DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/15 11:33
DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/15 11:33 Grain Trading Mixed at Midday Soybeans lead at midday with trade fading from overnight strength. Wheat is scoring fresh lows at midday due to absence of positive news. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 310 points higher. The interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 10 points higher. Energies are firmer with crude up $1.05. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $3.80. CORN Corn trade is flat to a penny lower with trade looking to reestablish footing going into the three-day weekend for Presidents Day and spillover pressure from wheat. The second crop in Brazil is being planted in good condition for now with planting heading towards the halfway point with early rains looking to be good for germination. The energy complex is maintaining recent gains to support ethanol a little more in the near term with better seasonal action getting close, but ethanol futures are a penny lower this morning. Corn basis should firm again with more weather disruptions. The daily wire remained active on corn with 205,744 metric tons of corn sold to unknown. On the March chart trade is just below the resistance clustered at $3.77-$3.79 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73 3/8, and the then low at $3.71 3/4. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday moving back towards the middle of the weekly range. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along. Crush margins remain strong with meal holding $300 a ton or better still, with basis likely to remain steady to firmer on weather and the futures pull back. Trade talks will continue in the U.S. next week with some progress scored this week. On the March chart resistance is now the moving averages clustered at $9.13-9.15 which we just below, and then the $9.01 support level from the early session lows. WHEAT Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents lower with spread trade firming for the Chicago intramonth spreads as well, with KC the weak side of the contract spreads today. The U.S. has seen better export business lately, but world prices have followed the U.S. selloff the last couple of days. The dollar rally has resumed with new highs scored overnight. Cold weather is expected to keep some stress on the Plains in the near term with winter wanting to hang around. On the March Kansas City chart, support is low at $4.72 with resistance the 10-day at $4.95. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (BAS) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/15 12:00
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/15 12:00 Sharp Losses Sweep Through Feeder Cattle Limited buying is slowly stepping into live cattle and feeder cattle trade midday Thursday. This is creating additional market support through the entire complex. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst General Comments Strong market pressure has quickly flooded into feeder cattle markets, which is affecting the movement and direction of live cattle trade. Hog futures are firming based on short covering at the end of the week. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 1 3/4 cents lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 347 points higher with Nasdaq up 26 points. LIVE CATTLE: Firm pressure developed Friday morning through the complex with traders looking for increased underlying pressure in feeder cattle trade. The strength in beef values at the end of the week is being overlooked by traders attention to triple-digit losses in these feeder cattle futures. Limited direction is expected through the rest of the complex with traders looking for additional outside market shifts. Cash cattle trade still remains quiet although bids are becoming more evident through the morning. Bids are holding at $122 live in the North and South, while dressed bids are developing at $198 to $199 per cwt. This is still a long ways from asking prices, and unlikely to gain interested sellers at this point. Asking prices remain at $126 to $127 live and $202 to $204 dressed. It may be late afternoon before deals are made. Cattle are priced at $126 to $127 per cwt, while dressed prices are listed at $203 to $205 per cwt. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.09 higher (select) and up $0.87 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 58 total loads reported (35 loads of choice cuts, 5 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 14 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: Triple-digit losses have quickly expanded Friday morning as traders focus on uncertainty in the grain markets and the growing expectations that a deal will develop with China. Any grain market deal with China will be bearish for feeder cattle on a short-term basis at least, as this will likely increase production costs in the entire cattle complex. Even though nearby futures have backed away from session lows, the potential to break below February lows is adding weakness to the complex. LEAN HOGS: End-of-week short covering has been the main agenda of traders which continue to focus on bearish fundamentals, but are covering positions at the end of the week. With trade closed Monday for Presidents day, the focus on maintaining recent support levels is sparking renewed buyer interest in nearby trade. Nearby futures are holding 30 to 60 cent gains, while narrowly mixed moves in deferred trade is keeping additional volume on the sidelines. Cash prices are unreported on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices unreported on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values rallied higher on the morning report with prices adding $2.08 per cwt at $64.84 per cwt with 177 loads traded. Lean hog index for 2/13 is $55.24, down $0.31, with a projected two-day index is delayed due to packer submission problems. Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 02/15 13:40
DTN Closing Grain Comments 02/15 13:40 Wheat Continues Rapid Slide; Corn, Soybeans Stabilize A combination of fund and technical selling following Thursday's sharply lower close, a firm U.S. dollar, and weakening European and Russian wheat values have combined to send wheat lower again Friday, with Kansas City reaching new contract lows. Corn and soybeans in dull trade finished little changed and just above the uptrend line. Positive news from China trade talks was tempered as that discussion continues next week in the U.S.
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 02/15 15:42
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 02/15 15:42 Lean Hog Futures Rally Friday Lean hog futures settled mostly higher Friday as traders adjusted positions before exiting the market for the long weekend. Meanwhile, feeder cattle futures saw sharp losses. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Wide-ranging price swings were seen throughout livestock trade Friday before the long weekend. Markets will remain closed Monday due to Presidents day, and will return to normal schedules Tuesday morning. Hog futures rallied Friday, with April leading the charge as traders covered short positions and distanced prices from long-term support levels. Cattle trade got caught up in the drama of lower feeder cattle futures. Traders have various concerns about trade and outside markets. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Feb LC off $0.75; Apr LC off $0.75; Mar FC off $1.50; Apr FC off $0.68; Apr LH up $4.48 and May LH up $2.05. Cash cattle trade remained generally sluggish at midafternoon Friday. Another round of late-afternoon or evening trade was expected. Bids were hovering in the same pattern as seen the rest of the week, at $122 live and $198 to $200 dressed. Asking prices were not budging, and were holding at $126 to $127 live and $202 to $204 dressed. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.21 lower ($44.50-$48.78, weighted average $48.51) on 4,379 head sold. Corn futures were mixed in light activity with the March unchanged from Thursday. The Dow Jones Index was 445 points higher with the Nasdaq up 45 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 02/18 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 02/18 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 2/18/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAR 504.25 513.38 517.28 518.79 518.45 32.51 38.15 43.67 29 38 32 43 CBTWT MAY 507.00 516.31 520.03 523.03 523.89 31.00 36.45 42.34 28 38 26 34 KC WT MAR 476.50 486.00 494.31 500.68 502.84 22.95 30.50 38.86 17 19 12 20 KC WT MAY 484.50 492.56 500.67 508.56 512.71 23.28 29.94 37.99 20 21 12 15 MN WT MAR 573.00 576.19 573.31 573.35 569.73 50.15 50.93 49.16 56 69 65 59 MN WT MAY 567.00 569.88 571.17 573.99 573.14 38.09 42.21 44.54 28 33 22 25 CORN MAR 374.75 376.63 376.75 377.72 378.58 43.39 45.27 47.36 47 50 38 41 CORN MAY 382.75 384.69 384.78 386.01 386.68 42.85 44.92 47.30 51 54 38 39 CORN JUL 390.50 392.38 392.50 393.78 394.13 42.90 45.04 47.58 50 52 37 39 OATS MAR 275.75 281.63 284.22 285.79 285.73 31.45 37.00 44.25 9 21 18 26 OATS MAY 280.75 285.50 286.86 287.10 285.91 36.71 41.37 46.64 20 30 44 52 BEANS MAR 907.50 911.25 913.31 916.15 911.49 43.97 46.51 49.55 36 46 43 53 BEANS MAY 921.50 925.44 927.44 930.14 924.94 43.98 46.62 49.69 36 46 45 54 BEANS JUL 935.00 938.75 940.89 943.21 937.51 44.26 46.92 49.96 36 46 46 56 S MEAL MAR 306.50 307.83 307.37 309.61 312.17 41.63 42.55 45.35 48 58 22 15 S MEAL MAY 310.50 311.88 311.39 313.59 315.88 41.72 42.79 45.89 50 59 23 15 B OIL MAR 29.95 30.04 30.37 30.18 29.13 48.19 53.14 54.89 11 14 66 79 B OIL MAY 30.28 30.38 30.70 30.50 29.42 48.50 53.51 55.18 11 15 67 80 CATTLE FEB 126.63 126.38 126.68 126.23 124.89 53.99 55.24 56.53 26 33 60 66 CATTLE APR 127.18 127.35 127.47 127.21 126.27 49.88 52.30 55.03 28 42 51 53 FEEDER MAR 142.60 143.65 143.74 143.75 144.39 40.37 43.28 45.66 38 55 60 62 FEEDER APR 145.23 146.11 145.80 145.46 145.50 46.57 48.47 48.72 60 75 84 79 HOGS APR 59.53 59.58 59.77 61.05 64.85 40.29 38.48 39.89 42 45 16 12 HOGS MAY 68.45 68.43 67.99 68.48 71.48 47.59 44.24 43.18 62 64 31 21 COTTON MAR 70.22 70.00 71.44 72.61 73.48 30.28 34.40 38.84 13 8 7 13 COTTON MAY 71.86 71.52 72.78 73.96 74.82 33.36 36.06 39.43 19 11 9 12 RICE MAR 10.00 10.17 10.35 10.51 10.55 17.69 25.90 36.34 5 3 2 11 RICE MAY 10.09 10.32 10.53 10.71 10.73 14.09 22.85 34.81 4 3 1 14
DTN Early Word Grains 02/19 06:02
DTN Early Word Grains 02/19 06:02 Mixed Trade as Markets Await Data, Trade-Talk Breakthrough March corn is down 1/4 cents per bushel, March soybeans are up 3/4 cents, and March K.C. wheat is down 2 3/4 cents.. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn is down 1/4 cents per bushel, March soybeans are up 3/4 cents, and March K.C. wheat is down 2 3/4 cents. CME Globex Recap: Global equities are mixed to lower Tuesday morning, but mostly holding recent gains as investors await a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Talks move back to Washington D.C. this week with both sides optimistic towards a deal. U.S. officials have reiterated the plan for a 60-day extension of the March 1 tariff deadline, allowing both sides some additional breathing room. A flair up between the U.S. and European Union over trade this past weekend is the last thing markets need. Grains are mixed to weaker, awaiting another big round of data on Thursday and Friday with backlogged export sales and the USDA Outlook Forum. The focus is shifting to new crop quickly for traders and producers alike. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Friday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 443.86 at 25,883.25 and the S&P 500 up 29.87 at 2,745.73 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 2.666%. Early Tuesday, the March DJIA futures are down 43 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 20.8 (0.1%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 1.29 points (0.05%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 35.09 points (-0.49%), Germany's DAX down 1.7 points (-0.02%) and France's CAC 40 down 15.53 points (-0.3%). The March Euro is up 0.001 at 1.130 and the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.010 at 96.730. The March 30-Year T-Bond is up 2/32nds, while April gold is up $10.20 at $1,332.30 and March crude oil is up $0.39 at $55.98. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.44% while soybean meal was down -0.12%.
US Direct Feeder Pigs 02/19
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 02/19 05:57
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 02/19 05:57 Limited Volume Focusing on Mixed Price Direction Traders moving back into the complex following the long holiday weekend will add some uncertainty to the market after price shifts late last week. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $144.22 +0.55* Hogs: Steady to $1 Lower Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 67.48 +0.22** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cash cattle activity last week developed late Friday afternoon, going into the evening, with prices steady with the week before. Live trade developed at $125 per cwt in the South while dressed trade in the North was seen at $199 to $200, mostly at $200, again fully steady with the previous week. Both sides started over again Monday with showlists mixed, although bids and asking prices are yet to develop, and will not likely develop until midweek or later. Futures are expected to remain mixed in limited trade. The sharp pressure in feeder cattle trade late last week will be watched in morning trade as traders are expected to be focusing just as much or more on outside market direction than any development in beef fundamentals.
DTN Cattle Prices 02/19 09:00
WEEKLY CASH CATTLE 02/19 09:00 WEEKLY DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE - FOR THE WEEK ENDING: 02/15 WT AV LV % CH PRICE RANGE VOLUME WT AV DR % CH PRICE RANGE VOL KANSAS FORMULA/FORWARD 78,051 / WTD 19,949 / WEEKLY TOTAL 98,000 STEERS - LIVE FOB STEERS - DRESSED DELIVERED 124.96 TOTAL 123.00-125.00 9,981 200.00 80+ 200.00-200.00 40 STEERS - LIVE DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED DELIVERED 124.90 TOTAL 123.50-125.00 4,073 No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade NEBRASKA FORMULA/FORWARD 46,162 / WTD 33,872 / WEEKLY TOTAL 80,034 STEERS - LIVE FOB STEERS - DRESSED DELIVERED 125.00 TOTAL 124.50-125.00 14,565 200.01 TOTAL 199.00-204.00 7,210 STEERS - LIVE DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED FOB 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 220 199.50 TOTAL 199.00-200.00 423 HEIFERS - LIVE FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED DELIVERED 124.96 TOTAL 124.00-125.00 4,018 200.00 TOTAL 200.00-200.00 3,344 HEIFERS - LIVE DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED FOB 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 452 199.00 TOTAL 199.00-199.00 80 TEXAS FORMULA/FORWARD 80,455 / WTD 4,751 / WEEKLY TOTAL 85,206 STEERS - LIVE FOB STEERS - DRESSED DELIVERED 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 2,333 No reportable trade STEERS - LIVE DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED FOB 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 246 No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED DELIVERED 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 745 No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED FOB 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 91 No reportable trade SEE FRIDAY'S DAILY DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE NEGOTIATED PURCHASES SUMMARIES BELOW DTN COMMENTS: Formula totals for last week were mixed, larger in Nebraska, but smaller in Kansas and Texas: KS 78,051(-4,159), NE 46,162(+2,035), TX 80,455(-1,132). Total trade volume was higher in all three major feeding states: KS 98,000(+1,710), NE 80,034(+4,551), TX 85,206(+1,463). New showlists appear to be about steady in Colorado, but smaller in Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas. The country is quiet this morning with bids and asking prices not established as of yet. Significant trade volume will likely be delayed until the second half of the week. Beef cutouts are expected to be higher today with light to moderate box movement. DAILY DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE-NEGOTIATED PURCHASES-SUMMARY **Summary includes trade from 1:30 PM the previous day through 9:30 AM today.** KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 33,040 WEEK TO DATE: 33,872 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 124.99 80+ 124.50-125.00 7,514 200.08 80+ 199.00-204.00 5,755 125.00 65-80 125.00-125.00 7,051 200.00 65-80 200.00-200.00 1,020 125.00 TOTAL 124.50-125.00 14,565 200.07 TOTAL 199.00-204.00 6,775 STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB 125.00 80+ 125.00-125.00 25 200.00 80+ 200.00-200.00 210 125.00 65-80 125.00-125.00 195 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 220 200.00 TOTAL 200.00-200.00 210 HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 124.95 80+ 124.00-125.00 3,608 200.00 80+ 200.00-200.00 2,133 125.00 65-80 125.00-125.00 410 200.00 65-80 200.00-200.00 1,211 124.96 TOTAL 124.00-125.00 4,018 200.00 TOTAL 200.00-200.00 3,344 HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB 125.00 80+ 125.00-125.00 452 No reportable trade 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 452 TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 4,751 WEEK TO DATE: 4,751 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 125.00 80+ 125.00-125.00 124 No reportable trade 125.00 65-80 125.00-125.00 980 125.00 35-65 125.00-125.00 1,229 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 2,333 STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 125.00 65-80 125.00-125.00 555 No reportable trade 125.00 35-65 125.00-125.00 702 125.00 TOTAL 125.00-125.00 1,257 HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Confident STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED Not Reported Due to Confidentiality No reportable trade STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED Not Reported Due to Confidentiality No reportable trade HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB No reportable trade No reportable trade IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 12,016 WEEK TO DATE: 20,725 STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 125.05 80+ 124.00-126.00 2,535 199.90 80+ 199.00-201.00 3,221 124.56 65-80 123.00-125.00 690 200.00 65-80 200.00-200.00 390 124.95 TOTAL 123.00-126.00 3,225 199.91 TOTAL 199.00-201.00 3,611 STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB 126.21 80+ 125.00-127.00 388 200.42 80+ 200.00-200.50 253 126.21 TOTAL 125.00-127.00 388 200.42 TOTAL 200.00-200.50 253 HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED 124.83 80+ 122.00-126.00 1,494 199.93 80+ 199.00-201.00 779 124.83 TOTAL 122.00-126.00 1,494 199.93 TOTAL 199.00-201.00 779 HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB 127.06 80+ 126.50-128.00 233 No reportable trade 127.06 TOTAL 126.50-128.00 233 Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at 1-800-369-7675 or 1-402-399-6402. All sales will be listed anonymously and organized by state. General trends and summaries from this data will also be posted on the Daily Sales Reported to DTN page.
