US Direct Feeder Pigs 03/30
DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/30 10:58
DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/30 10:58 Grains Mixed at Midday Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 3 to 6 cents lower. By David Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst General Comments The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 490 points as active trade continues. The dollar index is 70 points higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are lower with crude $1.20 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $2.50. CORN Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with trade heading for the lower end of the range in pre-report action. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants shutting down, with ethanol still trading at a 45-50 cent premium to unleaded as demand collapses with crude scoring 18-year lows overnight. Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure except for export oriented locations. Rains have worked across much of the belt short term to slow early field work with the extended forecast looking drier. Weekly export inspections jumped to 1.269 million metric tons. On the report, the average guess is for 94.325 million acres on a range of 92.5 million to 96.4 million. On the May contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56. SOYBEANS Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade moving back towards the upper end of the range again with overnight buying continuing the recent trend, with the day session finding selling again. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points higher. South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment with talks of strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains very weak. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early planting. The weekly export inspections were soft at 413,957 metric tons. The acre range on the report, at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 ma to 87.1 ma. The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.73, and the recent high at $8.97 as resistance. WHEAT Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with early gains evaporating yet again. Weather threats remain limited for now. Russia continues to review export policies for the short term as well. KC is at a 77-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -39 with wider action continuing. World export business has shifted towards Asia short term with weekly export inspections at 363,881 metric tons, continuing the recent range. On the report acres are expected at 44.982 million on a range of 44.35 million to 46.0 million. The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.69, with resistance the $5.06 upper Bollinger Band. David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (AG) Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/30 12:01
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/30 12:01 Unenthusiastic Monday Livestock contracts head lower as Monday seems to be unable to muster up support. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst General Comments As contracts near the noon hour the entire livestock complex trades lower without a whole lot energy circulating throughout the market. Traders seem leery of jumping into a marketplace without a sure consensus of where prices are headed and find it safer to sit out until a clear direction is established. May corn is down 5 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 478.65 points and NASDAQ is up 208.09 points. LIVE CATTLE Live cattle contracts have stuck with the rest of the complex and have traded mostly uneventfully Monday morning. Live cattle contracts flirted with the idea of trading higher midmorning but quickly dropped back to lower levels and continue to trade there heading into the noon hour. April live cattle are down $1.10 at $99.85, June live cattle are down $1.15 at $88.27 and August live cattle are down $1.22 at $89.22. Cash cattle trade has yet to develop with both feeders and packers very quiet Monday morning. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. Boxed beef cutouts are lower: choice down $1.71 ($251.13) and select down $3.86 ($238.52) with a movement of 113 loads (68.75 loads of choice, 11.12 loads of select, 26.52 loads of trim and 6.61 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE Feeder cattle contracts started the day out lower, contemplated trading higher with the live cattle contracts but then quickly sank lower as pressure grew. April live cattle are down $1.70 at $118.90, May feeders are down $1.42 at $119.50 and August feeders are down $1.60 at $125.50. Sale barns try to navigate through these times like everyone else; trying to balance the worry of will the week be lower, or will producers trudge through and market their calves regardless? LEAN HOGS The lean hog market is taking the biggest hit to Monday's arrival as contracts fall $1.10 to $3.65 lower. April lean hogs are down $3.22 at $5.20, June lean hogs are down $4.10 at $60.20 and July lean hogs are down $3.00 at $63.77. Given the number of hogs that sold Monday morning, it's disappointing that the cash market was able to at least maintain steady prices if not gain a little ground with demand being as lofty as it is. The projected lean hog index for 3/27/2020 is down $0.93 at $65.53, and the actual for 3/26/2020 is up $0.29 at $66.46. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.13 with a weighted average of $58.71 ranging from $52.00 to $62.50 on 11.226 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $58.41. Pork cutouts total 244.70 loads with 222.37 loads of pork cuts and 22.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.46, $72.33. ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com (CZ) Copyright 2020 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN Closing Grain Comments 03/30 14:14
DTN Closing Grain Comments 03/30 14:14 Corn, Crude Oil Both Trade Lower May corn closed down 4 3/4 cents, getting no encouragement from Monday's lower crude oil prices or from Saudi Arabia about possibly reversing its new policy to increase oil production. Other grain contracts were mixed with a $2.40 gain in May meal helping soybean prices end on the plus side.
DTN Chart Technical Points 03/30 16:30
DTN Chart Technical Points 03/30 16:30 DTN FUTURES 10 3/30/20 SLOW STOCHASTIC PRICES ARE DECIMAL MOVING AVERAGES RSI'S 5 Day 20 Day CONTRACT CLOSE 4-Day 9-Day 18-Day 45-Day 9Day 14Day 30Day %K %D %K %D CBTWT MAY 569.50 572.44 555.14 532.96 541.79 68.71 64.19 57.74 65 78 88 85 CBTWT JUL 558.25 559.88 547.47 529.46 540.38 67.07 62.20 55.87 59 74 86 82 KC WT MAY 486.75 490.44 480.33 458.72 467.06 64.70 61.03 55.80 46 66 84 86 KC WT JUL 492.75 495.06 484.78 464.49 473.53 65.52 61.41 55.83 48 67 85 85 MN WT MAY 534.75 535.13 528.42 521.69 532.27 61.33 56.28 50.34 63 73 84 73 MN WT JUL 544.50 544.06 537.17 531.15 541.37 62.70 57.06 50.71 63 73 83 70 CORN MAY 341.25 346.13 344.42 356.25 372.23 30.77 32.40 36.44 45 54 26 24 CORN JUL 347.50 351.75 350.08 360.58 376.26 30.99 32.22 35.97 50 57 27 25 CORN SEP 352.00 356.31 355.08 362.63 375.93 30.82 31.99 35.24 47 57 27 26 OATS MAY 261.50 263.50 263.39 265.69 281.69 41.58 40.46 41.29 30 42 44 39 OATS JUL 263.75 262.88 263.08 266.17 278.47 44.54 42.50 42.86 35 37 38 34 BEANS MAY 882.25 881.38 869.72 866.08 885.29 57.97 52.62 47.24 59 70 67 59 BEANS JUL 886.50 885.31 873.31 871.76 894.64 57.99 51.57 45.72 65 74 62 53 BEANS AUG 886.00 885.75 873.86 873.40 897.68 56.93 50.20 44.44 67 76 60 51 S MEAL MAY 325.50 323.30 322.54 311.82 303.92 65.48 64.66 61.03 38 49 73 81 S MEAL JUL 320.90 319.80 316.53 310.10 306.24 65.63 63.42 58.85 60 68 81 82 B OIL MAY 26.87 26.72 26.19 26.64 29.02 49.80 42.46 38.99 75 79 36 28 B OIL JUL 27.23 27.08 26.52 26.98 29.38 50.13 42.60 38.97 78 82 36 28 CATTLE APR 99.20 103.51 100.86 100.96 110.69 42.85 41.76 39.83 25 55 59 49 CATTLE JUN 89.08 92.09 91.37 93.21 102.87 38.02 37.26 36.13 23 46 37 34 FEEDER APR 120.05 123.62 121.16 121.21 131.09 44.31 43.01 41.44 23 49 57 51 FEEDER MAY 120.90 124.09 120.93 121.82 132.33 45.00 43.24 41.37 26 52 57 49 HOGS APR 53.95 60.29 61.45 61.44 63.56 31.39 35.06 37.95 5 36 60 72 HOGS MAY 53.13 59.50 60.81 63.92 69.15 26.80 29.65 32.77 4 35 24 30 COTTON MAY 50.70 52.06 53.17 56.99 63.30 16.62 19.06 26.04 29 32 12 10 COTTON JUL 50.56 52.05 53.18 57.27 63.89 17.91 19.45 25.41 28 32 11 9 RICE MAY 14.10 13.87 13.72 13.45 13.58 64.67 61.09 58.04 84 61 63 52 RICE JUL 14.08 13.83 13.65 13.40 13.47 68.51 64.43 60.53 90 68 71 56
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 03/30 16:11
DTN Closing Livestock Comment 03/30 16:11 Cattle Close Mixed, Hogs Close Substantially Lower Monday ended up being a mixed bag as live cattle contracts closed mixed, feeder cattle contracts only closed slightly lower, but the lean hog complex closed substantially lower. By ShayLe Stewart DTN Livestock Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: Hog prices took the brunt of Monday's arrival and cattle contracts were able to skate mixed in live cattle contracts and only slightly lower in feeder cattle contracts. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.77 with a weighted average of $58.07. May corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 690.70 points and NASDAQ is up 271.77 points.
DTN Early Word Grains 03/31 06:02
DTN Early Word Grains 03/31 06:02 Grains Steady to Weaker Ahead of USDA May corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, May soybeans are down 3 1/2 cents, and May KC wheat is down 1 cent. By Tregg Cronin DTN Contributing Analyst 6:00 a.m. CME Globex: May corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, May soybeans are down 3 1/2 cents, and May KC wheat is down 1 cent. CME Globex Recap: Equities are steady to higher overnight, but energy markets are tacking on a nice rally with crude oil up over 6.0%. The strength appears tied to a phone call between President Trump and Russian President Putin on which they agreed to have their top energy officials discuss slumping global oil markets. It is difficult to believe Russia will be interested in taking any measures that lifts pressure off U.S. shale drillers, considering that group is a major part of why Russia bucked OPEC to engage in the price war in the first place. Grains are biding their time until the USDA reports later Tuesday morning, which will at least temporarily shift focus solely on to fundamentals. How quickly traders revert back to trading coronavirus-headlines and concerns over demand will be interesting. It is our opinion the acreage data will be dismissed rather quickly considering everything that has happened since the acreage survey was conducted in late February and early March. OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Monday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 690.70 at 22,327.48 and the S&P 500 up 85.18 at 2,541.47 while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 0.67%. Early Tuesday, the June DJIA futures are up 51 points. Asian markets are mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 167.96 (-0.88%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 3.08 points (0.11%). European markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 73.05 points (1.31%), Germany's DAX up 140.97 points (1.44%) and France's CAC 40 up 32.26 points (0.69%). The June euro is down 0.007 at 1.100 and the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.569 at 99.850. The June 30-year T-Bond is down 36/32nds, while April gold is down $23.20 at $1,598.80 and May crude oil is up $1.30 at $21.39. Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.7% while soybean meal was down 1.4%.
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 03/31 06:36
DTN Early Word Opening Livestock 03/31 06:36 Market Pressure Expected as March Comes to an End The month of March is coming to an end, and with it many hope the nightmare that has developed over the last month will end too. Underlying pressure is expected to be seen once again Tuesday, especially in lean hog trade, which posted another limit loss Monday. By Rick Kment DTN Analyst Cattle: Lower Futures: Lower Live Equiv $162.99 -1.82* Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv $75.60 -3.08** * based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue ** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue GENERAL COMMENTS: Cash cattle activity remains quiet with limited interest from either side going into Tuesday morning. The strong rally in prices seen last week may be a limiting factor in follow-through support through the week, especially given the fact that cattle futures have significantly backed away from previous highs. The underlying pressure developing in boxed beef values is pointing to expected demand slumps as retailers seem to have caught up with the surge of buying activity seen over the last couple of weeks and significant demand erosion is likely to be seen from the food service industry. With the expectation that social distancing and "stay home orders" that are in place are being extended through the end of April, this will continue to significantly affect the amount of beef moving through the restaurant systems. Even though businesses are trying to stabilize business through drive thru, carry out and delivery services, this still is a far cry from replacing the "dine in" demand across the nation. Reports that JBS will reduce slaughter plant production due to a COVID-19 case in an Eastern U.S. plant will likely add increased pressure to live cattle futures. At this point, it is not expected that this will affect fabrication or grinding operations, and should have a limited impact on the overall daily slaughter levels, but it still may have a significant impact on futures and cash prices as this is the first indication that Coronavirus will affect production levels of beef production. Tuesday slaughter is expected at 118,000 head.
DTN Cattle Prices/Trends 03/31 08:40
DTN CATTLE PRICES/TRENDS 03/31 08:40
HEAD SOLD LIVE STEERS DRESSED LIVE HEIFERS DRESSED
KANSAS . . . . .
NEBRASKA . . . . .
TEXAS . . . . .
COLORADO . . . . .
IOWA . . . . .
*PRIVATE SOURCES
DTN COMMENTS: Packer inquiry is limited this morning, and significant trade
volume is likely to be delayed until Wednesday or later. Some early asking
prices are starting out around $120 plus in the South, and $190 plus in the
North. A JBS beef production plant in Pennsylvania will be reducing
production due to COVID-19 worries. The plant will continue to run
"fabrication and ground beef operations" and hopes to be back to normal
production by April 14th. Beef cutouts are expected to be lower, with light
to moderate box movement.
NOTE: Feedlots are encouraged to call DTN with any cattle sales, at
1-800-369-7675, ext. 3678. All sales will be listed anonymously and
organized by state. All live sales are FOB and set for 1-9 day delivery.
General trends and summaries from this data will also be posted on the Daily
Sales Reported to DTN page.
