DTN Early Word Grains 06/09 05:49
DTN Early Word Grains 06/09 05:49 Corn and Wheat Prices are Lower, Soybeans Higher on Positioning Ahead of Friday Morning's USDA Supply and Demand Report July corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 4 3/4 cents, July KC wheat is down 10 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat is down 3 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is down 8 1/4 cents. Kent Beadle, DTN Contributing Analyst EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: July corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel, July soybeans are up 4 3/4 cents, July KC wheat is down 10 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat is down 3 cents and July Minneapolis wheat is down 8 1/4 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: Equity markets are slightly lower in the U.S. Friday morning after stocks reversed higher again on Thursday. The S&P 500 closed at new yearly highs and it is now up over 20% from the lows which have market commentators saying that bear market has ended and that we are now in a bull market in stocks once again. World markets are quiet with the next important data points being the U.S. CPI and PPI reports out early next week, right ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that will end on Wednesday. China announced their PPI Friday morning and it fell by 4.6%, the steepest drop in over 7 years. Their CPI was up 0.2%, in line with last month's data. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 168.59 at 33,833.61 and the S&P 500 up 26.41 at 4,293.93, The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 3.71%. Early Friday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 80 points. European markets are lower with the spot futures of London's FTSE 100 trading down 0.34%, spot futures of Germany's DAX is trading down 0.38% and the spot futures of France's CAC 40 Index down 0.33%. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up 1.97% and China's Shanghai Composite Index up 0.55%. The June Euro is down 0.002 at 1.076 and the June U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.189 at 103.505. The September 30-Year T-Bond is down 14/32nds, while August gold is steady at $1,978.60 and July crude oil is down $0.03 at $71.26. On China's Dalian Exchange, July corn was up 0.3% while July soybeans were up 0.26%, September soybean meal was up 0.35% and August Malaysian Palm Oil was trading up 3.25%.
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/09 06:26
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/09 06:26 WASDE Report May Provide Direction Cattle futures tried to move higher Thursday but succumbed to further selling pressure in the end. This is surprising as cash cattle traded higher this week. Hogs put in somewhat of a quiet day with August closing its chart gap. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $239.50 +$2.32* Hogs: Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $92.77 +$0.53** *Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue. GENERAL COMMENTS: It was surprising livestock futures closed lower Thursday. The market looked as if it was going to rebound, only to run out of aggressive buying interest in the end. Cash cattle traded higher this week in the North while most Southern trade should take place Friday. So far it has been light, but what has taken place has been $3.00 to $7.00 higher. Boxed beef was strong again Thursday with choice cuts up $3.54 and select up $2.54. So far, it has been a strong week for boxed beef, which provides the confidence for feedlots to hold for higher cash. Weekly export sales totaled 12,800 metric tons (mt) which was down 29% from the previous week, indicating higher prices may be impacting international demand. Feeder cattle futures began slipping as corn futures began climbing from early losses. Feeder cattle are in demand with higher prices being paid at auctions, but traders traded market correlations and corn in one of those correlations. The WASDE report will impact grains and that may provide direction for cattle.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/09 10:46
DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/09 10:46 Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 11 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 10 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 11 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 8. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude .05 higher and natural gas off .05. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 1.50. CORN: Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with softer spread action as we remain rangebound ahead of the WASDE report and weekend rains and forecasts. Ethanol margins should remain solid in the near term, with unleaded holding recent gains with fading basis more favorable for summer production. On the USDA report, traders are looking for old-crop carryout at 1.449 billion bushels (bb) up slightly from last month, with new crop at 2.254 bb, also up slightly with yields expected to remain at trendline. Basis continues to hold a softer tone with most users bidding off December at this point. The second crop in Brazil heads toward the homestretch with some recent rains, and a cold front that could hurt some of the last-planted corn in the coming days. On the July chart we have support at the 20-day moving average at $5.89 with the recent high at $6.14 hanging above the market. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 11 to 21 cents higher at midday with firmer spread action as we score fresh highs for the move pre-report with oil leading the product complex. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and oil is 175 to 195 points higher. The daily export wire saw sales of 197,000 metric tons (mt) old crop to unknown. On the report, trade will be looking for 223 million bushels (mb) of old-crop carryout and 345 mb of new, up slightly from last month, with trendline yields. Basis will likely remain a little softer with most buyers rolling to the back months. Planting should be on the homestretch nationally with the east remaining drier in the short term before broader rains should boost emergence over the weekend on the later-planted acres. July chart support is the 20-day moving average at $13.43, which we closed solidly above, with the Upper Bollinger Band well above the market at $13.96. WHEAT: Wheat futures are 1 to 10 cents lower with Chicago leading as the intra-contract spread action remains very active. There is notable volume in Chicago pre-report with little other fresh news. On the report, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 606 mb, up slightly, and new crop at 569 mb, also up slightly. Warmer weather may stress spring wheat in the short term, but otherwise we are caught up after the slow start. Plains harvest should pick up around rains this weekend as well, keeping us near an average pace there. There are some concerns with the longer term weather pattern for Australia. The dollar is just off the recent highs, with Matif wheat holding solidly higher. On the KC July chart, the $8.00 level, which we have tested this morning remains resistance, with the lower Bollinger band at $7.61 as support. ** Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Friday as we go through the numbers, discuss what they mean for prices and hear DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman's take on which estimates are reasonable and which are not. We also welcome and make time for questions. Register here for Friday's June WASDE and Crop Production reports webinar: https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/09 11:32
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/09 11:32 Friday's WASDE Report Doesn't Bring Much New News to the Livestock Complex Heading into Friday afternoon, traders will continue to watch for more cash cattle trade to develop in the South as receipts are still light there. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The livestock complex is trending mostly higher into Friday's noon hour as the midmorning WASDE report didn't create any shake-up in the market and as traders continue to note the strong nature of the cash cattle complex. July corn is down 10 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.38 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle complex is back to trading higher as traders take the momentum built in the cash cattle complex as a solid reason why to again advance the contracts. June live cattle are up $0.85 at $179.62, August live cattle are up $0.12 at $172.10 and October live cattle are up $0.35 at $175.05. Helping this week's market aside from the tremendous gains seen in the cash complex has been the continued upward trend of boxed beef prices. The cash cattle market has seen a little more business develop in the South as packers didn't get enough cattle bought Thursday afternoon. There's been another roughly 1,000 head traded in Kansas for $186, which is roughly $1.00 higher than what the bulk of the cattle traded for on Thursday. Thursday afternoon Southern live cattle traded for $184 to $191, but mostly at $185 which is $7.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded for $290 to $304 this week, but mostly at $300 which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Friday's WASDE report was supportive of the beef and cattle markets, although it didn't share much new news to speak of. Beef production for 2023 was raised slightly as throughput is expected to remain snappy on both fed and non-fed cattle classes. 2023 beef production grew by 165 million pounds from last month's report. Quarterly steer prices were raised from last month as relentless beef demand and thin supplies continue to push the cash market to new all-time highs. For 2023 the second quarter is estimated to average $179 which is $7.00 higher than last month, the third quarter is expected to average $173 which is $9.00 higher than last month, and the fourth quarter is expected to average $174 which is $5.00 higher than last month. There were no changes made to beef imports or exports compared to a month ago. 2023 beef imports are expected to total 3,501 million pounds, and exports are expected to total 3,224 million pounds. Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.25 ($330.98) and select up $2.47 ($306.57) with a movement of 56 loads (32.20 loads of choice, 11.97 loads of select, 4.10 loads of trim and 7.39 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: At the nearby corn contracts rally $0.07 to $0.09 lower, the feeder cattle market hasn't wasted any time regaining some position that it had lost earlier in the week. The frustrating thing about this past week's market has been that traders seem null to just how strong and robust the cattle market's fundamentals are. Whether you look to the prices gained in the cash cattle market or the relentless nature of the feeder cattle complex -- the market's fundamentals are clear: demand is incredibly high and there simply aren't enough cattle to go around. But even so, earlier this week traded elected to focus on outside pressures despite all the optimism that engulfs the cattle complex. But thankfully come Friday, traders are seeming to have a slightly different approach to the market as the nearby feeder cattle contracts are all trading well above $1.00 higher. August feeders are up $1.30 at $239.97, September feeders are up $1.55 at $243.02 and October feeders are up $1.15 at $244.60. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher although a few of its deferred contracts are trading just below steady. July lean hogs are up $1.42 at $88.62, August lean hogs are up $0.82 at $83.25 and October lean hogs are up $0.40 at $74.85. The cash hog market took a drastic turn this morning as prices are trading over $8.00 lower and there haven't even been 1,000 head traded. This change in behavior from packers isn't all that unexpected as they were aggressive in the week early on -- even on Monday. But even so, traders are supporting the lean hog complex into Friday's noon hour as they hope that the midday's strong carcass prices remain a factor in the afternoon close as well. Friday's WASDE report could be viewed as neutral for the hog and pork markets. Pork production for 2023 was slightly lower as although processing speeds continue to be vigorous, carcass weights have declined. 2023 pork production was decreased by 5 million pounds from last month's report. Quarterly hog prices remained unchanged from a month ago except in the second quarter of 2023 which saw a $1.00 price increase to now average $57, the second quarter remained steady at $60 and the third quarter remained steady at $55. 2023 pork imports remained steady at 1,069 million pounds, but 2023 exports did increase by 300 million pounds to now total 6,803 million pounds. The projected lean hog index for 6/8/2023 is up $0.48 ($84.28) and the actual index for 6/7/2023 is up $0.76 at $83.80. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $8.82 with a weighted average price of $85.25, ranging from $81.50 to $90.00 on 878 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.61. Pork cutouts total 204.81 loads with 192.06 loads of pork cuts and 12.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.74, $89.42. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com ** At 12:30 p.m., DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman will review details of the report in his monthly webinar. You can sign up for that webinar here: https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dtn.com%2F resources%2Fevents%2Fwebinars%2F&data=05%7C01%7CBrian.Ethridge%40dtn.com%7C40561 34eb75b42e58a1408db66a758c9%7Cd945da26f07f451496e79b8f78a743d0%7C0%7C0%7C6382166 41200567952%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6 Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=l47PUWep5YKVSpg2iwqMhg3mM4cI6UIC2xR Z2EvjKqg%3D&reserved=0 (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 09/03
DTN Closing Grain Comments 06/09 13:59
DTN Closing Grain Comments 06/09 13:59 Soybean Oil Emerges as Largest Gainer After USDA Leaves Production Estimates Unchanged July soybean oil closed 5.09 cents higher than a week ago, the largest percentage gainer among grain-related contracts with possible help from a dispute in Europe. Soybean prices got a lift from the new interest in bean oil, while corn and KC wheat ended lower. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: July corn closed down 6 cents and December corn was down 2 1/2 cents. July soybeans closed up 23 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 15 1/4 cents. July KC wheat closed down 7 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 5 1/2 cents.
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 06/09 15:31
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 06/09 15:31 Hogs Press Onward Through Friday's End Heading into next week's market, cattlemen are anxious to see how packers regard the cash cattle complex after having to pay higher prices yet again this past week. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The lean hog complex ran higher through Friday's end, but both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed mixed as their markets weren't as widely supported. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $8.60 with a weighted average price of $85.52 on 1,208 head. July corn is down 6 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $6.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 43.63 points.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 06/09 15:35
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 06/09/23
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 7,239 WEEK TO DATE: 14,201
STEERS LIVE FOB
2,816 186.00-186.00 186.00-186.00 186.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
1,198 186.00-186.00 186.00-186.00 186.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 4,760 WEEK TO DATE: 34,048
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
477 300.00-300.00 300.00-300.00 300.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
100 300.00-300.00 300.00-300.00 300.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 443 WEEK TO DATE: 8,467
STEERS LIVE FOB
259 185.00-185.00 185.00-185.00 185.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
147 185.00-185.00 185.00-185.00 185.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,336 WEEK TO DATE: 34,695
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: This week Northern dressed trade has had a full range of
$290 to $304, mostly $300, generally $10 higher than the previous week's
weighted averages. Southern live trade has had a range of $184 to $191,
mostly $185, $7 to $8 higher than the prior week's weighted averages.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $185.92(1382) HIDE&OFFAL: $12.75 Unchg
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) HEAD
SUPPLY (Live) $286.12 $267.28 78,293
DEMAND (Box) $320.93 $293.71 39,981
INDEX VALUE $303.52 +4.23 $280.49 +2.94 118,274
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$332.93 +4.20 $305.71 +1.61
47.72 LDS CH CUTS / 19.02 LDS SEL CUTS / 4.14 LDS TRIM / 10.41 LDS GROUND
DAILY CHOICE/SELECT SPREAD $27.22 TOTAL LOAD COUNT 81
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 06/02 $299.90 +1.72
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $228.02 +1.33
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 17.67 lds / Unevenly sty on lt dem & offers
90% TRIM: 07 lds: Wtd Avg: $283.06 / Firm to higher
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 120(615) WK AGO 124(506) YR AGO 124(623) MIX: THU SH98/CB27
SAT 6(621) WK AGO 67(573) YR AGO 48(671)
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
WK ENDING FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 05/27/23 2,298 5,629
Week Ending: 05/20/23 4,328 7,232
Change from prev week: -2,030 -1,603
DTN Chart Technical Points 06/09 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 06/09 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 6/09/23 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT JUL 630.25 625.25 615.56 615.82 642.55 55.76 50.94 45.90 48 58 56 47 CBTWT SEP 641.75 637.13 628.31 628.51 654.41 55.19 50.64 45.80 47 57 55 47 KC WT JUL 797.75 802.69 802.44 822.26 826.09 42.87 44.44 46.46 21 38 27 29 KC WT SEP 793.75 799.50 798.33 816.06 819.67 43.31 44.77 46.49 22 39 29 31 MN WT JUL 811.75 809.50 803.11 813.99 830.59 49.55 48.11 46.73 44 52 31 27 MN WT SEP 812.50 811.63 804.69 815.88 831.97 49.08 47.85 46.87 43 52 31 26 CORN JUL 604.25 606.69 601.53 588.71 599.69 56.09 54.04 49.87 72 74 86 85 CORN SEP 524.50 528.13 526.53 516.88 533.37 50.80 49.24 45.30 41 54 75 77 CORN DEC 530.50 533.81 532.28 521.75 533.08 52.46 51.14 47.23 40 54 76 81 OATS JUL 358.50 351.44 345.58 339.08 333.71 70.17 64.17 56.15 78 84 89 86 OATS SEP 361.50 355.19 349.83 343.07 338.47 73.20 66.32 57.05 85 89 93 89 BEANS JUL1386.501365.941343.561337.941398.08 64.39 55.75 48.33 88 87 59 45 BEANS AUG1296.001277.061257.001261.511332.88 60.39 51.46 44.33 90 89 49 36 BEANS SEP1218.001200.811186.001193.401259.58 56.98 49.28 42.80 85 83 42 31 S MEAL JUL 397.20 400.78 398.83 404.73 425.24 39.66 38.44 39.51 57 66 26 23 S MEAL AUG 390.00 392.35 391.82 398.31 417.81 36.51 35.66 37.95 42 53 22 21 B OIL JUL 54.59 52.12 49.72 48.77 51.33 73.51 65.09 54.14 89 90 74 51 B OIL AUG 53.50 51.41 49.42 48.65 51.13 70.92 62.93 52.78 88 89 71 50 CATTLE JUN 178.23 178.96 175.81 170.68 166.59 79.81 78.27 72.44 55 71 85 92 CATTLE AUG 171.85 173.20 171.80 167.78 164.54 64.57 66.28 64.79 29 55 77 88 FEEDER AUG 239.00 240.00 240.34 237.05 230.80 58.46 62.06 64.21 21 43 79 88 FEEDER SEP 241.70 242.99 243.38 240.07 233.88 56.69 60.96 64.00 19 41 77 87 HOGS JUN 87.88 87.89 85.62 83.72 85.66 62.55 57.18 49.84 84 87 92 80 HOGS JUL 89.63 88.02 85.09 83.56 86.94 64.92 58.76 50.72 82 84 88 73 COTTON JUL 84.04 84.68 84.83 84.55 82.76 49.36 51.16 51.42 20 36 61 66 COTTON OCT 83.85 83.66 82.60 82.74 82.37 59.43 55.91 52.63 41 45 61 55 RICE JUL 19.03 18.56 17.96 17.49 17.48 82.01 73.46 62.56 90 94 83 65 RICE SEP 15.46 15.34 15.07 15.02 15.15 68.45 60.88 52.14 92 90 82 64
