DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 07/06 06:52
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 07/06 06:52 Will Last Week's Market Optimism Continue Monday Strong triple-digit gains late last week helped to create renewed optimism through the entire cattle complex. It is uncertain just how much follow-through buyer support will move back into the market following the holiday break. Early gains are likely to rekindle moderately bullish support as traders look for additional direction.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 07/06
DTN Early Word Grains 07/06 10:00
DTN Early Word Grains 07/06 10:00 Grains Higher as Weather Looks Problematic September corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 10 cents, and September KC wheat is up 3 1/2 cents. Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst Pre-6 a.m. Globex Prices: September corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel, November soybeans are up 10 cents, and September KC wheat is up 3 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Sharply higher global equities overnight, led by China which saw the largest one-day rally in over a year as state-run media talk up the economy recovery. Financial media were citing a front-page editorial in state-run publications talking about the prospect of a "healthy" bull market, which caused retail investors to pile in, knowing government support was present. U.S. stock futures joined in overnight with gains of 1.3% expected when cash opens Monday morning. Energy markets are higher, fixed income is slightly lower while precious metals are mixed. Grain markets are higher across the board, supported by concern over current weather models for the Midwest the next two weeks. We've officially entered the season of reacting to each and every weather model produced, throwing a healthy dose of volatility into the mix. Traders will want to see fresh highs made early this week to keep this run going. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 92.39 at 25,827.36 and the S&P 500 up 14.15 at 3,115.86 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 0.669%. Early Monday, the September DJIA futures are up 336 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 407.96 (1.83%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 180.07 points (5.71%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 108.31 points (1.76%), Germany's DAX up 185.24 points (1.48%) and France's CAC 40 up 72.45 points (1.45%). The September euro is up 0.006 at 1.130 and the September U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.376 at 96.925. The September 30-year T-Bond is down 13/32nds, while August gold is down $4.80 at $1,785.20 and August crude oil is up $0.12 at $40.77. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were down 1.3% while soybean meal was up 0.69%.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/06 11:56
DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/06 11:56 All Grain Higher at Midday Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 7 to 8 cents higher, and wheat is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher. David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst The U.S. stock market is higher with the Dow 350 points higher. The dollar index is 54 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.50. Livestock trade is firmer with cattle leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $7. CORN Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with the forecast adding support after the end of the week selling going into the weekend as we get closer to pollination but trade has not held the overnight highs. The forecast has warmer temps and spotty rain for most into mid-July. Ethanol margins are expected to see pressure with gasoline demand still soft. USDA said Monday morning the weekly Export Inspections report would not be released until later in the day due to technical difficulties. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions and silking near to slightly above average. On the September contract, support is the 20-day at 3.34 with resistance the $3.53 3/4 highs. SOYBEANS Soybean trade 7 to 9 cents higher at midday to open the week with support from weather, and the cheaper dollar to boost demand. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. The real is up slightly against the dollar, and at the midpoint of the recent range. Crush margins have seen little change in recent days. Drier weather into mid-month will add support but we remain a ways from the key podfill time frame. Weekly crop progress expected to show emergence complete, and blooming just above normal with steady to slightly lower conditions. The USDA announced 264,000 metric tons of beans sold to China for old crop. The August soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high, with support the upper Bollinger band at $8.94. WHEAT Wheat is 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher with winter wheat harvest moving towards the back half of the run, while Russian harvest will continue to expand. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. the dollar with U.S. export competitiveness improved with the sharp break in the dollar. Kansas City is at a 54-cent discount to Chicago on the August, while Minneapolis is back to a 22 cent premium. The September Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.22, and resistance the 20-day at $4.45. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/06 13:36
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/06 13:36
Livestock Contracts Trending Higher
Monday has shot another dose of optimism through the livestock futures and
keeps all three markets trading higher.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
General Comments
Continuing to rally and thrive into Monday's noon hour -- the livestock
complex is continuing to rally off last week's positive movement and has all
three livestock contracts trending higher. The fundamental support for the
market rally is slim to none but as the market keeps inching higher and higher,
time will hold the answers as to how true and substantial this move is.
September corn is up 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.20.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 327.23 points and NASDAQ is up 220.59
points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts jump into the new week full of energy and optimism.
August live cattle are up $0.72 at $100.12, October live cattle are up $1.22 at
$103.90 and December live cattle are up $1.02 at $106.95. Showlists this week
are higher in Kansas, somewhat higher in Texas and somewhat lower in Nebraska
and Colorado. Now with the July Fourth holiday behind us, the market will start
to test the summer fat cattle market immensely. Hot days, a surplus of cattle
and questions regarding third quarter beef demand are going to greatly affect
the cash cattle market in the near future.
Even though last week was shortened for the holiday, cash cattle trade was
huge. The National Weekly Direct Slaughter -- Negotiated Purchases shared that
last week's sales totaled 127,258 head. Of that 118,448 head are committed for
delivery in the next two weeks, and the remaining 8,810 head are for delivery
in the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.38 ($205.06) and select down
$2.27 ($196.49) with a movement of 117 loads (64.44 loads of choice, 17.15
loads of select, 18.86 loads of trim and 16.68 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts haven't forgot about the big price move made last
week before Thursday's close and have picked up that support and are carrying
optimism into this week's marketplace. August feeders are up $0.92 at $135.80,
September feeders are up $0.90 at $136.72 and October feeders are up $0.75 at
$137.40. Feeder cattle prices have been truly commendable throughout the early
summer sales which came as a surprise to most but as prices keep creeping
higher and higher, the feeder cattle contracts could be subject to downward
pressure when cash cattle prices continue to develop for lower money.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog complex; though not as aggressive as the cattle contracts, is
trending higher into the new week throughout the entire complex. July lean hogs
are up $0.42 at $45.15, August lean hogs are up $0.45 at $49.65 and October
lean hogs are up $0.82 at $49.17. Watching how aggressively packers slaughter
hogs through the next couple of months will greatly determine how much longer
we have to chat about the backlog of hogs. But with the next big holiday being
Labor Day, the marketplace is going to need household consumer demand to be
extraordinary, and hopefully restaurants can continue to stay open with
concerns about more COVID-19 cases popping up.
The projected lean hog index for 7/1/2020 is down $0.26 at $45.02 and the
actual index for 6/30/2020 is up $0.04 at $45.28. Hog prices are unavailable on
the National Direct Morning Hog Report due to packer submission problems. Pork
cutouts totaled 217.42 loads with 189.92 loads of pork cuts and 27.49 loads of
trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.59, $68.05.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2020 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 07/06 13:46
DTN Closing Grain Comments 07/06 13:46 Row Crops Higher as Forecast Remains Mostly Dry New-crop contracts of corn and soybeans closed higher again Monday, starting the week with a forecast that remains mostly dry, especially in the eastern Midwest. All three U.S. wheat contracts also finished higher, but lacked strong bullish reasons.
DTN Chart Technical Points 07/06 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 07/06 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 7/06/20 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT JUL 489.50 492.06 486.86 490.47 503.43 47.67 45.69 44.36 78 83 38 27 CBTWT SEP 493.25 493.94 489.22 494.25 507.02 48.24 45.62 43.98 81 81 36 24 KC WT JUL 432.75 434.50 431.56 435.64 451.79 46.36 44.45 44.04 63 68 29 20 KC WT SEP 438.50 438.75 437.81 443.00 458.93 44.53 42.77 43.11 53 57 25 18 MN WT JUL 499.00 502.81 505.42 511.82 513.92 38.01 40.09 42.98 35 42 21 17 MN WT SEP 512.75 515.19 516.25 522.89 525.04 39.41 41.15 43.66 36 43 20 14 CORN JUL 346.50 343.94 331.72 330.65 325.18 68.49 65.25 56.92 85 86 82 58 CORN SEP 346.50 345.50 334.06 334.25 329.52 64.27 61.82 55.19 81 83 78 55 CORN DEC 356.25 355.19 342.14 342.46 338.71 64.64 62.07 55.73 84 85 80 53 OATS JUL 339.75 337.25 326.14 318.14 316.06 71.88 66.41 62.16 94 91 78 58 OATS SEP 284.75 288.75 291.25 288.49 284.07 40.85 46.68 52.06 14 25 61 69 BEANS JUL 898.50 892.25 879.50 875.07 858.31 78.31 72.60 60.66 88 81 83 77 BEANS AUG 898.50 890.00 876.39 873.83 859.03 77.83 72.09 60.56 90 84 81 70 BEANS SEP 899.00 889.31 874.61 872.86 859.22 76.67 71.53 60.93 89 83 79 66 S MEAL JUL 295.40 291.98 287.67 287.94 287.37 71.14 64.76 54.50 92 83 68 42 S MEAL AUG 297.80 294.65 290.29 290.37 289.31 72.25 66.06 55.79 90 83 68 43 B OIL JUL 28.42 28.14 27.86 27.92 27.39 61.12 58.91 53.78 85 78 64 46 B OIL AUG 28.54 28.28 28.03 28.10 27.57 60.24 58.29 53.51 81 75 61 45 CATTLE AUG 100.10 98.27 97.24 96.65 97.29 71.04 62.97 54.65 79 67 72 53 CATTLE OCT 103.93 101.75 100.63 99.84 100.30 76.28 67.02 56.01 83 73 81 64 FEEDER AUG 136.15 134.24 133.60 132.96 132.86 68.33 61.62 54.08 74 62 73 61 FEEDER SEP 137.23 135.12 134.63 134.15 134.09 67.28 61.05 53.97 75 60 67 57 HOGS JUL 44.95 44.91 45.56 47.97 54.11 24.02 27.50 34.24 19 14 2 3 HOGS AUG 49.28 49.14 49.80 51.80 55.55 33.40 35.23 38.35 51 39 14 11 COTTON JUL 63.07 62.42 61.82 61.24 59.28 63.72 61.80 57.20 100 77 71 64 COTTON OCT 63.57 62.92 61.41 60.70 59.11 74.38 68.80 59.67 94 94 86 72 RICE JUL 16.42 15.85 14.69 14.88 16.00 62.10 56.00 53.48 43 36 23 11 RICE SEP 12.20 12.27 12.30 12.19 12.14 46.94 49.50 51.24 69 71 61 60
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 07/06 16:15
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 07/06 16:15 Livestock Support Remained Through Closing Livestock contracts were able to keep support through Monday's close as all three markets rallied at the start of a new week. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: As perplexing as it may be, all three livestock markets rallied through Monday's closing. Cattle contracts closed with the biggest rally, but the deferred lean hog contracts weren't all that far behind. Hog prices are unavailable on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report due to packer submission problems. September corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 459.67 points and NASDAQ is up 226.02 points.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 07/06 16:10
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 07/06/20
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,308 WEEK TO DATE: 1,308
STEERS LIVE FOB
974 93.00-95.00 93.00-95.00 94.14
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 649 WEEK TO DATE: 649
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
527 160.00-160.00 160.00-160.00 160.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
122 160.00-160.00 160.00-160.00 160.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 2,567 WEEK TO DATE: 2,567
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
2,196 160.00-160.00 160.00-160.00 160.00
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
171 160.00-160.00 160.00-160.00 160.00
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Monday's cash cattle trade was mostly quiet as just a few
cattle sold and packers were mostly calling around seeing what was available
and if prices had been established. Some steers sold in Kansas for $95
(steady with the upper end of last week's trade) for immediately delivery to
be killed this week. Bids and asking prices have yet to be established.
Showlists this week are higher in Kansas, somewhat higher in Texas and lower
in Colorado and Nebraska.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $ 94.87(1435) HIDE&OFFAL: $6.84 Unchgd
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $146.24 $135.74 99,259
BOX BASED $193.46 $184.97 63,206
AVE INDEX $169.85 -0.36 $160.36 -0.35 162,465
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$205.46 +0.02 $196.97 -1.79
91.91 LDS CH CUTS / 24.67 LDS SEL CUTS / 21.04 LDS TRIM / 31.79 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Not available due to technical difficulties
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 07/03 $206.82 -350
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $196.48 -2.54
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 93.85 lds / Shrply lr on lt dem & hvy offers
90% TRIM: 22 lds: Wtd Avg $249.98 / Firm to higher
FI KILL(WTD) FRI 109(593) WK AGO 119(598) YR AGO 118(484)
SAT 0 (593) WK AGO 82 (680) YR AGO 93 (578) MIX: THUR SH97/CB24
MON 119 (0) WK AGO 121 (0) YR AGO 119 (0) MIX: FRI SH93/CB16
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 06/20/20 559 9,674
Week Ending: 06/13/20 880 8,274
Change from prev week: -321 +1,400
