
low end of the range ahead of the Fed meeting, with MATIF wheat holding the
range after fading from the early gains as well. On the KC December Chart
support is the 20-day at $5.70, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $6.08 as the
next level of resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/18 11:36
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/18 11:36
Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Sport Higher Prices into Wednesday's Noon Hour
Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but packer interest could improve
later this afternoon.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are trading mostly higher into
Wednesday's noon hour, but the feeder cattle market isn't as sold as its market
is currently trading mixed. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but
packer interest should improve later this afternoon. December corn is up 1 3/4
cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 47.57 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Wednesday's noon hour
as the market anticipates interest rates to be lowered this afternoon and
believes that there's a strong chance that the cash cattle market could trade
at least steady again this week. October live cattle are down slightly, but
besides that contract, the entire rest of the marketplace is trading higher. It
is also worth noting that the spot December contract is currently trading above
its 40-day moving average, which has been a resistance point at which the
market has struggled to hurdle over. October live cattle are down $0.22 at
$178.57, December live cattle are up $0.15 at $180.00 and February live cattle
are up $0.05 at $181.05. The cash cattle market is still quiet with no bids
having developed yet. Asking prices are noted in the South at $184 to $185 but
have not yet been established in the North.
Boxed beef prices are lower: Choice down $0.36 ($303.55) and select down
$0.61 ($291.61) with a movement of 107 loads (68.13 loads of choice, 28.85
loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.59 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market's nearby contracts
seem to be holding their breath -- waiting to see how just how much interest
rates are decreased by and waiting to see if the spot December live cattle
contract can indeed close above its 40-day moving average. October feeders are
down $0.82 at $239.92, November feeders are down $0.30 at $238.00 and January
feeders are steady at $233.02. It's likely that the market will merely chop
sideways through the afternoon as it waits to see what support (or lack
thereof) stems from the live cattle market's trade today.
LEAN HOGS:
Between seeing ample support from traders and the morning's positive note of
stronger pork cutout values, the lean hog complex is trading higher into
Wednesday's noon hour with ease. October lean hogs are up $0.25 at $82.07,
December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $73.75 and February lean hogs are up $0.07
at $76.87. I'm somewhat surprised to see that the morning's cash hog market has
only traded 375 head as I thought that packers would need to be at least
aggressive one more day this week to avoid being short bought. So, monitoring
the afternoon's cash report will be important this afternoon.
The projected lean hog index for 9/17/2024 is steady at $84.22, and the
actual index for 9/16/2024 is down $0.16 at $84.22. Hog prices are unavailable
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can
see that only 375 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling
average now sits at $76.55. Pork cutouts total 181.85 loads with 162.44 loads
of pork cuts and 19.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.08, $96.08.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/18 13:53
DTN Closing Grain Comments 09/18 13:53 Corn, Wheat Markets Start Strong but Weaken after Aggressive Rate Cut; Soybeans Finish Firm Early Wednesday grain and soy markets opened very firm, led by November soybeans, which rose above the 50-day moving average for the first time since May. Although coming off the daily high, soybeans and bean oil were able to finish firm, while corn and wheat ended in the red. The Federal Reserve made an aggressive interest rate cut of 50-basis points late in the session. Dana Mantini Senior Market Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: December corn closed up 1/4 cent per bushel at $4.12 3/4 and May corn was up 1/4 cent at $4.41 1/2. November soybeans closed up 8 cents at $10.14 and March soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents at $10.45 3/4. December KC wheat closed down 1 1/2 at $5.78 1/2, December Chicago wheat was unchanged at $5.75 3/4 and December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents at $6.16 1/2.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 09/18 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 09/18/24
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 43 WEEK TO DATE: 1,281
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: The country was very quiet again today. There were still
just a few asking prices noted in the South at $184 to $185, and bids remained
nonexistent. Significant trade volume will be delayed until sometime Thursday
and/or Friday.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(NEG)PR&WT: $177.97(1527) HIDE&OFFAL: $11.33 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) HEAD
SUPPLY (Live) $273.57 $258.07 50,322
DEMAND (Box) $289.38 $277.75 57,104
INDEX VALUE $281.47 -1.27 $267.91 -1.24 107,426
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$301.38 -2.53 $289.75 -2.47
107.85 LDS CH CUTS / 42.87 LDS SEL CUTS / 7.58 LDS TRIM / 18.13 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $11.63 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 176
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 09/13 $308.10 -4.02
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $285.23 -4.13
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 14.52 lds / Unevenly stdy on lt-mod dem & offers
90% TRIM: 12 lds: Wtd Avg: $364.62 / Sharply lower
FI KILL(WTD) WED 125(371) WK AGO 124(362) YR AGO 128(374)
PREVIOUS DAY BREAKDOWN: TUESDAY SH 101 / CB 24
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 09/07/24 1,361 11,967
Week Ending: 08/31/24 2,666 8,907
Change from prev week: -1,305 +3,060
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/18 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 09/18 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 9/18/24 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 575.75 581.19 576.92 563.60 560.27 55.34 54.63 49.74 24 46 78 83 CBTWT MAR 595.25 600.13 595.97 583.36 580.28 55.69 54.79 49.71 24 46 78 82 KC WT DEC 578.50 584.75 583.42 572.74 570.48 50.93 51.51 48.20 15 38 76 81 KC WT MAR 591.75 597.75 596.53 585.72 583.79 51.10 51.59 48.13 13 37 75 81 MN WT DEC 616.50 623.19 617.94 605.96 609.13 52.80 52.35 48.28 37 57 82 82 MN WT MAR 638.00 644.00 639.11 627.49 627.93 53.62 53.22 48.89 36 56 82 82 CORN DEC 412.75 412.31 408.64 403.81 403.86 62.94 57.84 49.43 86 83 84 74 CORN MAR 430.75 430.44 427.06 422.22 421.10 63.41 58.37 50.03 88 84 85 76 CORN MAY 441.50 441.13 438.00 432.76 431.63 64.88 59.24 50.37 89 85 86 78 OATS DEC 355.25 361.69 363.50 348.06 329.06 53.85 57.43 55.83 18 41 75 88 OATS MAR 353.75 360.00 362.19 347.90 330.40 53.26 57.16 55.31 19 40 73 86 BEANS NOV1014.001007.691006.921001.611009.93 57.32 53.12 46.40 47 42 68 66 BEANS JAN1032.001026.251025.191019.431026.93 57.38 53.29 46.64 48 44 69 67 BEANS MAR1045.751040.501039.561033.891040.81 57.12 53.23 46.88 47 43 69 67 S MEAL OCT 317.90 318.60 318.23 315.32 313.61 53.86 52.91 49.20 58 56 67 66 S MEAL DEC 321.40 322.40 322.19 318.52 316.17 53.98 53.27 49.48 50 51 69 67 B OIL OCT 40.99 40.21 40.28 40.85 41.42 53.63 50.57 47.17 58 38 35 38 B OIL DEC 40.31 39.56 39.67 40.32 40.94 52.63 49.68 46.36 57 37 32 35 CATTLE OCT 178.30 177.99 177.26 177.68 180.33 52.33 49.32 47.17 68 71 60 46 CATTLE DEC 179.85 179.14 177.81 177.62 180.38 60.53 54.25 48.56 79 81 77 58 FEEDER SEP 242.83 242.33 240.27 240.20 244.71 58.01 52.30 46.40 74 78 83 65 FEEDER OCT 239.95 239.71 237.46 237.32 242.59 56.73 51.46 45.52 75 79 83 65 HOGS OCT 82.05 80.55 79.74 80.64 77.73 64.73 61.61 56.54 87 63 63 59 HOGS DEC 73.88 72.76 72.04 72.07 69.59 68.44 64.36 57.39 85 68 79 74 COTTON OCT 69.68 70.43 69.31 69.69 68.57 50.97 51.39 48.82 56 68 67 57 COTTON DEC 71.27 71.52 69.98 69.96 69.29 57.53 55.92 51.28 81 85 81 67 RICE NOV 15.47 15.34 15.16 15.11 15.08 64.81 59.67 54.47 92 87 89 69 RICE JAN 15.60 15.49 15.32 15.28 15.27 63.85 58.92 54.19 94 89 90 69
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/18 16:00
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 09/18 16:00 Live Cattle and Lean Hogs Celebrate a Higher End Wednesday Afternoon Heading into Thursday's trade export data and any developments in the cash cattle market will remain key factors for the day's trade. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Even though traders believed that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this afternoon, it was peace of mind to see Chairman Powell publicly announce a half-point cut this afternoon. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and it's likely that trade could be delayed until Friday. December corn is up 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 180.19 points.
