US Direct Feeder Pigs 12/09
DTN Early Word Grains 12/10 05:58
DTN Early Word Grains 12/10 05:58 Grains Weaker as Trade Agreements Eyed March corn is up 1/4 cent, January soybeans are down 1/2 cent, and March KC wheat is down 1 1/2 cents. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn is up 1/4 cent, January soybeans are down 1/2 cent, and March KC wheat is down 1 1/2 cents. CME Globex Recap: Global equity markets are weaker overnight, particularly in Europe, with analysts pointing toward softer Chinese export data and the looming tariff deadline. Chinese exports fell 1.1% in November, the fourth consecutive monthly drop, with exports to the U.S. down 23%, the worst result since February and the twelfth consecutive monthly drop. More salient to us seems to be comments suggesting the tariff deadline of December 15 will get moved further down the road, allowing more negotiation time. With the USMCA expected to be signed later Tuesday in Mexico City, deal making could be in the air. Nothing trade related is giving grain markets much of a boost as bears continue to point to the fact the USMCA and any potential deal with China would more than likely just solidify demand we already had as opposed to creating additional demand. Harvest continues to drag out in the Northern Plains and will do so well into 2020. With the excessively wet soil conditions, it looks more than likely a difficult spring lies ahead for many. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Monday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 105.46 at 27,909.60 and the S&P 500 down 9.95 at 3,145.91 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.829%. Early Tuesday, the December DJIA futures are down 114 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 20.51 (-0.09%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 2.84 points (0.1%). European markets are lower with London's FTSE 100 down 83.6 points (-1.16%), Germany's DAX down 181.48 points (-1.38%) and France's CAC 40 down 35.68 points (-0.84%). The December Euro is up 0.002 at 1.110 and the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.129 at 97.480. The March 30-Year T-Bond is up 16/32nds, while February gold is up $6.40 at $1,471.30 and January crude oil is down $0.31 at $58.71. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.2% while soybean meal was up 0.57%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 12/10 06:37
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 12/10 06:37 Sluggish Early Trade Points Toward Mixed Trade Tuesday Limited new direction is expected early Tuesday morning with the weaker undertone remaining across hog futures, while cattle trade is expected mixed in a narrow range. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $145.65 -0.55* Hogs: Steady to higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv $ 86.95 -0.10** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Despite the Christmas holiday just a couple of weeks away, cash cattle markets are following the weekly script with limited interest likely to develop early in the week. Packers continue to focus on increased overall cattle moving through the system following the higher cash cattle markets last week. Feedlot managers are likely to remain even more aggressive when cattle are priced the next couple of weeks in order to take advantage of the positive cash market momentum of the last several weeks. Both sides are abundantly aware of tighter supplies just around the corner, which gives packers incentive to put as much beef away at current or slightly higher cash prices as possible despite the eroding beef values. Cash cattle bids are not likely until midweek or later with a late week trade event likely at this point. Futures are expected mixed with traders potentially remaining a little too comfortable with the current trading range heading into the holiday season. With Christmas and New Year's holidays landing in the middle of the week, it is uncertain just how this will affect not only trade volume but overall market mentality through the end of the year. When holidays are in the beginning or end of the week, a "long weekend" is typical, but markets seem to be more disruptive during midweek holidays, with limited scattered trade throughout the week, rather than a couple of days. Cattle market direction still remains split between short- and long-term direction with nearby futures still concerned about current availability of market-ready cattle, while increased premium is being placed in the spring and summer contracts based on potential tighter supplies. Most of the supply tightness is expected to be limited to the first quarter, but current packing capacity could keep packers aggressive through the first half of the year, depending on demand support during early 2020. Tuesday slaughter runs are expected at 120,000 head.
DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/10 10:51
DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/10 10:51 Grains Mixed at Midday Soybeans lead quiet pre-report trade. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 10. The dollar index is 17 lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.24. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold up 2.00. CORN Corn trade is narrowly mixed with quiet trade at the lower end of the range continuing ahead of the report this a.m. On the report, production is expected to be unchanged from last month, with the domestic carryout at 1.919 billion up just slightly from last month. Ethanol margins have remained steady with corn and ethanol futures sideways, and unleaded at the upper end of the range overall boosting blender margins. Basis has held up well with some strength showing up at processors again. The last weekly report showed harvest at 92% complete vs. 100% on average. On the March contract, support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73 which we have held just above, with resistance the 20-day at $3.79. SOYBEANS Soybeans trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday, hanging right at $9.00 with trade trying to consolidate gains ahead of the report with reports of a delay in further tariffs with China. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. The real remains cheap vs. the dollar with Brazilian weather still in good shape, with Argentina more mixed short term and coming off a dry week. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with the futures rally likely to soften basis in some areas this week. On the WASDE report production is expected to be unchanged, with domestic carryout at 476 million bushels, inline with last month. January chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.65 which we are finally pulling away from, with trade just above the 20-day at $8.96, with the upper Bollinger Band at 9.27. WHEAT Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade seeing choppy action so far. The Chicago/KC March spread is back to 97 cents near the highs. Chicago also holding a 97 cent premium to Minneapolis which has narrowed to start the week. The dollar remains rangebound. Export business remains quiet with Russian values rising again and some midweek tenders. The forecast dries the Plains out short term, with little change to world conditions north and south this week. The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 1.01 billion, down just slightly from last month. The March KC chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $4.23, and resistance the 20-day at 4.33. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (AG) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/10 12:09
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/10 12:09 Live Cattle Trade Mixed While the Rest of Complex Trade Higher Live cattle contracts welcome Tuesday carefully while it appears that the rest of the complex is eager to trade modestly higher. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst General Comments Support seems to be building in the livestock arena as contracts look to trade higher as the noon hour approaches and anticipated higher cash cattle trade is expected. With Christmas only two weeks away, major business that needs to happen before the end of the year will need to take place this week and next. March corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and January soybean meal is down $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21.66 points and NASDAQ is up 7.88 points. LIVE CATTLE The live cattle market is still getting its head wrapped around the buzz of last week's slaughter and the last-minute cash cattle trade and is taking its sweet time trading Tuesday. December live cattle are down $0.02 at $120.15, February live cattle are up $0.07 at $124.82 and April live cattle are down $0.02 at $125.37. Cash trade is expected to trade modestly higher again this week, though no asking prices or bids have been placed yet this week. Last week trade didn't get underway until the Fed Cattle Exchange where the first of the week's trade took place. This week's line up of 1,068 head (all with one-to-nine-day delivery) with four pens from Nebraska, two pens from Kansas and one pen from Texas, trade may wait to see how the public auction fairs before a tone is established. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.50 ($223.14) and select is down $1.21 ($205.28) with a movement of 86 loads (58.36 loads of choice, 13.53 loads of select, 5.55 loads of trim and 8.15 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE Trading higher with encouragement from Monday's strong close, feeder cattle markets look higher surrounding the noon hour. January feeders are up $0.62 at $142.15, March feeders are up $0.62 at $142.90 and April feeders are up $0.57 at $144.72. LEAN HOGS The spot December lean hog contract trades most cautiously, while other lean hog contracts push prices well over $1.00 gains. December lean hogs are up steady at $60.00, February lean hogs are up $0.72 at $67.42 and April lean hogs are up $0.82 at $73.80. Given that cash prices are a tick stronger and that cutout values are much stronger - a positive undertone is building in the hog complex. The projected lean hog index for 12/06/19 is down $0.37 at $58.12, and the actual index for 12/05/19 9s up $0.15 at $58.49. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.35 with a weighted average of $47.41, ranging from $44.50 to $48.30 on 5,027 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $46.77. Pork cutouts total 239.36 loads with 223.37 loads of pork cuts and 15.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are higher, up $2.75 at $84.73. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (AG) Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/10 13:43
DTN Closing Grain Comments 12/10 13:43 Soybeans Close Higher Again; Wheat Rallies on Bullish WASDE Change Soybeans rose Tuesday after only minor changes in the USDA WASDE report and despite word U.S.-China trade negotiators might again extend the deadline for new tariffs. The later a new deal is finalized, the less the U.S. benefits, as we get closer to new-crop South American harvest. Wheat and corn overcame early pressure to finish higher on the heels of slightly bullish WASDE changes in wheat.
DTN Cattle Close/Trends 12/10 15:40
USDA MARKET NEWS--AFTERNOON CATTLE REPORT 12/10/19
VOLUME USDA TOTAL RANGE DTN PRACTICAL RANGE WT AVG
KANSAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 1,073 WEEK TO DATE: 1,221
STEERS LIVE FOB
238 118.00-118.00 118.00-118.00 118.00
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
835 118.00-118.00 118.00-118.00 118.00
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
No reportable trade
NEBRASKA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 0 WEEK TO DATE: 0
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
TEXAS CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
COLORADO CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: NA Conf WEEK TO DATE: NA Conf
STEERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
STEERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE FOB
Trade not available due to confidentiality
HEIFERS LIVE DELIVERED
Trade not available due to confidentiality
IOWA CONFIRMED CASH SALES - TODAY: 317 WEEK TO DATE: 573
STEERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable dressed trade
STEERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED DELIVERED
No reportable trade
HEIFERS DRESSED FOB
No reportable trade
COMMENTS: Some very light scattered trade in KS & IA, but certainly
not enough to establish any kind of a trend. Significant trade volume will
likely be delayed until the second half of the week.
5-AREA LV STR AVG(FOB)PR&WT: $119.00(1500)Light Test HIDE&OFFAL: $9.22 +0.14
CARCASS EQV INDEX CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#) #OF HD
LIVE BASED $181.26 $161.18 68,180
BOX BASED $209.49 $193.35 59,415
AVE INDEX $195.38 -1.17 $177.27 -0.66 127,595
BEEF CUTOUTS CHOICE (600-900#) SELECT (600-900#)
$221.49 -2.15 $205.35 -1.14
143.90 LDS CH CUTS / 27.64 LDS SEL CUTS / 13.07 LDS TRIM / 23.86 LDS GROUND
BOXED BEEF TREND: Lr/Shrply lr on lt -mod dem & hvy offers
COMPREHENSIVE WEEKLY CUTOUT VALUE: Week ending 12/06 $225.71 -4.63
CUTTER 90% 350# UP C/O: $174.65 -12.42
NAT'L BONELESS BF TRIM: 26.45 lds / Unevenly stdy on lt-mod dem & mod offers
90% TRIM: 12 lds: Wtd Avg $221.83 / Weak to mostly sharply lower
FI KILL(WTD) TUE 122(243) WK AGO 120(240) YR AGO 121(240) MIX: MON SH96/CB25
WEEKLY CANADIAN CATTLE IMPORTS.
FEEDERS SLAUGHTER S&H
Week Ending: 11/23/19 1,840 12,325
Week Ending: 11/16/19 1,184 12,114
Change from prev week: +656 +211
DTN Chart Technical Points 12/10 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 12/10 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 12/10/19 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT DEC 534.75 532.81 535.11 524.82 517.48 58.79 58.53 56.78 25 20 66 71 CBTWT MAR 523.75 523.69 527.92 522.65 519.97 49.73 51.53 52.62 23 18 51 59 KC WT DEC 416.00 415.69 423.69 424.21 423.18 42.17 44.98 47.61 5 3 15 34 KC WT MAR 431.25 430.94 436.08 434.49 434.37 45.88 47.64 48.61 17 14 34 48 MN WT DEC 497.00 497.25 494.64 497.57 519.12 43.79 40.78 41.48 42 51 24 18 MN WT MAR 518.00 514.25 513.14 514.35 534.73 51.92 46.11 43.92 42 41 24 19 CORN DEC 363.25 365.25 367.69 368.67 379.37 35.49 38.08 42.15 10 14 19 27 CORN MAR 377.00 376.56 378.06 378.88 389.63 42.08 41.87 43.43 16 21 22 26 CORN MAY 382.75 382.25 383.56 384.49 395.66 42.25 41.60 42.94 16 23 22 25 OATS DEC 316.25 315.75 318.33 314.50 304.87 52.95 55.38 57.07 15 17 55 65 OATS MAR 294.75 294.38 301.75 306.83 299.96 36.13 41.90 48.95 29 25 18 26 BEANS JAN 901.25 893.06 883.39 893.72 919.92 58.30 50.22 47.57 86 80 34 17 BEANS MAR 915.50 907.44 897.86 907.76 932.86 58.72 50.64 47.90 85 79 34 17 BEANS MAY 929.00 921.56 912.31 921.43 944.46 58.95 50.99 48.36 85 79 34 17 S MEAL DEC 296.90 297.63 294.84 297.77 302.33 48.24 46.54 46.66 55 65 37 24 S MEAL JAN 298.70 299.50 296.91 299.93 304.64 47.21 45.81 46.36 50 61 36 24 B OIL DEC 31.47 31.03 30.57 30.63 30.71 67.01 61.10 57.17 94 81 50 24 B OIL JAN 31.68 31.25 30.77 30.82 30.92 67.36 61.28 57.20 90 80 50 25 CATTLE DEC 119.88 120.04 120.39 119.81 117.50 51.79 56.75 60.07 48 36 54 61 CATTLE FEB 124.58 124.73 125.27 125.15 122.92 46.74 52.66 58.75 45 36 37 50 FEEDER JAN 141.65 141.32 141.81 142.37 142.51 46.06 47.57 51.21 51 38 31 34 FEEDER MAR 142.52 141.91 142.44 142.81 142.22 49.61 50.46 53.16 53 36 36 40 HOGS DEC 60.48 60.79 61.18 61.42 64.43 41.12 41.60 43.85 19 34 16 19 HOGS FEB 67.98 67.45 67.56 68.38 72.35 45.65 43.15 44.00 39 46 19 19 COTTON MAR 65.93 65.46 65.17 65.31 65.24 56.30 54.69 54.15 75 61 49 38 COTTON MAY 66.90 66.41 66.18 66.39 66.19 56.27 54.74 54.54 76 59 42 32 RICE JAN 12.45 12.38 12.39 12.24 12.14 67.57 63.57 57.14 62 40 76 77 RICE MAR 12.65 12.58 12.58 12.43 12.33 67.29 63.86 57.81 63 41 80 80
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 12/10 16:13
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 12/10 16:13 Livestock Complex Closes With Some Gains, Some Losses Live cattle contracts closed mixed Tuesday while the rest of the livestock sector traded mostly higher. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: It was a rather uneventful day for the livestock sector, with no crazy gains but also no substantial losses. It will probably be later in the week when cash cattle start to trade that lean hogs could trade lower if they take the back burner. Live cattle contracts could heat up if cash prices take off. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.62 with a weighted average of $47.68. March corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel, and January soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 27.88 points, and the NASDAQ is down 5.65 points.
