DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/31 15:26
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 01/31 15:26 Tuesday's Cattle Inventory Report Didn't Disappoint Come Wednesday both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are expected to trade higher as traders finally have the opportunity to trade the bullish nature of Tuesday's Cattle Inventory Report. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS The market's main focus throughout all of Tuesday's trading hours was the Cattle Inventory Report and it came out extremely bullish. Come Wednesday both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are expected to trade significantly higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.77 with a weighted average of $70.85 on 7,747 head. March corn is down 4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 324.56 points.
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/31 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 01/31 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 1/31/23 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAR 761.25 754.06 743.11 742.86 755.24 59.79 53.78 47.71 80 82 45 33 CBTWT MAY 770.50 762.94 751.42 751.04 763.99 60.76 54.30 47.77 82 83 47 33 KC WT MAR 878.75 871.63 851.39 842.93 856.21 63.86 57.75 51.06 89 89 69 50 KC WT MAY 871.75 864.75 845.36 837.94 850.66 63.91 57.66 50.80 89 89 69 49 MN WT MAR 922.25 920.81 911.14 908.24 915.99 58.02 53.76 49.58 84 84 61 45 MN WT MAY 915.50 913.94 904.75 902.54 910.44 58.42 53.70 48.88 83 83 66 47 CORN MAR 679.75 682.25 677.83 671.31 663.72 56.81 56.41 54.04 75 79 80 72 CORN MAY 677.50 679.69 675.72 669.78 663.06 56.57 56.14 53.75 75 80 79 72 CORN JUL 665.25 666.63 663.94 660.00 656.07 54.19 53.83 52.12 67 73 68 61 OATS MAR 394.00 390.00 380.33 367.19 359.77 80.48 70.95 57.75 89 89 93 90 OATS MAY 387.25 383.38 374.06 362.43 356.64 79.61 70.24 56.94 93 90 94 91 BEANS MAR1538.001526.561512.081508.281489.78 62.99 60.42 57.52 85 79 67 51 BEANS MAY1530.251519.751506.941506.851492.69 61.75 59.03 56.54 86 79 59 42 BEANS JUL1518.751509.691498.171502.401492.98 59.21 56.78 55.22 86 79 47 32 S MEAL MAR 484.20 480.88 471.73 473.27 456.51 61.87 60.93 60.02 84 80 72 56 S MEAL MAY 468.50 465.45 457.56 458.44 447.30 62.08 60.52 59.26 85 83 73 54 B OIL MAR 62.33 61.27 61.53 62.31 63.58 51.26 47.73 47.23 63 38 17 11 B OIL MAY 62.49 61.45 61.62 62.22 63.08 53.63 49.70 48.51 68 42 20 12 CATTLE FEB 158.85 157.76 157.39 157.39 156.59 64.79 60.96 57.33 76 64 63 53 CATTLE APR 163.02 161.93 161.13 161.04 160.38 65.41 62.18 58.92 81 75 73 59 FEEDER MAR 186.15 184.10 183.12 183.82 184.45 63.46 57.83 53.63 82 80 50 42 FEEDER APR 190.05 188.22 187.56 188.15 188.27 62.57 57.84 54.18 78 73 50 43 HOGS FEB 74.88 75.73 76.54 78.04 83.16 21.91 28.27 36.85 7 18 3 4 HOGS APR 86.43 86.60 85.85 87.30 90.82 41.08 40.15 42.83 59 65 20 15 COTTON MAR 86.22 86.43 86.23 85.07 83.78 54.69 54.28 52.19 32 47 72 73 COTTON MAY 86.95 87.04 86.77 85.42 83.80 56.53 55.86 53.29 34 49 75 77 RICE MAR 17.83 18.14 18.13 18.02 17.88 39.57 44.96 49.05 34 61 71 73 RICE MAY 18.19 18.47 18.44 18.32 18.14 41.65 46.68 50.40 21 57 78 78
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 02/01 06:15
DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 02/01 06:15 Cattle Futures Expected Higher -- Maybe Live cattle held the line with traders hesitant to push the market higher prior to the release of the inventory report. Feeder cattle did not hesitate to post gains due to lower corn. Hogs could not find aggressive buyer interest, leaving futures mixed at the end of the day as traders waited for some news. Robin Schmahl DTN Contributing Analyst Cattle: Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $198.57 -$0.75* Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $88.06 -$0.03** *Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue. GENERAL COMMENTS: Even though the trade believed the Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory report would show reduced cow and calf numbers, they hesitated to push the market higher. They needed proof and waited for the report. The report supported what was anticipated. The beef cow herd totaled 28.918 million head, which was down 4.0% from a year ago. This was closely in line with what had been estimated and is the lowest beef cow herd on record. With the actual being near the estimated, the market may already have it factored in, leaving little reason for futures to increase very much. However, the initial reaction will likely see higher trade. Heifers for beef cow replacement declined 6.0%, totaling 5.164 million head. The 2022 calf crop totaled 34.465 million head, which was above the estimate of 34.173 million head. Boxed beef Tuesday was mixed with choice down $2.01 and select up $1.40. Cash did not trade with asking prices posted in the South at $158 and higher. Feeder cattle did not hesitate to move higher into the report and from the weakness of corn futures.
DTN Early Word Grains 02/01 05:37
DTN Early Word Grains 02/01 05:37 Crop Prices Lower Early Wednesday, Next Rate Hike On the Way March corn is down 4 cents, March soybeans are down 2 cents and March KC wheat is down 3 cents. Todd Hultman DTN Lead Analyst EARLY MORNING GLOBEX NET CHANGES: March corn is down 4 cents, March soybeans are down 2 cents and March KC wheat is down 3 cents. CME GLOBEX RECAP: Early Wednesday, stock futures in the U.S. were trading lower, while stocks in Europe and Asia were slightly higher. At 1 p.m. CST, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase the federal funds rate target by at least a quarter-percent, possibly more as inflation remains well above the 2% target. OPEC meets Wednesday and is expected to keep oil production levels unchanged. Several manufacturing indices were released overnight, nearly all showing contraction in December. ISM's index of U.S. manufacturing will be out at 9 a.m. CST, followed by the U.S. Energy Department's weekly report of energy inventories, including ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. First quarter earnings continue in full stride and include a report from Corteva, among many others. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Tuesday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 368.95 at 34,086.04 and the S&P 500 up 58.83 at 4,076.60. The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 3.55%, up from the lowest yields in four months. Early Tuesday, March Dow Jones futures are down 151 points. Asian markets are a little higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 0.07% and China's Shanghai Composite Index up 0.90%. European markets are similar with the spot futures of the London FTSE 100 trading up 0.05%, spot futures of Germany's DAX trading up 0.11% and spot futures of France's CAC Index trading down 0.02%. The March euro is up $0.0022 at $1.0915. The March U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.15 at 101.77. The March 30-year T-bond is up 25/32nds, while April gold is down $4.40 at $1,925.10 and March crude oil is down $0.04 at $78.83. On China's Dalian exchange, March corn was down 1.0%, March soybeans were down 1.2%, May soybean meal was down 0.8% and May soybean oil was down 0.8%. April Malaysian palm oil is trading down 3.2%.
National Lean Hog Values 09/01
DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/01 11:02
DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/01 11:02 Corn, Soybeans Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower; beans are 17 to 19 cents lower, and wheat trade is 8 cents lower to 4 cents higher. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 245 points. The dollar index is 40 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude down 0.70 and natural gas down 0.11. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are flat with gold unchanged. CORN: Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to the lower end of the recent range with soft spread action and little fresh news. Ethanol margins have support from natural gas while blender margins tighten again as unleaded fades from the recent highs with the weekly report showing production up by 15,000 barrels per day, with stocks down 635,000 barrels. Crop development will continue to be watched with mixed Argentina rains and double crop planting in Brazil about to get going. The daily export wire has been quiet to start the week. Basis has stabilized in the west with above average action holding up overall. On the March chart, support is at the $6.70 20-day moving average with the upper Bollinger Band at $6.94 the next round up, which we have faded from last week with a fresh high for the move being scored at $6.88 3/4, which we tested Tuesday. SOYBEANS: Soybeans are 17 to 19 cents lower at midday with better South American progress and demand questions up front as trade fades back from the upper end of the range. Meal is 0.50 to 1.50 lower, and oil is 145 to 155 points lower. The daily export wire has remained quiet as we watch for more action from China as they return from holiday. South American weather should help stabilize the Argentina crop with Brazil harvest pace to lag a little bit. Basis remains mostly sideways near term. March chart support is at the $15.08 20-day which we remain solidly above, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $15.50. WHEAT: Wheat trade is 8 cents lower to 4 cents higher with trade consolidating recent gains at the upper end of the range with little fresh news to push action this AM with KC and Minneapolis taking the lead. Matif wheat values are a bit softer as well. On the chart, KC March has support at the 20-day moving average at $8.44 which we are solidly above, with the recent high at $8.95 as resistance with the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.82 which we are just below at midday. David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/01 11:51
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/01 11:51 Wednesday Brings Weaker Tones to All Livestock Contracts Heading into Wednesday's afternoon, the market is going to look for fundamental support as its technicals are enduring immense pressure. ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Despite seeing an extremely bullish Cattle Inventory report Tuesday afternoon, the entire livestock complex is trading lower into Wednesday's afternoon. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 352.96 points. LIVE CATTLE: I once had a market mentor tell me, "whenever people in the market all believe one thing is going to happen, the market will indeed do the opposite." After Tuesday's extremely bullish Cattle Inventory report came out, most believed that Wednesday's market would trade higher and that this could indeed be the rallying factor that the market needed. But come Wednesday morning, my mentor stood correct once again. February live cattle are down $0.42 at $158.42, April live cattle are down $0.87 at $162.15 and June live cattle are down $0.65 at $158.50. After running to new contract highs on Monday, it's somewhat understandable that the live cattle contracts aren't challenging that new high Wednesday. But more than anything, it seems as though traders are apprehensive and need time to absorb Tuesday's report, and will likely turn the markets higher later in time. The cash cattle market hasn't seen an ounce of interest and it's likely that this week's market won't trade until Thursday or Friday. The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported 60 lots (all lots in TX), totaling 974 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $155, bids were at $155.50, but they did not meet reserve prices of $158. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.33 ($264.76) and select down $0.98 ($251.94) with a movement of 84 loads (57.08 loads of choice, 7.66 loads of select, 10.04 loads of trim and 8.84 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The feeder cattle contracts are too trading lower despite the fact that nearby corn contracts are trading lower and that Tuesday's Cattle Inventory report was extremely bullish. March feeders are down $3.07 at $183.07, April feeders are down $2.45 at $187.60 and May feeders are down $1.90 at $192.07. The feeder cattle complex will continue to look at this week's cash cattle market and to the sales that develop in the countryside for support as it's evident that Wednesday's technicals aren't going to provide any support. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex is continuing to run lower as the market endures immense technical pressure. February lean hogs are down $0.62 at $74.25, April lean hogs are down $2.90 at $83.50 and June lean hogs are down $2.07 at $100.97. Unfortunately, with all of the livestock contracts enduring this type of rigorously down pressure, it's likely that, regardless of whatever the market's fundamentals accomplish Wednesday afternoon, it won't be enough to offset the technical downturn. The projected lean hog index for Jan. 31 is down $0.07 at $72.51 and the actual index for Jan. 30 is down $0.13 at $72.58. Hog prices are unavailable due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts total 167.05 loads with 144.77 loads of pork cuts and 17.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.29, $79.96. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 02/01 13:48
DTN Closing Grain Comments 02/01 13:48 Soybeans and Bean Oil Plunge on Weak Outsides; Corn Recovers The entire grain and soy complex proceeded to take it on the chin early on the first day of February. With more rain showers falling in Argentina in coming days, and with more talk or recession fears ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, the sellers came out in force. However, by the end of the day, corn and wheat had recovered, with only beans and oil finishing sharply lower. Dana Mantini Senior Market Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: March corn closed up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May corn was up 2 cents. March soybeans closed down 17 3/4 cents and May soybeans were down 13 3/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 5 1/2 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 1 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4 cents. The March U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.265 at 101.650. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 330.51 points at 33,755.53. April gold is down $4.70 at $1,940.60, March silver is down $0.24 at $23.60 and March copper is down $0.1090 at $4.1170. March crude oil is down $2.46 at $76.41, March heating oil is down $0.1915, March RBOB is down $0.1177 and March natural gas is down $0.206.
DTN Cattle Prices/Trends 02/01 13:55
DTN CATTLE PRICES/TRENDS 02/01 13:55
HEAD SOLD LIVE STEERS DRESSED LIVE HEIFERS DRESSED
KANSAS . . . . .
NEBRASKA . . . . .
TEXAS . . . . .
COLORADO . . . . .
IOWA . . . . .
*PRIVATE SOURCES
DTN COMMENTS: All remains quiet in the country this afternoon with bids
nowhere to be found. Asking prices are around $158 to $160 in the South, but
still not established in the North. Significant trade volume will likely be
delayed until Thursday and/or Friday.
The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held today reported 60 lots (all lots in TX),
totaling 974 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $155,
bids were at $155.50, but they did not meet reserve prices of $158.
Today's slaughter totaled 127,000 head, even with last week, but 7,000 greater
than a year ago. Live cattle futures closed mostly moderately lower, off 35 to
80. Feeder contracts ended the day sharply lower, off 135 to 290. Beef cutouts
are expected to close lower with good box movement.
DAILY DIRECT SLAUGHTER CATTLE-NEGOTIATED PURCHASES-SUMMARY
**Summary includes trade from 1:30 PM the previous day through 9:30 AM today.**
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality
STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality
HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB
NA Due to Confidentiality NA Due to Confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES: 34 WEEK TO DATE: 137
STEERS - LIVE - FOB STEERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
STEERS - LIVE - DELIVERED STEERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - FOB HEIFERS - DRESSED - DELIVERED
No reportable trade No reportable trade
HEIFERS - LIVE - DELIVERED HEIFERS - DRESSED - FOB
No reportable trade No reportable trade
NOTE: Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at
1-800-369-7675, ext. 3678. All sales will be listed anonymously and
organized by state. All live sales are FOB and set for 1-9-day delivery. A
weekly summary from this data will be posted on the Weekly Cattle Sales
Reported to DTN page.
